A preview of coming subtractions

Mayor to cite need to cut costs, aides say

Mayor Thomas M. Menino will use his annual State of the City speech tonight to describe a dire fiscal picture facing Boston, with a $140 million budget shortfall and unavoidable layoffs of city workers, including teachers and police officers, aides said yesterday.

Officials did not provide numbers of projected layoffs, but they said they are bracing for a possible $62.2 million cut in state aid, combined with big increases in personnel, debt and other costs in the next budget year.

"It's going to be painful," Lisa Signori, the city's chief of administration and finance, said yesterday in a briefing on the mayor's address. "Everything is on the table. The projected gap is too big to not have it impact schools and public safety."

Menino's election-year address, which he will deliver at 7:30 tonight from Faneuil Hall, will lack the optimism of previous State of the City speeches in which he has promised grand initiatives and lauded the successes of the previous year. In addition to the budget woes, the city is reeling over the loss of a veteran firefighter in an accident Friday that has triggered questions over its maintenance and truck-replacement procedures.

A wake for Lieutenant Kevin M. Kelley, who was killed when Ladder 26 crashed into a Huntington Avenue apartment building, is scheduled to begin at 4 this afternoon and continue past the start of Menino's address. Kelley's funeral is scheduled for tomorrow morning in Quincy.

"The mayor is going to face head-on the challenges facing us this next year," said Menino spokeswoman Dot Joyce. "There will be some partnerships announced, but there will be no big soaring announcements about big programs or initiatives. It is a time to reevaluate what we do and how we do it, rather than starting new things."

Menino has not said whether he intends to run for reelection to an unprecedented fifth term this year, although he has continued aggressive fund-raising. Joyce would not say whether Menino would discuss his political future tonight. Two members of the Boston City Council, Sam Yoon and Michael Flaherty, have been publicly considering campaigns for mayor regardless of whether Menino seeks reelection.

While no public-employee unions have threatened to picket the mayor's address this year, a group of Boston Latin School students is organizing a demonstration to urge Menino to protect funding for the arts. By last night, 88 people had joined a Facebook group online for people planning to participate in the rally outside Faneuil Hall.

Maya Jonas-Silver, a 16-year-old Boston Latin School junior, said students have been warned that most of the eight teachers in the school's arts department could be laid off.

"The school was worked up and upset about it," Jonas-Silver said yesterday. "We want to make a statement and show we really do care about this issue, and just because we're not old enough to vote, we're not going to let our voices be silenced."

Joyce said the city is aware of the demonstration planned by the students.

"It's great that they are looking at this process and we hope they will continue to be engaged citizens as we go forward," she said. "There will be some difficult choices for everybody to make and look at."

Boston school officials have been preparing potential cuts of up to 15 percent, anticipating a potential $100 million shortfall that could force the elimination of several hundred staff positions. The school system is by far the largest department in the city's budget, accounting for $833 million in this fiscal year's budget of $2.4 billion.

City officials also are bracing for cuts in public safety.

Signori said yesterday several factors are combining to make the shortfall expected for the 2010 fiscal year, which starts July 1, the largest of Menino's tenure.

In addition to cuts in local aid, city officials expect declines in revenue sources sensitive to the economy, including license and permit fees, interest income, and excise taxes. Officials also are anticipating increases in the assessments Boston pays for charter schools and to the MBTA.

"It's never been this bad in my 14 years," Signori said. "It's ugly, ugly, ugly."

John C. Drake can be reached at jdrake@globe.com. Donovan Slack can be reached at dslack@globe.com.