Pataki's presidential hopes fade as Giuliani surges

ALBANY, N.Y. --It is becoming increasingly evident the first casualty of Rudy Giuliani's surge to the front of the race for the Republican presidential nomination is the presidential dream of former New York Gov. George Pataki.

Pataki, out of work since his three-term tenure as governor ended Dec. 31, announced Wednesday that he was joining a New York City-based law firm and would focus on environmental issues, including renewable energy.

At the end of January, Pataki had dinner with a group of supporters in New Hampshire and told them he was not ready to decide whether to join the race for the GOP nomination and they should feel free to back other candidates.

Pataki, who announced in mid-2005 he would not seek re-election to a fourth, four-year term, had spent much of last year touring Iowa, whose caucuses begin the presidential selection process, and New Hampshire, which hosts the first primary.

But for Pataki, who told his wife-to-be Libby years ago that his dream was to one day be president, the dream never climbed above the low single digits in national polls while Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona were well ahead of the rest of the pack. Pataki was the Republican who brought down Democratic icon Mario Cuomo in 1994 but Giuliani became "America's Mayor" in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Pataki told The Associated Press in December as he prepared to leave office that he would decide "sometime early" in 2007 whether to run for president.

"I'm going to continue to be involved in the public policy debate," he told the AP Wednesday when asked about his presidential plans.

What has become obvious to Pataki is that there is only room in the race for one socially moderate, tough-on-crime, fiscally conservative New York Republican and, for the time being, that's obviously Giuliani.

Pataki advisers have begun drifting away. Long time adviser Kieran Mahoney is now strategizing for former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

Nonetheless, Pataki hasn't shut any doors, opting to let the Giuliani candidacy and the race unfold.

That is a smart strategy, said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and an expert on New York politics, given the uncertainty over Giuliani's long term viability. Just this past week, Giuliani found himself facing questions about an estrangement from his son by his second wife over differences the son has with Giuliani's third wife.

Pataki "stays as an odd, marginal figure," Carroll said. "Nobody except him apparently is taking him seriously, but you can make a case that with all this early stuff, people are going to rise and fall."

For the moment, polls show Giuliani on something of a surge in recent weeks, moving well ahead of McCain. But Carroll said with months to go before any caucus and primary votes are cast, Pataki is smart to stay in the mix.

"If it's Pataki against Giuliani (now), that not a fight, that's a knockout," Carroll said. "But is the Giuliani thing a bubble or is it real?"

Conservative Republican strategist Nelson Warfield said Pataki may have another motive.

"I think Pataki sees himself as a potential vice presidential candidate and he's been in the game long enough to know that politics is about keeping your options open," Warfield said.

Pataki did manage to get some attention in late January when he gave a speech at Georgetown University in which he opposed President Bush's call for an immediate surge in American troops serving in Iraq unless the Iraq government proved it was doing more to bring down the level of violence.

"If they want Americans to continue to die in defense of their government, if they want Americans to continue to pour tens of billions of dollars into their people's schools, services, and security, we can and must first demand action on their part," Pataki said.

"I don't think there's anything unusual about him keeping a foot in the door, but obviously he's making alternative plans and that's probably smart," Warfield said.

------

Marc Humbert has covered New York state politics for The Associated Press for more than 25 years. He can be reached, via e-mail, at mhumbert(at)ap.org.