There is a lot of second guessing of the New Hampshire polls that showed Barack Obama handily beating Hillary Clinton. As is known, Clinton won. (Other polls were dead-on in the Republican race.)
Pollster.com has an interesting chart and analysis.
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- A new CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows the Democratic race tied and John McCain leading Mitt Romney.
The UNH poll, conducted entirely after the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses, is the gold standard of polls in the Granite State. It predicted the exact numbers of the 2000 and 2004 primaries and general elections.
Tonight's could not be more important.
Here are the numbers
A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Mitt Romney holding a more comfortable lead ofver John McCain in New Hampshire.
Romney holds a 34 percent to 21 percent advantage over McCain. Rudy Giuliani had 15 points in the survey that had a 5 percent margin of error.
This poll has to be better news than Sunday's poll from Globe that gave him an only 2 point lead.
A new CNN/WMUR poll out this morning shows Hillary Clinton and John McCain building on their support as we are just under three weeks from New Hampshire primary day.
The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, showed a notable increase for Clinton from last week. Among the Democrats Clinton now leads Barack Obama 38 percentage points to 26 percentage points. Last week she held just a one point advantage. John Edwards had 14 percent support and Bill Richardson got 8 percent.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney holds strong in first place with 34 percent over John McCain 22 percent, up three percentage points from last week. Rudy Giuliani dropped to third with 16 percent, Mike Huckabee had 10 percent and Ron Paul dropped to five percent support.
A second poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters out today shows Hillary Clinton with a solid lead over Barack Obama, in yet another contradictory poll this week.
A poll taken for Fox News gives Clinton a 34 percent to 25 percent advantage over Obama. John Edwards had 15 percent and Bill Richardson dropped six percentage points to have six percent. The poll's margin of error was +/- 4 percent.
That differs from a Concord Monitor poll this morning that gave Obama a single point lead.
For the Republicans, Mitt Romney holds a 33 percent to 20 percent lead over John McCain. Rudy Giuliani had 16 percent and Mike Huckabee had 11 percent.
Three new polls out today show different pictures of the New Hampshire Democratic primary race.
A new poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary voters shows the race as close as it has ever been with Hillary Clinton holding just a single digit lead.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Clinton leading with 35 percent to Barack Obama's 29 percent, Edwards 17 percent, Richardson 10 percent.
Recent polls have given Clinton somewhere around a 10-15 percent advantage in the Granite State.
A new poll out this afternoon by Suffolk University for WHDH-TV in Boston shows Hillary Clinton maintaining a double digit lead over Barack Obama in New Hampshire, but does not show the drop in numbers for Rudy Giuliani found in a poll done by CNN/WMUR last week.
And Fred Thompson at 2 percent? Wow.
Here is the breakout on the ballot test:
Mitt Romney 34
Rudy Giuliani 20
John McCain 13
Ron Paul 8
Mike Huckabee 7
Fred Thompson 2
all others 1
Hillary Clinton 34
Barack Obama 22
John Edwards 15
Bill Richardson 9
all others 3 or below
- The poll also found that Republicans most trust Mitt Romney to drive their children to school the most, while Democrats would choose Clinton (no one wanted Mike Gravel).
- A plurality of voters (49 percent) believe Obama is experienced enough to be president instead of saying he wasn't or they weren't sure.
- Regardless of who they liked Democrats said they believed Clinton would be the next president and Republicans said it would be Mitt Romney over all other candidates.
- Wording of the poll misspells the name of former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who is running for the US Senate.
- 81 percent said Bill Clinton was an asset to Hillary Clinton
- 76 percent of respondents said New Hampshire will still have the first-in-the-nation presidential primary in 2012.
Hillary Clinton is counting on New Hampshire as her safety net to protect her in case she loses in Iowa, but a poll released today of New Hampshire Democrats suggests that her lead is narrowing.
The CNN/WMUR survey put Clinton at 36 percent, down from 43 percent in the same poll in September. Barack Obama is in second at 22 percent, and John Edwards in third at 13 percent. But Bill Richardson is moving up on Edwards with 12 percent.
A Globe poll earlier this month also found the New Hampshire race tightening, giving her a 35 percent to 21 percent lead.
Despite national and Iowa polls that also show Clinton's edge getting smaller, nearly 70 percent of those taking part in the CNN/WMUR poll said they believe she will be the eventual nominee.
The new poll of 389 Democrats was conducted Wednesday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
- written by Foon Rhee
A new Rasmussen poll out today shows Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire lead shrinking in response to what might be either an unreliable poll or fall-out from a bad performance in last week's debate.
By far the front-runner, Clinton is saw her 16 point lead over Barack Obama drop to just 10 points.
Clinton: 34 percent
Obama: 24 percent
Edwards: 15 percent
Richardson: 8 percent
All others: 3 percent or less
A new poll of New Hampshire Republicans shows Mitt Romney is gaining ground on his Republican rivals.
A Rasmussen Poll released today shows Romney grew his lead from 3 percentage points to 9 percentage points in a month over his nearest opponent, Rudy Giuliani.
Romney now has 28 percent support compared to Giuliani with 19 percent and John McCain with 16 percent. Mike Huckabee creeps into double digits with 10 points and Fred Thompson lags with 6 percent. Some 14 percent of those polled were undecided.
A new poll out by the Saint Anselm College Institute of Politics give Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton double-digit leads in New Hampshire ahead of those in their political parties.
Also note where Ron Paul is placed:
Hillary Clinton 43 percent
Barack Obama 22 percent
John Edwards 14 percent
Bill Richardson 6 percent
Dennis Kucinich 3 percent
Joe Biden 2 percent
Chris Dodd 1 percent
other 2 percent
Don't Know 8 percent
Mitt Romney 32 percent
Rudy Giuliani 22 percent
John McCain 15 percent
Ron Paul 7 percent
Mike Huckabee 6 percent
Fred Thompson 5 percent
Tom Tancredo 1 percent
Sam Brownback 1 percent
Duncan Hunter 1 percent
other 1 percent
Don't know 9 percent
A new poll of New Hampshire voters shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading their respective parties for the presidential nomination.
The conducted by Franklin Pierce University for WBZ-TV in Boston shows Clinton leading with 36 percent over Barack Obama with 18 percent and John Edwards with 12 percent. Bill Richardson had 10 percent and all other candidates were at three percent or below.
The Republican race was closer with Romney having 30 percent to Rudy Giuliani's 23 percent and John McCain with 14 percent. Fred Thompson had 8 percent.
The poll, conducted last week, had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
A new poll of likely New Hampshire voters by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News confirms Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continue to lead their parties in the Granite State.
But interestingly the same poll also showed that John Edwards and Barack Obama are tied for second among Democrats, a sign while Obama's poll numbers haven't moved much all summer, Edwards could be benefiting from a number of recent campaign stops.
For Democrats, Hillary had 35 percent compared to the 16 percent tied among Edwards and Obama. Richardson came in fourth with 8 percent.
Romney led Republicans with 28 percent to Rudy Giuliani's 23 percent and John McCain's 12 percent. Mike Huckabee had 6 percent.
The poll was taken Sept. 6-10 and asked 618 Democratic primary voters for a margin of error of 3 percent. For Republicans, 412 likely voters were polled for a margin of error of 5 percent.
The Divided We Fail campaign (the conglomeration of heavy-weights like the AARP, SEIU, and Business Roundtable) released a new poll of likely primary and caucus voter in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
The group wants candidates from both parties to present comprehensive plans for healthcare and retirement security.
The results of one question in particular poll will be sure to raise a few eyebrows. Likely Republican voters were asked how familiar they were the healthcare plans of all their candidates, even including non-candidate Fred Thompson.
The results? In Nevada 29 percent said they were familiar with Thompson's healthcare plan. In New Hampshire it was 15 percent, in Iowa 18 percent, in Florida it was 22 percent and in South Carolina had 24 percent with some idea about his plan.
Thompson makes no reference to healthcare in his short stump speeches and has yet to even enter the race much less offer a healthcare plan.
Nonetheless voters in these states told the pollsters at Woelfel Research, Inc that they were more familiar with Fred Thompson's healthcare plan than they were of Tommy Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback.
So was it a trick question or a bad poll?
Gretchen Straw, AARP's Director of Integration and Operations, said they tried their best to not make the poll just about name recognition of the current candidates.
"We gave respondents a way to save face if they really didn't know anything," Straw said. "It was one of those answers were were puzzled over also, but they could be making up their minds about the candidate and the issue from years before and not exactly what they are saying during the campaign today."
Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney retain comfortable leads as front-runners in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released this afternoon.
While the poll had good news for Clinton and Romney, it provided bad news for John Edwards and John McCain, both of whom have seen their support drop dramatically in recent months.
The CNN/WMUR-TV poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center puts Romney at 33 percent, far ahead of Rudy Giuliani at 18 percent, Fred Thompson at 13 percent, and John McCain at 12 percent. On the Democratic side, Clinton had 36 percent to Barack Obama's 27 percent, and Bill Richardson's 11 percent. John Edwards dropped to fourth place, with 9 percent.
Among the significant points in this poll:
- It is the first time in New Hampshire that a poll showed Richardson leading Edwards.
- Romney's support went up 5 points from the last poll. This, combined with his 11-point increase last time, means that Romney has surged 16 points in two months.
- Obama is winning among independents; Clinton is winning among traditional Democrats.
- A whopping 38 percent of likely Republican voters said they would "never" vote for John McCain.
More details of the poll will be released on WMUR-TV tonight.
LAC0NIA, N.H. -- A new poll released today of likely New Hampshire Primary voters shows Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidential race among their respective political parties.
The Manchester-based American Research Group shows Romney with a 27 percent support, over rivals John McCain with 21 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 19 percent. Fred Thompson, who is expected to formally enter the race later this month, had 10 percent.
For Democrats, Clinton held a steady at 34 percent since the last poll taken in May. Barack Obama was in second place with 25 percent, picking up 10 points since the last poll. John Edwards slipped to 11 percent.
All other candidates were in single digits.
The poll was taken June 27-30 of 600 likely New Hampshire voters. The margin of error was 4 percent.
A new poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters by Suffolk University for WHDH-TV shows Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney holding leads in New Hampshire while some top-tier candidates see their support dangerously dropping.
Clinton picked up nine percentage points from when the same poll questioned voters in February. She now has 37 percent support followed by Barack Obama who has 19 percent.
The poll, for the first time, shows slipping John Edwards and rising Bill Richardson tied with 9 points. The poll showed 16 percent were undecided.
For Republicans, Romney held the lead with 26 percent compared to Rudy Giuliani's 22 percent. John McCain was tied with candidate-to-be Fred Thompson at 13 percent. Of Republicans 17 percent were undecided.
The poll question 500 likely New Hampshire voters from June 20-24. The margin of error was 4.38 percent.
A new poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton surging far ahead of the field, and Bill Richardson also picking up support.
The WBZ/Franklin Pierce College poll shows Clinton extending her lead to 22 percentage points over Barack Obama. In the previous poll by the same outfit in March, Clinton held just a seven-point lead.
The poll questioned 424 likely Democratic primary voters yesterday, the day after Democrats held a debate in Manchester. The margin of error was 4.8 percent.
The survey showed Clinton with 38 percent support, up 6 percentage points since March. Obama slipped nine percentage points to 16 percent, while John Edwards also dropped three points to 13 percent.
Al Gore -- who is not even in the race -- and Richardson both had 8 percent. That was a gain of 5 percentage points for the New Mexico governor, while Gore's support declined by two points.
A new Survey USA poll for WBZ-TV shows Mitt Romney leading all other Republican presidential candidates in New Hampshire for the first time.
The poll, taken after the first Republican debate last week, gives Romney 32 percent support among likely Republican primary voters. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain received 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively. Actor Fred Thompson, who has been flirting with a presidential run, had 11 percent.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continued to hold a dominating lead in this survey. She has 40 percent support compared to Barack Obama's 24 percent and John Edwards's 22 percent.
The margin of error was +/- 4.3 percent for the Republican poll and +/- 4.1 percent for the Democrats.
PORTSMOUTH, N.H. – Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards appears to be surging among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire shortly after the announcement that his wife's cancer had returned in an “incurable, but treatable” form.
A WMUR/CNN poll released this afternoon shows Edwards shooting into second place ahead of Illinois Senator Barack Obama, though within the margin of error.
The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, showed support for New York Senator Hillary Clinton dropping eight percentage points from two months ago, to 27 percent. Edwards is at 21 percent and Obama at 20 percent. Former Vice President Al Gore, who is not a candidate, received 11 percent. All other Democrats running were in the single digits.
The margin of error was +/- 5.3 percent.
Results for the Republican primary will be released tomorrow.
A new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters shows a three-way race, a significant improvement for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has been lagging behind Senator John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in many polls.
The survey, conducted by students at Franklin Pierce College, does have a high margin of error -- +/- 4.9 percent -- since only 400 people were polled.
The poll found McCain with 29 percent, Giuliani with 28 percent and Romney with 22 percent. After Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had 5 percent.
A new Suffolk University poll of likely New Hampshire voters shows Democratic rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied and Rudy Giuliani leading his Republican rivals by 10 percentage points.
Among the Democrats Clinton had 28 percent to Obama’s 26 percent, a statistical tie given the poll's margin of error at +/- 4.38 percent.
John Edwards came in third with 17 percent support.
Giuliani finished first among Republicans with 37 percent support. John McCain followed with 27 percent. Mitt Romney collected 17 percent.
The poll of 500 Republican, Democrats, and Independents also found 36 percent of voters believe the war in Iraq is the biggest issue the in the campaign.
Even though she hasn't visited the state in over a decade, Senator Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead among her Democratic rivals, according to a new poll.
The University of New Hampshire poll shows Clinton with a 35 percent to 21 percent lead over Senator Barack Obama.
Pollster Andy Smith said Obama lost some support since a December poll that was taken around the time of his last visit to the state.
Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards had 15 percent support.
All other contenders were in single digits.
Clinton will visit the state this weekend.
A new poll by the University of New Hampshire shows Senator John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a statistical tie among Republican primary voters in the Granite State.
Giuliani appeared to pick up support among likely Republican voters in next year's New Hampshire primary compared to a similar poll last month, the pollster, Andy Smith, said.
In the poll McCain had 28 percent support, compared to Giuliani's 27 percent support. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was next with 13 percent. Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich received 9 percent.
Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain continue to be the New Hampshire front-runners for president in their respective parties.
The poll, conducted by American Research Group and reported this afternoon by the New Hampshire Union Leader, shows Clinton ahead of Senator Barack Obama, 39 percent to 19 percent. Former Senator John Edwards had 13 percent.
McCain and Giuliani are statistically tied, with 29 percent for McCain and 20 percent for Giuliani and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
The poll of 600 New Hampshire residents was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.
The presidential nomination contests for both parties are highly competitive, a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire voters released over the weekend found.
The poll, conducted for the Concord Monitor, found Senator Hillary Clinton losing ground to Senator Barack Obama in the wake of his impressive visit to the state on Dec. 10. Clinton is in a statistical dead heat with Obama with 22 percent to his 21 percent. John Edwards followed closely behind with 16 percent and Al Gore had 10 percent.
On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Giuliani and Senator John McCain were in a statistical tie, with Giuliani getting 26 percent in the poll compared to 25 percent for McCain. In third, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had 10 percent and all others were in the single digits.
The poll of 600 Democrats, Republicans, and Independents had a margin of error of 4 percent.