Early ads haven't helped Edwards
The gamble by Senator John Edwards to spend heavily on early television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire has failed to provide much bump in the polls and leaves him short of cash for the three-month run-up to the first voting tests in the Democratic presidential contest.
But how short of cash is a matter of confusion. The North Carolinian's campaign manager, Nick Baldick, said yesterday that the campaign's Oct. 15 report to the Federal Election Commission contains major errors caused by a mistake in processing campaign checks.
The original report indicated that Edwards had already spent 73 percent and 55 percent, respectively, of the spending limits in New Hampshire and Iowa under Federal Election Commission rules for candidates who accept public matching funds.
That would be double or triple the amounts reported by Edwards's rivals, who lead him by a wide margin in recent polls in both states. Baldick said the corrected figures are about 40 percent of the New Hampshire cap and 33 percent of the Iowa cap.
Even if the new numbers are accurate, Edwards has still outspent the rest of his opponents in both states, limiting his resources to move up from distant fourth-place finishes in Iowa polls this month and fifth-place showings in New Hampshire surveys.
The campaign's FEC report misstated by "a couple of hundred thousand dollars" Edwards's expenditures in the two early contest states, Baldick said.
"When we had checks voided, they went into the allocation column by mistake," he said. The checks were canceled, Baldick said, when the campaign made changes in its decisions to buy television time.
Baldick said the report will not be amended until Jan. 15, four days before the Iowa caucuses. The state allocations won't be finalized until the campaign opts into the matching funds program in January, he said.
Baldick denied that Edwards plans to bypass the matching funds program, which imposes state-by-state spending limits on candidates and will cap total campaign expenditures at a projected $45 million. Rival campaigns have been speculating that Edwards, whose fund-raising has dropped off dramatically after a fast start, may opt out of public funding, which would allow him to spend freely in selected states and pour in some of his considerable personal wealth.
"They're wrong," Baldick said. "We are staying to the caps and the federal rules."
Baldick would not estimate how much matching money Edwards will be eligible for, except to say that it will be "in the millions." Under FEC rules, the first $250 from each contributor is matchable.
Through Sept. 30, the Edwards campaign had reported spending $2.7 million on media advertising, leading all campaigns. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who has set Democratic fund-raising records, followed at $2 million.
In August and September, the Edwards campaign bought $743,140 worth of television time in Iowa and $389,020 in New Hampshire, but has trailed in recent polls.
In three recent Iowa polls, Edwards was in fourth place or tied for fourth place, an average of 17 points behind US Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who led Dean by small margins in all three surveys. In each poll, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts finished third.
In two recent New Hampshire surveys, Edwards was fifth and tied for fifth, trailing Dean by 20 points in one survey and 32 points in the other. Dean led Kerry by 17 percentage points in one survey and 9 points in the other.
Steve Murphy, Gephardt's manager, said the Edwards strategy has not worked. "He front-loaded his television buy in an attempt to move his poll numbers and revive his fund-raising," said Murphy, comparing the plan to the 1988 strategy of former Arizona governor Bruce Babbitt, who finished fifth in the caucuses that year.
Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, said Edwards's initial strategy of trying to finish fourth in Iowa in a crowded field "was not a bad strategy for them." The Edwards campaign has repeatedly said it hopes to break through in the South Carolina and Oklahoma primaries, which will be next Feb. 3, a week after the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary.
But there are now only four top-tier candidates in the field in Iowa after the announcements this week that retired US Army General Wesley K. Clark will not compete in Iowa and that Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut will run only a skeleton campaign in Iowa.
Edwards staff members have "tried to run a 50-state campaign," Trippi said. "It's not their fault that other candidates have decided to bypass Iowa."
FEC state-by-state spending caps are based on a complicated formula. The projected cap this year for Iowa is $1.3 million; for New Hampshire, $729,600. But the regulations allow exemptions for fund-raising and compliance with FEC regulations. After the exemptions are subtracted, actual spending in certain categories can be roughly double the amounts counted against the caps. Television advertising accounts for most of the spending allocable to the caps.
In his FEC report filed eight days ago, Edwards reported allocating $535,872 toward the cap in New Hampshire, about 73 percent of the limit, and $715,920 in Iowa, or about 55 percent of the limit.
