Cahill considers run for governor

Treasurer may challenge Patrick as independent

State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill has built up a $3 million campaign account and could add another $1 million this year. (GEORGE RIZER/GLOBE STAFF)

State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill is giving serious consideration to running for governor next year, either in a challenge to Deval Patrick for the Democratic nomination or possibly as an independent candidate, advisers to Cahill said recently.

Cahill will complete a serious assessment by Labor Day to decide what political route he will follow, first looking at his chances of wresting the nomination from Patrick as a conservative Democrat in a primary typically dominated by liberal voters. The other choice, said some of those advisers, is for Cahill to position himself as a fiscal conservative and run as an independent in the general election, skipping any primary campaign.

Cahill, in a telephone interview yesterday, said that he has made no decisions about his future and that he has not discussed his potential plans with what he referred to as his political committee. But he did not close the door on any options.

"Unless the party throws me out, I expect to run as a Democrat, if I run," Cahill said. He also pointed out his sometimes rough relationship with party leaders and activists since he first ran for treasurer in 2002, adding, "If the Democrats throw me out, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it."

Others who are part of Cahill's inner circle said the treasurer does not want to appear to be abandoning the Democratic Party at this point, particularly as he continues to raise funds from Democratic sources and because of the possibility that Patrick would not seek a second term. But they say that Cahill needs to consider running in the general election as an independent. Said an adviser whom Cahill consults: "They're very much looking at the viability of an independent candidacy."

In recent weeks, Cahill has created a buzz about his potential for challenging Patrick. He has stepped out of the traditional areas in which treasurers generally exercise their power, promoting high-profile policies that bolster his credentials as a fiscal conservative. He proposed that the state sell slot machine concessions to generate revenues to deal with unfunded health benefits for state retirees. He also advocated using the funds to set up a huge endowment fund to bolster the state's university system. Other revenues would be diverted to the state's rainy day fund.

Whatever his decision, Cahill, a 50-year-old Quincy native, could be a formidable candidate, even running as an independent. Beyond injecting himself into high-profile public policy debates, he has used his office to build a large fund-raising base, hitting up legal bond counsels and other contractors who do business with his office and the State Lottery. He already has $3 million in his war chest and is expected to add another $1 million this year, putting him in a strong financial position for a gubernatorial campaign.

Cahill has recently moved to deal with a political liability by distancing himself from Tom Kelly, one of his closest political associates and chief fund-raiser. Kelly helped guide Cahill from his post as a Quincy city councilor to Norfolk County treasurer and eventually, in 2002, to state treasurer.

Still, Cahill faces significant obstacles if he decides to run as an independent or Democrat. The state electorate has shown a general skepticism of third-party candidates; just once in the last century has a third party or independent candidate come in higher than third place in a gubernatorial race. And if a strong Republican candidate surfaces, Cahill could split any anti-Patrick vote.

In a Democratic primary, Cahill would probably run at Patrick from the right, a difficult prospect electorally. In addition, Patrick controls the state party apparatus and would be able to use it to try to prevent Cahill from getting the 15 percent of the convention delegate voters necessary to appear on the September 2010 primary ballot. Just the battle for the ballot qualification could exhaust much of Cahill's war chest.

"Running as an independent is probably the only path to the job," said Dan Payne, a long-time Democratic media consultant. "Massachusetts Democratic voters are very liberal, and the people who go to conventions are even more liberal."

Beyond that, Cahill has to contend with Patrick's high public approval ratings: 64 percent viewed him favorably in a December Globe poll, compared to 43 percent for Cahill.

Cahill's relationship with the state Democratic Party and its activists turned sour in last year's presidential primary elections when he tried to seek a seat at the national convention as an uncommitted delegate. He declined to endorse Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. The caucus, heavily dominated by Clinton and Patrick supporters, punished Cahill by throwing votes to another candidate.

Cahill is also convinced that many in the Democratic leadership set up obstacles for his run for state treasurer in 2002, including throwing delegates to his opponents and encouraging a second candidate with the name Cahill to run in the primary.

Although Cahill's campaign committee account is far larger than the $450,00 Patrick's committee has, the governor and the state party have created a fund-raising operation that allows him to skirt the $500 donation limit. By using a special committee, the Seventy First Fund, they are exploiting a loophole in the law in which Patrick can raise $5,500 per individual per year, with $5,000 going to party accounts and $500 to his committee.

In turn, the party has paid $628,000 toward the Patrick committee's bills since the fund was created in May 2007. Cahill's political committee can only accept $500 annually from an individual.