Patrick could pitch shutout

PAST DEMOCRATIC conventions have lasted longer than the hunt for Jimmy Hoffa's remains. Saturday's could end suddenly. Candidates must win 15 percent of delegates on first ballot, unless no one gets majority. Deval Patrick has majority locked. Late-entry Chris, hereafter known as ``Gabby," Gabrieli pressing hard. Tom Reilly shaky.

Talkative Gabby and taciturn Reilly may not get to 15 percent. No 15 percent, no more campaign. How did it come to this?

Political birth control. Democrats installed 15 percent filter in 1981, during Dukakis-King Culture Wars. Ed King had beaten Mike Dukakis in primary. Dukakis supporters didn't want any more right-wing Kings masquerading as Democrats.

To get one-on-one rematch with King, Dukakoids in 1982 bounced sitting Lieutenant Governor Tom O'Neill, whose father was sitting speaker of US House.

Like Rush Limbaugh's drug problems, 15 percent rule won't go away. I'm no fan of convention. Makes candidates spend time and money to meet and impress few thousand people they've already met and impressed (or bored). But it's fact of life.

Insiders by design. Conventions are by definition insiders-only. Democratic conventions are like AARP rallies. Lots of liberals, gray hair, and complaining. About 3,500 delegates were elected by Democrats at caucuses Feb. 4. On Saturday another 1,500 officeholders and diversity add-ons eligible to vote.

Reilly, days after picking someone who set Guinness record for shortest lieutenant governor run, mailed in caucus effort. So weak, lost own town. Patrick campaign, benefiting from Reilly fumbling and indifference, grabbed lion's share of elected delegates. Remaining delegates were uncommitted, a/k/a ``let's make a deal."

No-show at caucus. Gabby didn't go to his caucus. Two months later decided campaign was missing something: him. Now, to get on ballot, Gabby, like Blanche Dubois in ``A Streetcar Named Desire," must depend on the kindness of strangers.

Gabby's move. Starts burning through bucks faster than Michael Jackson. Spends millions on TV spots. Is on TV more than Bernie and Phyl, and is only slightly less irritating. Bombards delegates with e-mails, telemarketing calls, and (ugh) automated calls with tape of candidate's voice. TV stations do polls, and Voila! Gabby's moving up!

Gabby's poll. Hires respected pollster Tubby Harrison. Says Gabby has 33 percent, Reilly 20 percent, Patrick 17 percent of voters, not delegates. Proves TV (Gabby) trumps Internet (Patrick) and press releases and dime-dropping (Reilly).

The pitch. Point of Gabby's publicizing his poll: Dares delegates to knock ``front-runner" off ballot. Venture capitalist reminds delegates of his contributions to public life. Bankrolled many causes, including two failed campaigns of his own.

Gabby's threat. For now, Gabby hurting former corporate lawyer and federal prosecutor Patrick. Gabby is new alternative to Reilly. Clogs news hole. Yaks endlessly in debates. Is liberal businessman but carries none of Patrick's Ameriquest (predatory lender) baggage.

Gabby took couple of Patrick delegates and flipped them. Put them on his campaign payroll. This guy's already creating jobs. Gabby no help to Attorney General Reilly either. Gabby plays eager policy wonk to Reilly's periodically evasive, anti-tax panderer. Screws up Reilly's plan to bury Patrick in TV spots late in primary. If he gets on ballot, Gabby can bury both Patrick and Reilly in TV spots starting anytime he wants.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em. Patrick has majority of delegates. With only one ballot, has once-in-lifetime chance to select his opponents. Or finish them off. Patrick could decide to send Reilly and his $3.5 million war chest packing. And/or pull plug on Gabby's mega-bucks.

Reilly didn't help self with crack three days before convention. Said big payout Patrick got from Ameriquest was won on backs of poor borrowers whom company had scammed.

No room in Worcester? With late momentum boost by US Representatives Barney Frank and John Tierney, Patrick could hit 70 percent. Leaves room for Reilly and Gabrieli. But probably not both.

Usual convention impulse to let everyone on ballot not strong. Patrick delegates fiercely embedded. See no reason to throw votes to Reilly or Gabby. Reilly's got mayor of Boston, state Senate president, and two congressmen trying to nail down 750 votes. Gabby's depending on heavy spending, kind strangers, and soft Reilly delegates.

Value of winning convention. Usually one-day story and temporary bump in polls. But emerging from convention without opponents? Priceless.

Dan Payne is a Boston-based media consultant.