Kerry defies history, targets Virginia

PORTSMOUTH, Va. -- Hours before Senator John F. Kerry stepped foot in this Navy town for yesterday's Memorial Day parade, his volunteers had already made a convert out of a longtime Republican voter, 84-year-old Elva Spiaggi, by talking up two issues that are a festering preoccupation here: the economy and the Iraq war.

"I'm going to give Kerry a chance to do what he says he'll do -- straighten out the taxes, fix Medicare, and get our boys home," said Spiaggi, perched in her wheelchair on a sidewalk an arm's length from the veterans and politicians marching down Crawford Street. "I voted for Bush in 2000, but I think he's created more problems than he can solve."

Spiaggi, whose granddaughter just returned from military service in Iraq, was exactly the type of voter that spurred Kerry's unusual visit to southern Virginia yesterday. No Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 -- Jimmy Carter's near-Southern sweep missed Virginia in 1976 -- and the last two Southern nominees of the party, Al Gore and Bill Clinton, made far less effort in Virginia than Kerry is attempting. Bush beat Gore in Virginia in 2000 by 220,000 votes, or 52 percent to 44 percent,

Yet the Massachusetts lawmaker and his advisers said they believe that Republican-leaning veterans, military families, and the financially disheartened can be wooed and won -- and even if they cannot, the Bush campaign will be forced to spend money to hold the state in its win column. Tomorrow, as part of a 19-state, $17 million advertising push, Kerry will begin airing commercials on cable TV in Democratic-leaning northern Virginia and on network stations in urban centers like Richmond and Norfolk and the more rural, western city of Roanoke.

"Virginia," Kerry said yesterday with a lilt in his voice, speaking to reporters on his campaign plane en route here, the home of the Norfolk Naval Shipyard. "We're going to lots of states. We're competing and running for president. We're going around the country.

"I don't care what's usual or not usual," he said. "We're going after a lot of places. There's not much that is usual about this campaign."

Yet beyond reminding voters that he was a "Navy guy" during the Vietnam War -- which Kerry did three times in local news interviews yesterday -- and promising to delay military base closings until they could be reevaluated in a wartime light, the Democrat is not offering Virginians anything markedly different than the past standard-bearers in his party, political analysts said yesterday.

"I think it's possible that Virginia could be competitive if Kerry is winning nationally by a substantial margin, but there is no indication that Virginia is in play in a very close presidential election," said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia professor who tracks state and national politics. "Kerry's interest here seems odd to an awful lot of people who know this state -- even some of the Kerry people on the ground here don't consider Virginia competitive. But they may be trying to send a message that Bush may be in trouble in places that Republicans hadn't imagined."

Steve Schmidt, a spokesman for the Bush campaign, suggested that the GOP might make a tit-for-tat response by plowing more money into its effort in a state that is considered relatively safe for Democrats.

"Their decision to spend advertising dollars in Virginia is a strange and curious decision, particularly when states like New Jersey are nearly dead-even in the public polls," Schmidt said.

Along the parade route, scores of Virginians waved "Kerry for President" and "Veterans 4 Kerry" signs and wore campaign buttons that had been handed out earlier by the senator's aides; there were also pockets of Bush supporters waving "W" signs. Among those simply waving small American flags or watching the parade from their plastic folding chairs were people like Spiaggi who tend to vote Republican but are leaning toward, or thinking about supporting, the presumed Democratic nominee.

"A couple months ago I thought Kerry'd be a hell of a president, but he's changed so much. Before he was talking the truth, but now all he seems to do is just bash the president," said David Rotundo, a 62-year-old Navy veteran who missed action in Vietnam because of illness. "But I'm listening to Kerry. Being commander in chief is the number one priority of the president. Bush has really hurt the morale of our troops."

Kerry attended the parade with Governor Mark R. Warner, a Democrat who is seen in some circles as possible running mate material, and several in the crowd chanted "Kerry-Warner, Kerry-Warner" as the two men shook hands with parade-watchers. Earlier, as the two flew on Kerry's plane, the senator praised Warner to reporters for negotiating a new budget plan that includes new taxes in a state known for fiscally conservative government.

"He put together a tremendous coalition, a lot of moderate Republicans," Kerry said. "It's a big deal, not easy." Kerry termed as "ser-en-dip-i-ty" the fact that the two men sat near each other Saturday at the formal dedication of the new World War II memorial in Washington and spent the holiday in Warner's home state.

The youthful-looking Warner, who was teased by one reporter about whether he was old enough to be vice president (he is, at 49), said yesterday that the vice presidency "didn't come up" in his talks with Kerry and predicted that Kerry could appeal to fellow combat veterans and Virginians who vote chiefly on economic concerns.

"Senator Kerry's war record is very powerful," Warner said. "The economy in northern Virginia is the heart of the Internet, technology community. And among high-tech voters, I believe John Kerry will do very well."

Patrick Healy can be reached at phealy@globe.com.