Calls mount for Edwards to win today or bow out

TOLEDO -- Underdog presidential contender John Edwards enters today's massive Super Tuesday contests facing electoral odds so daunting that even some of his own supporters concede he is in deep trouble if he doesn't win one or more state primaries.

Edwards held a series of underwhelming rallies in Ohio yesterday, ending his visit there in the lobby of a municipal Cleveland airport, where fewer than 100 people turned up, his smallest crowd this year. Babies cried and listeners clapped politely as Edwards hurried though his stump speech. All day, the normally unflappable Southern politician seemed listless and distracted.

Polls in each of the 10 states voting today showed him trailing Senator John F. Kerry. Edwards already has made plans to take his campaign to states that vote a week from today -- Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida -- but many on his staff view those plans as tentative at best.

Speaking not for attribution, these Edwards aides said the candidate is likely to shape his immediate plans tonight after the returns are in. Electoral mathematics indicate Edwards would have to win improbable landslide victories in most every state from here on to catch Kerry.

Edwards is seeking enough votes today to make a legitimate case to push on. But the threshold will largely depend on how his showing is interpreted and on the mood of Democratic voters.

"I think he has to do a step better than he has done so far. He has to break the story line of Kerry racking up wins," said Tufts University political scientist James Glaser. "He has to win in Georgia, maybe Ohio. But even that may not be enough."

He added: "I'd be surprised if he carried on" after Super Tuesday.

In an interview yesterday, Edwards vowed to do just that.

"I think we'll do well tomorrow; we'll be strong tomorrow," he said. "It's important for me to compete well and win a substantial number of delegates."

But he conceded the obvious: "At some point, I've got to start getting more delegates or I'm not going to be the nominee."

Leading Democrats in recent days have warned that a protracted Edwards-Kerry race would distract the party from preparing to fight President Bush. Edwards yesterday rejected that logic.

"As long as there is a serious, substantive discussion going on among Democrats, we get a lot of attention from the American people, and it's harder for George Bush to get attention," he said.

Edwards has asserted that he has the right to campaign as long as he can collect delegates in each state by winning some portion of the vote. But with Kerry leading by 480 delegates and only a few major voting days left, the math suggests Edwards would have to engineer a seismic shift in the political landscape to come out ahead.

"If he loses a lot of ground in the delegate count tomorrow, it will be hard for him to compete anymore," said Stephen Ansolabehere, the Elting Morison professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Ansolabehere said Edwards will have to carefully tend to his reputation in the coming days if he wishes to continue to influence Democratic politics. Dean, the crash-and-burn story of the political season, still weilds influence because of the sizable grassroots organization he built, an influence obvious in the daily overtures to Dean supporters by both Kerry and Edwards.

Edwards lacks such organization, his power instead coming from the growing consensus that the North Carolinian is the best pure politician in the Democratic Party. "Right now, he's the obvious vice presidential candidate," said Ansolabehere.

Edwards's campaign volunteers soldiered on yesterday, holding events in Toledo, Dayton, Cleveland, and Macon, Ga. The North Carolina senator has been targeting Ohio, Minnesota, and Georgia, which allow Republicans and independents to vote, groups Edwards tends to appeal to.

But numerous campaign workers and volunteers have confided to reporters that they are unsure whether they will be working after the week is over. None would speak for attribution.

"I'm not sure what's going to happen, but we'll just keep working until the end," said one staff member yesterday, as he took down campaign signs after an event in Toledo.

Still, Edwards's diehard supporters yesterday enthusiastically rallied behind their man.

"I truly believe in him. The fact that he's fighting for us is important," said Kimberly Hampton, 42, of Toledo.

Sitting next to her among a crowd of about 300 in Toledo, Sam Bushala, who said he is leaning toward Kerry, nonetheless said Edwards should stay in the race regardless of today's results. "I think he makes Kerry stronger by debating him," he said.

But others who yesterday watched Edwards deliver his trademark speech describing "two Americas" divided by class and income said the senator should consider ending his run.

"I certainly hope that he would drop out," said Robert Fredericks, 54, of Toledo. "Bush has $150 million to spend, and Kerry needs to focus on him."

That sentiment was echoed by Zack Pullin, 22, of Toledo, who said that if Edwards continues after Super Tuesday without any additional electoral wins, he may harm his future political career.

"I think it would make Democrats look down on him. It would make him look real bad," he said, even as he wore an Edwards sticker on his shirt.

As yet another morning press conference came to an end yesterday, one reporter asked Edwards, weary from long and intense days of campaigning, how he felt. Edwards grinned.

"I'm having fun. Sure, I'm having fun," he said.

Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@globe.com.