Edwards could attract second-choice caucus vote
DES MOINES -- Inside the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night, John Edwards may end up attracting a disproportionate share of those voters who are forced to pick a second choice under the quirky election rules, political specialists and likely caucusgoers said.
"We are definitely in a good position to capitalize on people's second choice," said Aaron Pickrell, Iowa political director for the Edwards campaign. "Everybody likes John Edwards. . . . If their candidate is not viable, I could see a lot of those people gravitating towards our way."
Under caucus rules, voters in each precinct first stand in a group for their candidate of choice. But any candidate who does not reach 15 percent in a given precinct is deemed "not viable," and his supporters will then pick another.
The four candidates leading in polls are expected to be viable in urban precincts, so only supporters of minor candidates, such as Dennis J. Kucinich, will be in play.
Because support for each candidate is not evenly distributed, some of the major candidates may not reach 15 percent in the many small rural precincts, where as few as a dozen voters may turn out. In those smaller precincts, supporters for Edwards hope his positive campaign and rural upbringing could help him dominate in the second-choice voting, because he will not be associated with attacks on those voters' initial choice.
At a campaign rally for Edwards last week at an Ottumwa senior center, letter carrier Dave McMillan said the second-choice reshuffling could be critical for the North Carolina Democrat.
"I've talked to a lot of people who like a certain other candidate, and if they aren't quite there I think he [Edwards] is going to capitalize on that," McMillan said.
The lack of negative associations could help mitigate the deficit in organizational support Edwards has in some precincts, said James McCormick, chairman of the political science department at Iowa State University. McCormick said because second-choice voters will not think of Edwards as the enemy of their first choice, they might instead focus on his image as an optimistic alternative who could win in the South.
"He ultimately comes across as a moderate among angry, hollering other candidates," McCormick said. "He's a fresh face, which also gives him an advantage."
Steffen Schmidt, who has been the host of a weekly political talk show on Iowa public radio for the past 15 years, said Edwards's last-minute breakout has spared him attacks from rivals and raised his national profile.
But he questioned whether Edwards will be able to convert his recent surge, which began with an endorsement by The Des Moines Register a week ago, into second-choice votes in those precincts where he lacks organizers.
