Sales-tax increase called a certainty

Both the House and Senate have taken votes to raise the sales tax from 5 percent to 6.25 percent, and their respective budget plans for next year are being reconciled by a conference committee. For tax opponents, the best chance to block the sales tax hike would be for Governor Deval Patrick to veto the ultimate compromise, and for Patrick to persuade several lawmakers to join his side to help enforce a veto.

It is an unlikely scenario, opponents acknowledged yesterday. Groups like the Associated Industries of Massachusetts, which previously lobbied strenuously against the sales tax hike, have turned their attention to several other areas.

"That issue, as far as the conference committee is concerned, is not a debatable issue," said Brian R. Gilmore, an executive vice president for the organization, which represents businesses across the state.

"We're way beyond that at this point," said Senate Minority Leader Richard Tisei, a Wakefield Republican. "I'm against it and don't want to see it go into effect, but that battle has already been fought and lost. I don't see how the dynamics would change."

The sales tax hike is "in both budgets," said Senator Steven C. Panagiotakos, chairman of the Senate Committee on Ways and Means. "I don't even know if we could take it out if we wanted to at this point."

There remains some diehard opposition, however. The Massachusetts Retailers Association sent out fliers yesterday to encourage customers to call their legislators and the governor to oppose the proposed hike.

"We're going to continue the fight," said Jon Hurst, president of the group. "Never say die."

As the July 1 deadline for approving a new budget looms, there are other battles still being waged over narrower provisions. For instance, there should be a moment tonight, as the Red Sox and Yankees are scheduled to play at Fenway Park, when a blimp glides into view over the ballpark. But rather than promoting a business, it will be asking you to write to your elected representatives.

DirecTV is launching a campaign to persuade the Legislature to remove a budget provision that would levy a new fee on satellite television users. The fee, which would add about $3.50 to the average monthly bill for 275,000 Massachusetts residents, would bring in $11 million in new state revenue. DirecTV has also arranged for the blimp - displaying a phone number to call, where an operator will direct people to their individual legislators - to float above Fenway Park and the State House both tomorrow and Thursday.

"We want to make sure our subscribers know about it and help us knock it out of the budget bill," said Andrew Reinsdorf, vice president of government affairs at DirecTV, which so far has sent 7,000 letters and 1,200 phone calls to Massachusetts lawmakers. "We see this as unfair and bad for competition."

Alcohol distributors in Massachusetts have also been lobbying against a proposal to remove a sales tax exemption on alcohol sold in retail stores. A coalition held a rally outside the State House last week, and also delivered what it said were about 50,000 signatures from residents who oppose the change.

In addition to the budget negotiations, state lawmakers are currently reviewing three major pieces of legislation, grappling with complex policy behind closed doors as lobbyists circle the hallways and plead with them to hear their cases.

There are key areas of disagreement on all three:

Conference committees have been meeting on all three issues, in addition to the budget. Patrick has threatened to veto the sales tax increase, but only if lawmakers do not first enact reforms on ethics, pension, and transportation. The Legislature is planning to move on all of those issues, perhaps as soon as this week, which makes the sales tax all the more likely.

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.