Bush keeps his distance as Calif. recall fight presses on

By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 9/30/2003

LOS ANGELES -- White House strategist Karl Rove has fantasized about California for years, insisting that with enough determination the Republican Party -- Ronald Reagan's party -- could reestablish itself as a force in this liberal state.

Rove raised eyebrows by having President Bush spend precious time and $20 million in California in the last presidential election, a daring move that ultimately failed. He supported former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan in the Republican primary for governor last year, but Riordan lost to fellow Republican Bill Simon, who then lost the general election. The Bush reelection team has since pledged to make California, and its critical bloc of 55 electoral college votes, a target in 2004, even though polls indicate Bush is steadily growing more unpopular in the state.

But despite the administration's intense focus on California, the White House has been exceptionally quiet on the state's recall election. Contrary to accusations by Governor Gray Davis, a Democrat, that the recall is a national Republican crusade to oust him from office, there is no evidence the Bush team is engineering the effort, and recent polling data suggest voters do not believe the recall has anything to do with Bush. If anything, the issue has been troublesome for the Bush administration, energizing Democrats nationally and giving presidential hopefuls yet another platform on which to campaign.

And although some analysts say Arnold Schwarzenegger, the leading Republican candidate in the recall election, could help Bush tremendously in his reelection campaign next year, political advisers also say there are potential drawbacks, particularly if the state budget crisis does not improve under the actor's watch.

Bush himself has avoided the scene: He has not endorsed Schwarzenegger or stood next to him throughout the recall process. He has said little beyond that the actor "would be a good governor, as would others running."

"There is literally no upside for Bush on this," said a Republican strategist in California who works closely with the administration and who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The strategist contends a victory by the movie star could help Bush only marginally: "I told them, stay out of it, and to the best of my knowledge, he has totally stayed out. It's been very smart on their part."

Of course, it would make no sense for Schwarzenegger to have Bush campaign with him in a state that is largely against the war in Iraq, and in a recall election that has raised the specter of the Florida elections mess in 2000. At the same time, Bush's decreasing popularity in California seems to reflect his political troubles nationwide, as a result of the economy and Iraq, rather than a transferred anger from voters about the recall, several political analysts said.

Still, the Democrats's attempts to link Bush to the recall campaign, and Schwarzenegger, have been relentless.

"The Democrats have, of course, tried to use the White House as a punching bag, and quite often you've heard Gray Davis say, `This thing is Florida reincarnate; they stole Florida from us, and now they're trying to steal California the same way,' " said Larry Gersten, a political scientist at San Jose State University. "But I have to tell you, absent little messages that have popped out from White House personnel in the press, I have not seen any direct evidence of White House involvement -- personnel on leave or anything."

Gersten added: "The Bush administration, they want Davis to survive this. They think if Davis survived it, a weak California would help Bush prevail in 2004."

There are also some old rivals in the Bush and Schwarzenegger political camps: One of the actor's most senior advisers is Mike Murphy, who before running Governor Mitt Romney's successful campaign in Massachusetts, worked for Senator John McCain in 2000.

Murphy and Rove sparred over each other's hardball tactics during the presidential race, especially after McCain won the New Hampshire primary. Murphy's involvement in Schwarzenegger's campaign indicates that the White House is not driving the actor's candidacy, according to several Republican sources.

While White House officials have occasionally checked in on the Schwarzenegger campaign -- and would, despite Davis's tempting weaknesses, clearly prefer the actor to triumph -- they have mostly kept their distance. Schwarzenegger met with Rove at the White House earlier this year, but said it was to talk policy.

"We have a very cordial relationship with the White House," Murphy said last week. "The fact is, they're not very involved in this campaign because they've got their own campaign to run, so Gray Davis is living in a fantasy world" by arguing that Bush is behind the recall, he said.

Veteran Bush strategists shuddered when the recall effort, sponsored by US Representative Darrell Issa, first began; they feared it would energize Democrats nationwide with a reminder of the Florida balloting dispute.

Once Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante jumped in as the only major Democratic candidate, there was no way Bush could intervene, for fear of alienating Hispanic voters. (Bustamante, if elected, would be the first Hispanic governor of California since 1875.) And Bush couldn't publicly urge state Senator Tom McClintock to drop out of the race to clear the way for Schwarzenegger; that would almost certainly outrage the conservatives, including donors, who form the core of the Republican Party in California.

"Had this not come about, Davis would have continued to flounder, continued to have problems in his own party, and Bush could have wrapped the Democratic nominee [for president] around his neck and throttled him," the Republican adviser said. "Bush would have had a pretty easy time taking the state in 2004." But now, the adviser said, that is far less likely.

In the last presidential race, Bush made a great display of his determination not to ignore California -- which in 2004 will hold 20 percent of the electoral college votes needed to win -- as past Republican candidates have.