Poll finds 3-way tie in primary race

The three candidates for the Democratic Party's nomination for governor are in a virtual dead heat with the primary election just over three weeks away, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

Former chief federal civil rights prosecutor Deval Patrick was supported by 31 percent of those surveyed, businessman Christopher Gabrieli was backed by 30 percent , and Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly by 27 percent , the survey of 501 likely Democratic primary voters indicated.

The poll, taken Aug. 18-23 by the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, indicated that none of the three has been able to break into a lead for the Sept. 19 primary, despite millions of dollars in television advertising by Reilly, Gabrieli, and more recently, Patrick, over the last several weeks. The totals included those respondents who said they were definitely supporting a candidate or leaning toward one. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

A significant bloc of likely primary voters -- 27 percent -- said there was a good chance that they could change their minds before the primary election. Only 35 percent said they plan to stick with their choice among the three candidates in the race, while 37 percent said they would ``probably" vote for the candidate they are now backing. Eight percent said they were undecided, while 4 percent chose another candidate. The undecided voters tended to be women, moderates, and those less likely to vote.

``It is still a wide open race for any of the three candidates to win," said Andrew E. Smith, the survey center's director.

The poll indicated major gains over the past six months by both Gabrieli and Patrick, and a continued decline by Reilly, once the front-runner. A poll in March by the Globe found that 35 percent of likely primary voters supported Reilly, 22 percent backed Patrick, and 4 percent supported Gabrieli, who did not officially enter the race until April.

Asked about key issues that have surfaced in the race for governor, a majority of those surveyed said they opposed in-state tuition rates for immigrants and support a lower state income tax rate. Just under 50 percent said they supported longer school days.

In the race for governor, Reilly, a two - term attorney general who is well known around the state, was seen as the Democrat with the best chance to win in the Nov. 7 general election. Thirty-seven percent of the Democrats surveyed said Reilly had the best chance of winning the general election, while 23 percent named Patrick, and 21 percent chose Gabrieli.

The poll found that Patrick had the most loyal supporters, and enjoyed backing among liberals, those who are well educated, and younger voters. Gabrieli draws his greatest strength from conservative primary voters and those who may change their minds in the race, while Reilly is strong among older voters, those with lower levels of income and education.

Susan Francis, a 66-year-old home health aide from Chicopee, said that she is supporting Patrick because he represents a ``breath of fresh air" for Beacon Hill. He served as chief of the US Justice Department's civil rights division under President Clinton, and later worked as general counsel at both Coca - Cola and Texaco.

Francis said that she made her decision to back Patrick after watching him several months ago being interviewed on a Springfield public television program. ``In Massachusetts, you have too much of the old boys hanging around," said Francis, who agreed to be interviewed by the Globe after participating in the poll. ``Those running state government are embedded in the network."

Seventy-eight percent of Patrick's supporters in the survey said they would definitely, or probably, vote for him, while 20 percent said there is a good chance they would change their minds. Some 68 percent of Reilly's backers and 68 percent of Gabrieli's supporters say they would definitely or probably vote for their choices. Thirty percent of Reilly's voters and 32 percent of Gabrieli's said there is a good chance they might switch to another candidate.

Patrick's strong appeal to his liberal political base, which has considerable influence in party primaries, allowed him to husband his resources this summer. He launched an advertising campaign on Aug. 18, the first day of the survey, and plans to stay on the air until the primary. Gabrieli has spent $2.45 million on ads since July 21, having spent $3 million last spring to raise his profile. Reilly has spent over $2 million since mid-July.

There is no sign Reilly's role in the Big Dig crisis has helped him politically. Meantime, Gabrieli's heavy advertising has boosted his favorable name recognition significantly, the poll found.

Gabrieli has doubled his favorability rating among primary voters since last spring. Last week's survey indicated that 55 percent view him favorably, compared with 23 percent in the Globe poll in March when he was publicly mulling a late entry into the race. His unfavorable rating is now 14 percent, close to the 11 percent in the poll six months ago.

Likewise, although his current ads had only been on the air for several days when the poll was taken, Patrick's favorable rating rose from 36 percent to 51 percent, and his unfavorable rating -- 10 percent now, 9 percent in March -- remained almost the same. He has had a strong standing in the polls since winning the Democratic Party's endorsement in June.

The poll found that Reilly is still popular among Democrats, with 52 percent saying they viewed him favorably and 24 percent viewing him unfavorably. But that is a drop from the 60 percent favorable, 21 percent unfavorable rating that he had in the March poll.

Mary Mason, a 73-year-old widow who lives in an elderly housing complex in downtown Worcester, said she has been swayed by Reilly's ads touting his proposal to increase education funding and criticizing Governor Mitt Romney and Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey for cutting education. She described herself as conservative on social issues -- opposing abortion rights and gay marriage, both of which Reilly supports -- but considers herself an activist for more spending on elderly issues. She has backed liberal Democrats, such as US Representative James P. McGovern, a Worcester Democrat and a Patrick supporter.

``I just watched him [Reilly] on television," said Mason, a retired hospital aide who agreed to be interviewed by the Globe after answering the poll questions. ``It was talking about the cutting of the money for education. I want to see kids get more education."

The voters surveyed supported a longer school day, which Gabrieli has touted, with 47 percent backing the idea, 37 percent opposing it, and 13 percent saying they are neutral on the issue. Gabrieli's backers were more likely to support the longer school day proposal than those supporting his rivals.

The poll found a majority of likely primary voters opposed to providing in-state tuition rates at public colleges and universities to undocumented immigrants. Fifty-three percent said they opposed the idea and only 35 percent supported it, while 11 percent said they were neutral or didn't know enough about the issue. Both Reilly and Patrick support the lower, in-state tuition rates for immigrants, while Gabrieli is opposed. The in-state tuition proposal drew support in the survey from liberals, from Patrick's voters, and from those with higher levels of education.

By a 57 percent to 35 percent margin, those who were polled said the state should roll back the income tax rate to 5 percent from the current 5.3 percent. Reilly supports an immediate rollback, Patrick opposes it, and Gabrieli has proposed lowering the rate gradually. Conservatives, Gabrieli voters, and those with lower levels of income and Catholics are the strongest supporters of the rollback. Upper income voters, Patrick voters, and liberals, and those with post graduate educations, oppose the income tax cut.

Asked about the candidates' experience, voters surveyed said they had no clear preference between someone with private sector or government experience. Only 23 percent said they prefer a candidate who has held state office. Thirty-four percent said they prefer someone from outside government, while 34 percent said it does not matter.

Kevin Kraus, a 41-year-old photographer from Wakefield who describes himself as a conservative on fiscal issues, believes Gabrieli, seen as an outsider with a business background, is the best of the candidates to tackle the state's fiscal problems.

``He probably represents a business perspective that is more fiscally responsible and would give the economy more of a jump than we've had before," said Kraus, who closely follows politics. He and his wife organize regular political discussions at their home. ``The economy needs to rebound before the state can start to tackle the needs of its people, particularly social programs."

Reilly received the highest marks -- 26 percent -- when the respondents were asked which candidate is best qualified to handle the Big Dig. Patrick got 15 percent and Gabrieli received 23 percent. Twelve percent said none of the three is qualified.