Key precinct reflects wider caucus drama

DES MOINES -- In Precinct 55, a working-class neighborhood just south of the Drake University campus here, the word was out among the campaign volunteers: Phone calls weren't working anymore.

So a small army of staff members and volunteers for the candidates spent the weekend trudging first through mud and then in frigid weather to knock on doors.

"People want to identify a face to the name," said Larry James Jr., a 31-year-old area resident who pounded the pavement yesterday to persuade undecided caucusgoers to support former Vermont governor Howard Dean. James delivered invitations to a precaucus party tonight, where as host he'll woo as many as 20 couples with sodas, chips, salsa, and hot cider before they head to their caucus site.

"You don't want to get to a party alone, and you don't want to go to a caucus alone," said James, an attorney for a not-for-profit legal aid service.

In this battleground neighborhood, one of Iowa's most diverse in terms of ethnicity and income, the four top candidates are all banking on strong turnouts from their key constituencies.

There's also significant support for a fifth candidate, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, setting the stage for possible vote-swapping when Democrats meet at Roosevelt High School's library for their caucus. With hours to go before the big event, no one can guess what will happen in Precinct 55 -- or the rest of the state, for that matter.

"I don't have any idea how to predict this thing," said Joe Walsh, a 33-year-old attorney who is serving as precinct captain for Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri.

Tonight, the battle for Iowa supremacy will be fought at 1,992 other caucus sites -- recreation centers, churches, schools, even a handful of living rooms in rural communities. Turnout is all-important for the candidates.

In the command room of John F. Kerry's Polk County operation in downtown Des Moines yesterday, a frenzied, caffeinated group of volunteers -- including a batch of bused-in veterans from Massachusetts and no shortage of Beacon Hill lobbyists and lawmakers -- went down phone lists of on-the-fence caucusgoers and charted strategy on a jumbo marker board.

At headquarters for all the campaigns, aides were busily setting up baby-sitting services and arranging rides to caucuses for the elderly and disabled.

"You don't worry about trying to convert somebody new at this point," said Dennis Goldford, chairman of the political science department at Drake. "You just want to go to the people you know are yours, and make sure they get there."

Each candidate faces a different set of challenges in Iowa, reflecting their disparate bases of support. Gephardt needs labor muscle in the urban centers and votes from family farmers. Dean needs an unprecedented influx of first-time caucusgoers, not just energetic support in the college towns of Ames and Iowa City.

Kerry needs veterans to turn out on his behalf -- and big showings in the more heavily populated eastern two-thirds of the state. For Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, his extensive campaigning in tiny rural towns, especially in western Iowa, must pay off with bodies at caucuses.

In Precinct 55, where the Democratic faithful will distribute five delegates to the county Democratic convention, Kerry has strong support among Drake students who live in off-campus apartments. Gephardt is a force among labor households, and some of the neighborhood's older residents. Dean has a following among those who want a radical shift in direction from an outsider candidate, or who oppose the war in Iraq.

Edwards is riding a late surge that he tried to enhance with a rousing speech yesterday afternoon at the Drake student center. Kucinich, while not registering strongly statewide, has a loyal base in the area as well, primarily among liberal-leaning students.

Under state party rules, any candidate who garners at least 15 percent of supporters in a particular caucus is guaranteed at least one of that caucus's delegates. A candidate who achieves less than 15 percent, meanwhile, is deemed "not viable," and his supporters can line up for another candidate, stay uncommitted, or simply go home.

With so many strong candidates and only five delegates to go around, one or two of the delegate slots will be in play in Precinct 55, and they'll be heavily coveted.

Walsh, Gephardt's precinct captain, spent part of the weekend appointing what he called his "sales people" -- those who will roam the caucus room to lobby for Gephardt.

Tim Ingram, a 44-year-old US Postal Service mail processor who's running the precinct's Edwards operation, stopped by the houses of likely caucusgoers to let them know about Edwards's speech at Drake, so they'd have one more chance to be persuaded by the candidate himself.

Dawn Van Dyke, a 21-year-old Drake senior who's helping Kerry campaign in the neighborhood, shivered up and down Kingman Boulevard on Saturday, as she made one last round to remind Kerry supporters about the caucuses. For Kucinich supporters, she had another appeal ready: Kerry, she told them, has the best environmental record in the race.

"It's about getting people to actually show up," Van Dyke said during a hot chocolate break at the Drake Diner. "It's the face-to-face connection. It means something. People know that it's cold."

Rick Klein can be reached at rklein@globe.com.