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Bay State logs a 3d straight year of population growth

But other states' gains may imperil US House seats

By David Abel
Globe Staff / December 23, 2008
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After a brief period of declining population, Massachusetts has logged its third consecutive year of growth.

But the state's population fell behind Washington and Arizona and it now ranks smaller than 14 other states, which means Massachusetts could lose one of its 10 seats in the US House of Representatives.

As of July 1, the Bay State counted 30,052 residents more than at the same time last year, the largest population growth here since 2001, according to the latest US Census Bureau evaluations.

The bureau estimated the state's population at 6,497,967, an increase of nearly 0.5 percent over the previous year.

Northeastern states have gained population at an increasing rate since 2005, a turnaround from a decline between 2000 and 2005.

Massachusetts was the fastest-growing state in the Northeast last year. Utah was the nation's fastest-growing state in terms of percentages. Texas led in terms of numbers of new residents, with its population rising to more than 24 million. California remained the most populous state, with about 36.8 million residents.

Massachusetts officials attributed the state's growth to its becoming a more attractive place to work and do business.

"We have been working to address the old stereotypes of Massachusetts and creating an economic climate that can be measured in the economic opportunities," said Kofi Jones, a spokeswoman for the Executive Office of Housing and Economic Development. "I think Massachusetts has demonstrated a competitiveness that has played a role in increasing our population."

But demographers attributed the population growth to increased efforts to count the state's college students, prisoners, and nursing home residents.

"We're still not attracting more people to the state," said Susan Strate, program manager of the population estimates program at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute, which collected data for the 2008 census. "The fact that we're counting college students better is a huge piece of what accounts for this year's population growth."

As of October 2007, the state counted 132,882 college students living in dorms in Massachusetts.

Also contributing to the state's population rise was an increased number of births compared with deaths. In the period surveyed, the state had 24,598 more births than deaths. And while 23,482 people moved to Massachusetts from abroad, Strate said, 32,607 residents left for other states.

Secretary of the Commonwealth William F. Galvin, who oversees the annual census, said there's only so much the state can do to attract more people.

"We know the challenges of any Northeastern location," Galvin said. "It's a challenge because of the high cost of living, because of the climate, and because of the economic uncertainty."

He added: "I don't think it's a matter of changing policy. You can't change the weather or the cost of living. That's the hand we're dealt."

But Galvin said he thinks the state has hundreds of thousands more people than have been counted. He cites the 2000 census, in which the state's population estimate exceeded the federal government's count by 300,000 people.

He said his office is preparing for the official 2010 Census, which requires that residents be counted individually rather than by a statistical estimate. If the state's population remains near its current count, the congressional delegation could lose one or two seats. It is not clear which districts might be affected, but the seats are now occupied by Barney Frank, William Delahunt, Edward Markey, Michael Capuano, James McGovern, Richard Neal, John Tierney, Stephen Lynch, John Olver, and Niki Tsongas.

Galvin's office plans to reach out to many non-English-speaking residents and college students, many of whom consider themselves residents of other states, even though they spend most of the year in Massachusetts.

"I'm optimistic about the Census, but I won't guarantee that we'll keep the count in the congressional delegation," Galvin said.


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