Patrick's stunning showing
DEVAL PATRICK made history last night -- and he all but ensured that Massachusetts will make history in November. Unless independent candidate Christy Mihos pulls off the upset of the century, the state will elect either an African-American or a woman as its next governor.
This was a stunning showing by a candidate who was virtually unknown when he launched his campaign in April of last year. He didn't just beat Attorney General Tom Reilly and venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli, he ran away with the primary.
In the course of this campaign, Patrick proved himself an exceptional political talent.
It's hard to think of a Massachusetts politician in recent history who could give a better speech. Or who was more charismatic. Or who told a more compelling personal story. All that was important, since this campaign has always been more about the idea of Deval Patrick than the ideas of Deval Patrick.
Alongside Patrick's persona and dazzle, Gabrieli's nonpartisan approach seemed like flat beer, particularly for true-blue Democrats. Tom Reilly's attempt at regular-guy populism also fell flat, while his earnest talk about his record of public service made him seem like part of the status quo.
That was particularly true after the collapse of the Big Dig tunnel ceiling devalued his service as attorney general and put an emphasis on change.
One can't analyze this campaign without noting the disaster Reilly visited upon himself back in January by choosing state Representative Marie St. Fleur as his running mate. That fiasco shook voters' trust in his judgment, even as the jilting of Gabrieli launched the disgruntled businessman on a gubernatorial campaign of his own.
Gabrieli's candidacy, powered by a hugely expensive TV ad campaign, ultimately left all three candidates competing for moderates, while Patrick easily consolidated liberals under his banner.
``He ran an outstanding campaign," a gracious Reilly said in conceding defeat to Patrick.
Indeed, he did. Lacking the media budget his rivals saw as the path to victory, Patrick took primary politics back to the future, building a grass-roots organization reminiscent of that which powered Michael Dukakis's various campaigns. Dukakis has long advised gubernatorial hopefuls to build a precinct-by-precinct organization -- and he found a receptive candidate in Patrick.
``They all came to me, and I gave them the same advice -- and he took it," Dukakis said of Patrick.
After a primary fight that was a powder-puff affair, the campaign will get much tougher now. Expect Kerry Healey to hit some hot-button issues that Patrick's intra-party rivals declined to. As she signaled last night, she will try to paint him as a tax-and-spend liberal weak on crime and captive to the teachers unions.
There are opportunities and vulnerabilities there, certainly. And the Republican playbook Healey read from last night has worked well in the past few election cycles.
Still, Healey's rhetorical abilities don't equal Patrick's, and her political skills, while improved, are uneven.
Further, after 16 years, the Republican narrative has begun to seem like a rerun, sapped of some of its galvanizing power.
All that is why Patrick starts the general election campaign in an unfamiliar position for recent Democratic gubernatorial nominees: as the clear front-runner.
Scot Lehigh's e-mail address is lehigh@globe.com. 