The campaign bake-off
AS THE HOT summer doldrums continue to hover over the race to replace Mitt Romney as governor of Massachusetts, nothing much has happened and nothing much has changed.
Deval Patrick is still the favorite to take the three-way Democratic primary, and Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, who doesn't have a primary, still looks like the best bet to win in November.
But, as the weather cools, this election will finally heat up. It has to soon. Remember, it's just five weeks to primary election day (Tuesday, Sept. 19).
Here's where things stand:
Deval Patrick -- As the front-runner, he has been wisely keeping his campaign below the radar screen while building the best field organization. Since the primary turnout is expected to be much lower than in the 2004 election, probably under 700,000 voters, that will be a huge plus. The Big Dig tragedy worked to his advantage, pushing the race out of the newspapers, off the television news and radio talk shows, and making his opponents' TV ads almost irrelevant. But he had better be ready to respond to the aggressive attacks he'll be facing during the TV debates. So far he hasn't been very quick on his feet. Yo-Yo Ma and the Rev. Peter Gomes are for him, and the ``Killer Coke" crowd is against him. Doesn't it help to have the Coke-folks against you?
Thomas Reilly -- His decision to allow the campaign to become a three-way race has been a disaster for him. He might have been able to win a one-on-one battle against Patrick, but he's slipping into third place now. Not bothering to build a field organization will hurt on primary day. Have you seen a Reilly bumper sticker yet? His TV ads look like the ones you saw circa ``Mondale 1984" with the tired old slogan ``Fighting for Us." His Sergeant Joe Friday act during the Big Dig tragedy backfired when the story came out that he was ready to cut Bechtel /Parsons Brinckerhoff a sweetheart deal of $85 million in recovered funds for the $16 billion mess. Is that fighting for us?
Christopher Gabrieli -- Since one of his major advisers is Bechtel /Parsons Brinckerhoff's lawyer (according to the Globe), whoops, there goes the Big Dig issue. His TV ads have bought him points in the polls. But copying the ``Tim For Treasurer" cute-kids spot from 2002 seemed strained. Well, at least his family will have a bunch of fun home movies to watch in future days with Daddy bringing out the trash. But the biggest question of this primary campaign is: Who will he trash in his soon-to-come negative ads? Should he go after Reilly as a flip-flopper on gay marriage and tax cuts or, maybe the thousands that the AG raised in contributions from Big Dig contractors? That strategy could drop Reilly into deep third place. Or, does he try to take Patrick down as perhaps too liberal to win in November or the man who wants to give drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants? That would risk driving liberal independents into Patrick's camp, pushing him up over the magic 40 percent in the polls. It's a tough decision that will decide the primary campaign. But you know how smart he is. Just watch his TV ads and he'll tell you.
Kerry Healey -- One rule of politics is that when a governor looks good and does well, it usually helps the lieutenant governor. So with Romney looking in charge on the Big Dig crisis, airport safety, and other important issues, she does better, too. The most effective funny political ad in the last 20 years was that using the 1930s comedy team ``The Three Fattys," depicting the three Democrats running for governor in 1994. Hey, Stuart Stevens (the guy who did that incredible ad and is doing Healey's this year), it's time to bring back ``The Three Fattys." And, by the way, why don't we see Healey's ads on the Home & Garden channel or the Food Network, cable stations that women watch in droves?
Another rule of politics is that when a group supports your point of view (example, she is prochoice) and sends you a candidate questionnaire, it might make sense to answer it. But as we know: Questionnaires, like yard signs, don't vote.
Charley Manning is a Boston-based strategic consultant who has been an adviser on three of the last four winning Republican governor's elections (Weld, 1990 and 1994; Romney, 2002). 
