4 terms later, for better or worse

But Boston residents still cite crime as the most important problem facing the city. Menino’s challenger, Councilor Michael F. Flaherty Jr. says large parts of the city remain unsafe and the mayor has failed to enact policies that will help. And analysts and academics question how much credit City Hall deserves for the drop.

“Generally politicians take too much credit when crime goes down and too little blame when crime goes up,’’ said James Fox, a professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University who analyzes crime statistics. “Both are wrong.’’

In 1993, when Menino took office, there were 98 homicides (down from a high of 152 in 1990) and 445 shootings. In 2008, there were 62 homicides and 322 shootings.

During that same period, overall violent crime fell 39 percent, according to figures released by the Boston Police Department.

The rate of homicides in Boston is lower than that of most cities of similar size, according to statistics collected by the federal government and an analysis of urban murder rates by Fox.

Flaherty says New York City has a lower murder rate than Boston, and he argues that Boston is not as safe as Menino suggests. But Fox said that comparison is not fair, given that New York City’s statistics include all five boroughs.

Community leaders say there is an understandable gap between crime statistics and perception of public safety.

“Folks, rightly so, take their safety from day to day,’’ said Jorge Martinez, executive director of Project RIGHT, which runs violence prevention programs in Roxbury. “It’s going to take at least another decade to get folks to feel safe again even if the crime rate is low.’’

And the Rev. William Dickerson, pastor at Greater Love Tabernacle Church in Dorchester, where many of the city’s murder victims have been eulogized, said: “We can’t reduce the pain and anguish of loved ones, people who have lost their loved ones, with statistics. When you say, ‘Well, we’re not as bad as Baltimore,’ that doesn’t make people who’ve lost loved ones to murder feel any better.’’

Menino boasts on the campaign trail that the rate of violent crime in Boston is lower than it has been in 40 years. In an interview, he attributed the drop to city programs that work with troubled children and their families and to strong relationships between police and community leaders. He cited as an example the city’s support of the Boston TenPoint Coalition, an organization aimed at reducing violence.

“In the last 16 years we’ve had some good years fighting crime in our city,’’ Menino said. “Our numbers are better than most cities, but I still think we have to work better on this issue of young people and giving them hope.’’

Flaherty, a former prosecutor, paints a very different picture of crime in Boston, saying the statistics do not reflect the hard reality of many of Boston’s toughest streets.

“When I think about the city of Boston, it’s like a tale of two Bostons,’’ Flaherty said. “There are those neighborhoods that are relatively safe, and then there are other neighborhoods where there are people who hear gunshots nightly.’’

Flaherty said city officials and police rarely disclose that one of the reasons the homicide rate is not higher is because many shooting victims are saved by well-trained emergency medical technicians and treated at exceptional hospitals.

“Over the last 16 years, over 3,000 have been struck by gunfire,’’ Flaherty said. “But for bad aim, good lifesaving techniques, and but for the grace of God, those could all be homicides.’’

Flaherty said he would implement programs to address drug abuse and poverty, which he says are at the root of crime. He has pledged to give people with criminal backgrounds a second chance by helping them find jobs in his administration and as street workers assigned to form relationships with gang members and steer them from violence. Flaherty said he would also provide treatment on demand for drug addicts.

Although crime rates have dropped over the course of Menino’s tenure, there have been periods in which there were startling spikes of violence. In 2005, the city had 75 homicides, a 10-year high.

A 2008 study by researchers at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government noted that homicides rose after the city abandoned a police and community initiative known as Operation Ceasefire, which had been widely credited with contributing to a reduction of violence in the late 1990s known as the Boston Miracle.

Academics who study crime said Menino can take credit for his willingness to provide more resources to the Police Department, his efforts to take illegal guns off the street, an increase in job programs for young people, and the implementation of Shotspotter, which pinpoints the exact location of a shooting as it happens.

But Fox said other factors are out of the mayor’s control, such as the number of inmates released from prison and the level of state and federal funding for police programs.

Thomas Nolan, a professor of criminal justice at Boston University and a former Boston police lieutenant, said there are many larger factors at work that affect crime rates.

“There are social and economic forces that exist outside of the police department that largely correspond to the ups and downs of crime statistics,’’ he said.

Maria Cramer can be reached at mcramer@globe.com.