Gubernatorial wins buoy GOP
Shift solidifies strength in South
WASHINGTON -- Having swept three new governors into office in a month, Republicans yesterday declared themselves on a path to victory in 2004, portraying their triumphs in Kentucky and Mississippi on Tuesday -- on top of the Arnold Schwarzenegger win in California last month -- as a harbinger that President Bush is headed toward reelection next year.
Democrats, not surprisingly, insisted that the races were decided largely by local issues -- not by admiration for Bush.
But both sides agreed it would be foolhardy to predict next year's presidential race based on an interpretation of off-year election results, especially since both Kentucky and Missisippi are increasingly Republican states, making the victories there hardly a surprise.
At the same time, Democrats prevailed in the closely watched Philadelphia mayor's race, in part because their candidate enjoyed a burst of support after disclosures that federal investigators were wiretapping his office, which supporters interpreted as a GOP conspiracy. That made it impossible for either side to claim a clean sweep and offered hope to Democrats that anti-Republican sentiments could help them in future elections.
If anything, this week's GOP triumphs may have said more about the challenges facing Democrats in Southern states than about the national political zeitgeist, especially given that four US Senate seats currently held by Democrats -- Zell Miller of Georgia, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina, Bob Graham of Florida, and John Edwards of North Carolina -- are being vacated next year.
Southern states have become increasingly Republican in their leanings for president; Bush won every single one in 2000. And while Democrats hold three governors' seats in the South -- in Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina -- the Republicans hold the remaining eight.
Democrats took comfort that the gubernatorial losses did not shift the political landscape much.
"Going into Kentucky and Mississippi, we knew we had uphill battles," Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch said. "The fact is, our electoral map is exactly the same as it was on Monday, with a mix of Northern states, Midwestern states, Southern states we need to win the presidency, and that's where our focus is."
Still, some Democrats also interpreted Tuesday's results as a sign that voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo, and thus booted the Mississippi incumbent, Governor Ronnie Musgrove, and the perceived Kentucky incumbent, Attorney General Ben Chandler, from elected office.
"That continues a trend we saw in California, and clearly it's an anti-incumbent sentiment that's out there," said one Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "It's not surprising, because people think the country is going in the wrong direction and often people at the state level end up bearing the brunt of that."
Nonetheless, success was especially sweet for Republicans in Kentucky, where a Democrat has held the governor's seat for more than three decades -- and where Democrats had tried, unsuccessfully, to besmirch the Republican candidate, Ernest Fletcher, for having played a part in the "Bush-Fletcher economy."
"The Democrat strategy was negative attacks," Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie said. "The Democrats had their referendum and got their answer. The people of Kentucky support Ernie Fletcher and they support President Bush and his positive agenda."
Following the pattern he set after the GOP sweep in the 2002 midterm elections, Bush did not celebrate his party's wins publicly yesterday, though he did call the two governors-elect, Fletcher and Haley Barbour of Mississippi, to congratulate them.
Gillespie was far less cautious. "It is clear Americans continue to reject Democrats who attack Republicans while Republicans are attacking problems," he said.
Privately, another Republican official said the elections may not reflect anything about Bush. "I think the Democrats have universally tried to make the races referendums on Bush and the Bush economy," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "I don't know how much we can chalk it up to the president, but [the Democrats] tried to chalk it up to the president, unsuccessfully." 