Centrist Lieberman finds rough seas
Working the middle seen to yield little gain
Joseph I. Lieberman casts himself as the candidate representing America's vast political center, resting his presidential hopes beyond Iowa and New Hampshire, and on Feb. 3 primaries in seven other states that the Connecticut senator insists will warm to his moderate positions.
But reaction to his prowar, pro-free trade, and socially moderate views in South Carolina, Arizona, Delaware, and four other states has been frosty at best. Fame from his 2000 vice presidential bid put Lieberman out front in early national polls, but that edge apparently has since evaporated, leaving him stuck in the Democratic pack or sinking in the very localities and precincts on which he has staked his candidacy.
Surveys show Lieberman trailing Senator John Edwards of North Carolina in South Carolina. Interviews with Democratic leaders in Feb. 3 states revealed deep doubts about Lieberman's chances, with party activists saying Democrats are more captivated by former Vermont governor Howard Dean's surge and retired Army General Wesley K. Clark's emergence.
"He was a big hit in the 2000 campaign. He went over very well. Whether that translates into a primary victory is hard to tell," said Richard Bayard, chairman of the Democratic Party in Delaware.
Lieberman's campaign continues to target Feb. 3, with spokesman Jano Cabrera saying, "That has been, continues to be, and will be our strategy. . . . Feb. 3 is a moderate's day."
To demonstate his centrism, Lieberman has repeatedly attacked Dean, particularly on trade and taxes. Lieberman would keep Bush's tax cuts for the middle class; Dean would repeal them to pay for social programs. And Lieberman wholeheartedly supports free trade treaties like NAFTA, where Dean questions them.
The trade issue may resonate deepest in South Carolina, perhaps the most sought-after Feb. 3 prize, with the winner able to boast of traction among crucial Southern voters. Lieberman had led there over the summer, but a Sept. 30 poll showed Edwards ahead with 16 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with Lieberman at 7 percent.
Though many assume South Carolina's Democrats are more conservative, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise: local specialists said white, blue-collar workers from upstate, considered crucial swing voters, now lean considerably leftward on economic issues like trade, a reaction to huge job losses in the local textile industry. Lieberman's moderate free trade position, therefore, could backfire, said political observers.
But something more intangible may be at work. Lee Bandy, veteran political columnist for The State newspaper in Columbia said, "The thing that's working for John Edwards is that he speaks their language. Southerners usually tend to vote for those that are like them. Edwards has played up his Southern heritage. That goes over well."
In Delaware, Lieberman's prospects appear only slightly brighter. During a recent, high-spirited swing through the state, he picked up the endorsements of Senator Thomas Carper, as well as the state's lieutenant governor and treasurer. But local Democratic officials said only one endorsement carries vote-swaying implication, that of Senator Joseph R. Biden, who in recent public comments appears to be leaning toward Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.
The other Feb. 3 states offer Lieberman little solace. Missouri will probably go for native son Richard A. Gephardt, said political specialists. And in North Dakota, New Mexico, and Arizona, Lieberman has not emerged from the pack.
"Nobody can say who's going to win the Arizona primary. It's wide open. Nobody's zeroed in on a candidate," said the Arizona Democratic Party chairman, Jim Pederson.
Pederson said that an August poll showed Lieberman ahead, "but that's a factor of name identification and the fact that he's been here more than anyone else. Those numbers are already old."
That leaves Oklahoma, the state where Lieberman campaign staffers feel most confident. The candidate, who has relatives in Norman, Okla., has visited numerous times with his family. He received endorsements from state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and US Representative Brad Carson, and his old Yale chum, former senator David Boren, head of the University of Oklahoma, may help out.
But there is no indication from Oklahoma, either, that Lieberman has caught fire among local Democrats.
Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@globe.com. 