Democrats' wish lists face a tight budget
Little room for expansion
The three Democrats running for governor have all proposed new initiatives that would add hundreds of millions of dollars to state spending, but a trio of state budget watchers -- a liberal, a centrist, and a conservative -- all agree: The state's economic environment affords little room to expand programs.
Christopher Gabrieli wants to borrow $1 billion over 10 years to fund biomedical research, Deval Patrick says he would put 1,000 more police officers on the street at a cost of about $80 million, and Thomas F. Reilly would spend $400 million to upgrade the University of Massachusetts.
Those are merely highlights on long wish lists. None of the candidates has proposed cuts or new revenue to offset the new initiatives.
``The reality is that if there are additional tax cuts or new spending initiatives, they will have to come out of existing state programs," said Michael J. Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, a business-funded group.
``The budget right now is very precariously balanced," said Noah Berger, executive director of the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, a liberal think tank. ``Any proposal to cut taxes or increase spending should acknowledge that they'll likely require other tradeoffs . . . reducing spending or identifying another revenue source."
``It's unrealistic for any candidate to propose new programs until they've made a thorough investigation of the prospects for cutting the costs of existing programs and making them more effective," said David G. Tuerck, executive director of the Beacon Hill Institute, a conservative think tank .
The plans of Gabrieli, Patrick, and Reilly vary, but they all lay out blueprints to revitalize public schools, clean the environment, stimulate economic development, and make the state a leader on issues that interest the candidates. They are found on the websites of the three Democrats running for governor, where readers can click on issues .
Unspoken, usually, is that these undertakings would all cost money, in some cases plenty of it. That's apart from an ongoing campaign debate about cutting taxes. A full rollback of the 5.3 percent state income tax rate to 5 percent would take about $675 million in annual revenue from the state budget, now at about $27 billion annually. Reilly supports an immediate rollback; Gabrieli a phased-in approach. Patrick says the state can't afford any reduction in the rate.
All three candidates contend they can squeeze savings and efficiencies out of the budget, but Widmer said, ``Any new governor is going to find it harder to achieve savings than he could imagine."
There are other demands on the budget, too. Widmer pointed out that the state still hasn't fully restored about $3 billion in cuts during fiscal years 2002-2004. ``The reality is it's hard to do because two-thirds of the state budget is dedicated largely to fixed costs, and most of the remaining third supports direct delivery of services," he said.
Of the proposals to date, Widmer said: ``There's a striking lack of specifics as to how the candidates would save money."
In response to Globe requests, the campaigns provided specific estimates of the annual cost for some of the initiatives they have proposed during the campaign.
He offers no estimate for expanding the extended-day school program launched this year at 10 schools at a cost of $1,300 per student or for revising the formula, at an increased cost, for the ``foundation budget" for local public schools.
Savings and caveats: Conduct a ``top-to-bottom" review of every agency to eliminate waste. New programs would be funded with 40 percent of surplus revenues above inflation.
He offers other initiatives, but has no estimate yet or says the ideas need further study. They include: bonding for stem cell research, upgrading public transportation, catastrophic healthcare coverage, investing in public higher education, excise and sales tax credits for energy-efficient vehicles, appliances, and construction; incentives for businesses that offer assistance for employees' down payments on first homes.
Savings and caveats: ``These programs and ideas will not be started all at once, and most of them require further study before one can honestly determine their full cost and benefit to the people of Massachusetts," said Richard Chacon, Patrick's campaign spokesman. Patrick has outlined what he says are $735 million in efficiencies or savings that can be achieved, including cutting legislative pet projects by $100 million, $300 million in Medicaid fraud, controlling healthcare costs, and eliminating pension abuse.
No estimate yet: ``significantly" increase officers for community policing; fund ``innovation" school districts that experiment with teacher merit pay and longer school days, possibly using foundation or federal money; institute statewide voluntary universal prekindergarten; improve road infrastructure; tax credits for environmentally sound ``green buildings"; and sales tax exemptions for hybrid and alternative-fuel vehicles.
Savings and caveats: Reilly's campaign has said it's possible to find at least 1 percent in savings and efficiencies in the budget (meaning about $270 million); create a panel to identify duplicative or obsolete agencies, streamline state purchasing, curb legislative earmarks, crack down on Medicaid and welfare fraud. 