Tough times could test loyalty to public transit

The latest increase in MBTA passenger totals - up 5.5 percent in the month of October - look modest if you live in South Florida, Dallas, or Spokane.

Transit passenger counts in those cities and regions grew by more than 20 percent in October, compared with the same month last year, even as gas prices continued their descent.

"It's pretty amazing when you think about it," said Virginia Miller, spokeswoman for the American Public Transit Association, who has been collecting voluntary data from agencies and has yet to see a system with declining numbers. "In some places, transit ridership not only increased, but hit record highs."

Miller said rising gas prices began to influence commuting patterns as early as August 2005, just before Hurricane Katrina. During a temporary price dip in 2006, transit systems held onto their new riders, she said. And the numbers spiked higher this year when gas prices hit $4 a gallon over the summer.

But gas prices have been falling since July, quite swiftly over the past few months. So will riders keep using public transit?

It's a complicated question. Gas is not the only factor. The weak economy has left many people wanting to save money, opening the possibility that they will stick with public transit.

But if unemployment goes up and commuters lose their jobs, they won't be riding into work at all, meaning ridership will drop.

The MBTA has yet to release its passenger numbers for November - the counts usually are about a month behind. Not only did gas drop below $2 in November, but the MBTA's $2 parking increase also went into effect - which will make it a crucial month for testing riders' loyalty.

Some riders I spoke with for an article on ridership trends last week said MBTA parking lots were still filling up quickly in the morning. But other observers say that is not the case at all.

The blog trainstopping.blogspot.com reports emptier lots in Worcester and Providence since the midmonth parking increase, which doubled the daily rate at most commuter lots. A Globe reader from Stoneham said the Oak Grove lot on the Orange Line was littered with vacancies.

John Carley, a commuter from Sharon, wrote in an e-mail that "Canton Center's small parking lot, where I usually park, used to be full by about 7:40. Now when the train pulls out at 8:05, whole rows are empty."

At Canton Junction, "entire lots now sit empty each morning without a single car in them."

Carley stopped paying for a space after the increase because he was "annoyed by the audacity of it all." His wife now drops him at the station.

Local officials throughout the region have also noticed a decline, said Paul Regan, executive director of the MBTA Advisory Board, which represents municipalities' transit interests.

"It's what happens when you have an increase," said Regan, who predicts people will return to the parking lots once they get used to paying more.

The MBTA would not release parking data Friday. Ian Larrabee, who oversees the lots, said in an e-mail that the numbers would not be meaningful at this point because the first week after the increase was Thanksgiving, an abnormal commuting week. I suspect that means empty lots. I'll keep asking for the data.

The T has received 77 complaints since the rates went into effect, spokesman Joe Pesaturo said.

'Big Red' on the horizon
Despite anger over the new parking rates, the MBTA is banking on trains and subways being continually packed.

The T announced last week that it had yanked all but a couple of seats from two Red Line cars. The modified cars will run in the middle of a single "Big Red" train during a rush-hour pilot program. The modified train, dubbed "Big Red," will begin running tomorrow.

The nearly seatless train cars have extra handrails.

The move is expected to allow 27 more riders, an increase of 10 percent, in each "Big Red" car.

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