Kerry eyes strong showing in bastion of Dean support
SEATTLE -- As Howard Dean heads into one of his greatest strongholds with the Washington caucuses Saturday, front-runner John F. Kerry hopes to make a strong showing here and deal what some strategists say would be a mortal blow to his rival's ailing campaign.
Dean is predicting victory in the state, whose urban pockets of liberalism and opposition to the Iraq war have supported him from the start. "We are going to win the Washington caucuses," Dean told a crowd here yesterday.
But Kerry is picking up support, according to political strategists, and his record of environmental protection -- as well as his growing campaign bankrolls and his increasing momentum -- appear to be presenting a problem for Dean in the state as they have elsewhere. If Dean fails to win here, strategists say it will raise questions about whether he can win anywhere, despite his vow to stay in the race through March 2.
"If there was ever a state that was good for Dean it was Washington," said longtime Washington Democratic political consultant Blair Butterworth. "He's got the hot issue that still remains hot here: the war. And he's got the medium: If ever an Internet-organizing tool was going to be used, the Puget Sound area was the area to do it. Dogs are wired here. He has the medium and the message."
Knowing this, the Dean campaign is pushing to maintain support in what observers say is essentially a two-way race between Dean and Kerry, who arrived in Washington Tuesday evening in time to celebrate his victories in five other states.
The Kerry campaign has increased the number of paid staff members working in the Evergreen State from six to 20 as political analysts say the state's caucuses are emerging as a something of a last test for Dean.
"If Seattle can't give him a clean victory then you've got to assume he reevaluates," said Seattle Democratic political consultant Cathy Allen.
The Seattle area has been a center of pro-Dean enthusiasm since the beginning of his campaign. Some of the first Dean meet-ups were held here, a Dean rally here in August drew 10,000 people, and a Dean town hall meeting here last weekend drew a capacity crowd of 1,200 with hundreds more unable to get inside.
His outsider message appeals to many voters in the Seattle area, where antiwar and antiglobalization sentiments run high.
"Over the course of this campaign, the party seems to have found its voice again. We've found our soul, our will to fight, to raise these difficult issues directly to the American people," Dean said. "The very Democrats who wouldn't stand up to the president last year are beginning to adopt the message of change."
Seattle is not the only area that matters to the statewide caucuses, but it does offer a huge concentration of Washington's 95 delegates -- about 40 percent, according to Paul Berendt, chair of the Washington State Democrats, one of several state party officials who have publicly endorsed Dean.
"The thing about Washington voters you have to understand," he said, "is that the further you get away from Washington, D.C., the more you tend to think for yourself about your politics. Our voters like independents, they like mavericks."
Gary Hart swept Washington's 1984 caucuses. Michael Dukakis won in 1988 and Paul Tsongas won big here in 1992.
But Dean now finds himself competing head-to-head with Kerry, and in recent weeks he has found his support waning. His crowds both in eastern and western Washington have grown smaller and less vocal. Kerry, meanwhile, has picked up the the backing of such high-profile Democrats as Governor Gary Locke, Senator Maria Cantwell, and Representative Norm Dicks.
The Kerry camp, noting that Dean still enjoys the support of state party leaders like Berendt, was cautious about setting expectations for Washington, preferring to focus on the fact that the senator has now won seven primary contests. But they were unimpressed by the former Vermont governor's predictions of victory.
"He's 0-for-9. He predicted big wins in other places," said Kerry spokesman Michael Meehan. "We think that Kerry's protrade, projob, environmental-protection credentials play very well in the Pacific Northwest."
The high expected turnout this weekend also could work in Kerry's favor. Caucus turnout in 2000 was around 20,000, Berendt said. In the last month, about 50,000 people have accessed the state Democrats' website looking for the location in their neighborhood. Exit polls in early voting states showed late-deciding voters breaking Kerry's way.
Still, there is no question that Dean has high hopes for the state. On Tuesday, he predicted victory and told supporters in Spokane that "Washington state will be the turning point if we win."
Campaign officials rejected the notion of a last stand here.
"It's nowhere near a last stand or a last chance," said Steve Haro, spokesman for the Dean campaign in Washington. "Is it important? Absolutely. Is it a must win? No way."
Alixandria Wade, Kerry campaign director for Washington, said she believes Kerry's successes are drawing Washington voters toward him. "It's causing people to take a closer look at the race," she said. "I think it's really hard to convince Democrats in the country at large that you're electable if you haven't won anything."
Anne E. Kornblut and Glen Johnson of the Globe staff contributed to this report and material from the Associated Press was used.
