 Senator John F. Kerry thanked supporters in Pittsburgh after announcing his pick yesterday. (Globe Staff Photo / Dina Rudick) |
NEWS ANALYSIS
Kerry takes yet another step toward a Clintonian futureWASHINGTON -- The choice of John Edwards as the presumptive vice presidential nominee says more about John F. Kerry than about Edwards.
It says Kerry is comfortable enough with his own national security experience to select a running mate with little background in foreign policy or defense. It says Kerry is sufficiently satisfied with the job that surrogates such as Edward M. Kennedy, Al Gore, Howard Dean, and Moveon.org have done in building a case against President Bush that he can choose a running mate who is not an attack dog. It says Kerry believes that working-class voters are a swing constituency across the country and that he needs more help with them than with upscale professionals. Edwards's famous stump speech, speaking of ''Two Americas," one for the privileged and one for the working people, cemented the North Carolina senator's reputation as one of the Democrats' great persuaders, a worthy heir to Bill Clinton's combination of Southern evangelist and snake oil salesman. Except for Edwards, nobody running on a national ticket has anything like the Clinton style. ''He has that ability to look into the camera and say 'I love you,' and you believe it," said Rick Davis, a Republican strategist and former campaign manager for Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. But while Democrats cheered the injection of Edwards's energy and passion into their ticket, even they had to wonder if this is the year for wooing voters with promises of a fairer tax deal while cities scramble to prepare for possible terrorist attacks. And even as Davis and other Republicans were acknowledging Edwards's appeal, they were zeroing in on his weakness. ''I don't think you can convince anyone that John Edwards is the kind of person you want to be president today," said Davis. Just finishing his first term in the Senate, Edwards serves on the Select Intelligence Committee, but otherwise has concentrated on domestic issues, including the committees on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, and Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Kerry's short list of vice presidential possibilities was loaded with candidates who had conspicuous national security experience, including former NATO commander Wesley K. Clark, former Defense Secretary William S. Cohen, and former Georgia senator Sam Nunn, a longtime defense hawk. Richard A. Gephardt, former House minority leader, was known mostly for his domestic policies, but played a pivotal role in securing congressional approval for the war in Iraq. Kerry faced pressure to bolster the ticket's national security credentials. Even though Kerry is a decorated Navy veteran and a 20-year senator with an emphasis on foreign policy, Republicans have attacked him as insufficiently vigilant on national security; polls consistently suggest Kerry is trusted by more voters in handling the economy, health care, and the environment, while Bush prevails only on stopping terrorism. In fact, a reasonable interpretation of the polls is that Kerry can lose only on terrorism. Were Kerry to neutralize that issue, as well, he might sail to victory. But the Massachusetts senator apparently looked ahead and saw a campaign more rooted in domestic issues, with an economy on the rebound, and felt the ticket needed to make a compelling case for how it would transform people's lives. Kerry and Edwards share similar beliefs about the need to repeal the portions of Bush's tax cuts that unduly favor the wealthy, but Edwards -- a famed trial lawyer -- casts the argument in moral terms. ''I think the biggest vulnerability of Bush is that his tax policies undermine the ethic that built the middle class," said Al From, founder and chief executive officer of the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist group that helped launch Clinton's presidential campaign. ''Edwards, more than anyone else, has made a values argument against the Bush tax policies," said From, predicting that Edwards will successfully portray the Republicans as the party of privilege. Of Edwards, From added, ''He has Clinton's ability to frame issues, which is an important thing in a presidential campaign." But a vice presidential nominee serves as more than just a campaigner: He is a would-be president, prepared to step into the Oval Office at any moment and, in the meantime, play some sort of policy role in the White House. Edwards will have his best chance to show his fitness for the job in a single debate with Vice President Dick Cheney. Having built a case for war with Iraq that turned out to be flawed and having crafted an energy policy that helped his friends in the oil industry, Cheney is a figure of suspicion. He's also a figure of respect, some of it grudging, for his knowledge and skills in helping guide three administrations. Squaring off against Edwards, Cheney is certain to stress his long experience in national security, presenting himself the way former senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas did against the much younger Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana in 1988. Cheney might even borrow Bentsen's famous line about Quayle and President Kennedy, telling Edwards, ''You're no Bill Clinton." Edwards will be hard-pressed to hold his own. Whether or not he proves to be as supple a debater as Clinton, Edwards's arrival on the ticket marks yet another step by Kerry toward a Clintonian future. Since wrapping up the primaries with impressive victories, Kerry has signed on Gene Sperling, Clinton's former economics adviser, to write his tax and budget plans; drawn liberally from former Clinton aides Samuel ''Sandy" R. Berger and Richard C. Holbrooke on foreign policy; and now chalked up a running mate who openly emulates Clinton's ''I feel your pain" way of campaigning.
The 2004 election is looking a lot like 1992, at least in terms of the characters lined up on both sides. Kerry, for his part, is clearly banking on the same outcome. © Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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