Dean favored to win backing of largest AFL-CIO affiliate

Former Vermont governor Howard B. Dean may be on the verge of breaking up Representative Richard A. Gephardt's near-monopoly on big labor union endorsements in the Democratic presidential contest. Next week, Dean is the odds-on favorite to win the backing of the 1.6-million-member Service Employees International Union, the largest affiliate within the AFL-CIO.

"It's Dean or no one," said Sara Howard, spokeswoman for the SEIU, referring to an endorsement decision scheduled for Thursday in Washington by the executive board, which has more than 60 members.

"It's becoming clear that the passion of the members lies with governor Dean," SEIU president Andrew Stern said in a statement.

But Stern added that his union's blessing is not a foregone conclusion. "Until that meeting takes place, any speculation as to what the result of that vote will be is just that: speculation," he said.

Howard said a candidate must have the support of a simple majority of the executive board. Some union officials want to hold off, she said, and retired Army general Wesley K. Clark met yesterday with Stern and other leaders of the international to plead his case. Other candidates or their representatives also have been working to forestall a Dean endorsement.

To date, Dean has been endorsed by only one of the 64 internationals within the 13.2-million-member AFL-CIO, the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, with 102,000 members, according to the AFL-CIO's most recent membership rolls.

By contrast, Gephardt has the endorsement of 19 member unions with a total membership of 4.7 million, or 35 percent of the federation. He also has the support of a small independent union. Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts has been endorsed by two internationals, the Fire Fighters and Utility Workers, which represent a combined 233,000 members.

But a SEIU endorsement for Dean would be another blow to Gephardt. The Missouri congressman has been a champion of organized labor for two decades within Congress and has banked heavily on union support, a key constituency within the Democratic Party. Last month, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney called off an endorsement meeting because it was clear Gephardt did not have the support of internationals that represented two-thirds of the federation's membership.

In early-voting states, the SEIU has about 3,000 members in Iowa, and a New Hampshire local has 6,700 members, nearly 6,000 of them state employees.

Nearly half the SEIU membership, which is racially diverse, works in the health care industry. The union established universal health care as its top priority in evaluating presidential contenders.

At the SEIU's conference on political action last month, Dean was warmly received by the activists. Moreover, last month, Dennis Rivera, president of the 237,000-member Local 1199 in New York, hosted a fund-raiser for Dean. He also is leading an effort to recruit union activists to organize key states in an effort to defeat President George W. Bush.

If the SEIU endorses Dean, five of the top 10 internationals will remain uncommitted in the presidential race -- the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees; American Federation of Teachers; and the Auto, Electrical, and Communications workers unions.

The nation's largest labor organization, the independent National Education Association, with 2.7 million members, has not endorsed a candidate for president. But some of its state affiliates have.

For instance, Dean this week won the support of the 335,000-member California Teachers Association. The 94,000-member Massachusetts Teachers Association has endorsed Kerry. And Saturday, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina picked up the support of the 13,000-member NEA affiliate in South Carolina.