NATO proclaims victory in Bosnia

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina -- When NATO forces first came to Bosnia nearly a decade ago, they lived in heavily guarded compounds, patrolled the streets in tanks, and often wore full body armor.

Now, as part of an effort to bring the troops closer to the people they are protecting, scores of soldiers rent ordinary homes in communities throughout the country, shop in neighborhood stores, eat at local cafes, and conduct what military officials call "soft patrols" without flak jackets or helmets.

The changes, which one military official called "the next step in the evolution of peacekeeping," leave troops in Sarajevo exposed to danger in a way that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. That NATO is making such a move now is an indication of how secure Bosnia has become as the alliance prepares to wrap up its nine-year mission here at the end of the year.

In December, NATO will formally turn over its truce enforcement mission to a force led by the European Union. Military officials here say they are doing so with the satisfaction of having helped to turn around what was once considered the continent's most hopeless case.

"We have a success," said Lieutenant Commander Mark Hope of Britain's Royal Navy, a spokesman for the NATO force in Bosnia. "We've reached the point of achieving a safe environment."

Hope's statement on the mission, NATO's first post-Cold War operation, has been echoed by analysts, politicians, international officials, and Bosnians themselves, yet Bosnia's transformation is far from complete. The country still faces daunting problems, including organized crime, corruption and lingering ethnic tensions, and many analysts and officials worry that future instability in neighboring Serbia-Montenegro could still spill over into Bosnia.

But Bosnia today bears little resemblance to the war-torn and violent place that NATO forces found when they arrived.

When troops came in 1995, the country had been devastated by a brutal ethnic war that had killed more than 200,000, had displaced 2 million, and had destroyed or damaged 70 percent to 80 percent of the country's homes.

The forces will leave a country where the killing has stopped, where freedom of movement has been restored, and where more than one million refugees have reclaimed their property. Moreover, Bosnia now has a functioning democracy, though often chaotic and contentious. And Bosnian officials are seriously talking about eventual membership in NATO and the European Union.

"If we could do it over again, I don't know how we could do it better," said Major General James Darden of the US Army, the official in charge of drawing down the US presence in Bosnia, referring to the NATO mission. "It could be considered a model or a template" for future international peacekeeping missions.

Officials and analysts say that one of the reasons for the success was that the initial NATO intervention was massive; more than 60,000 troops, including 20,000 US soldiers, or roughly one soldier for every 58 citizens in this country of 3.5 million. The troops were well trained, and their intent to help the country was obvious to the Bosnians.

Troop levels have been reduced to about 7,000 soldiers, and the new EU force that will take over in December will consist of about the same amount of troops.

"They were respected from day one," said Senad Slatina, an analyst for the Sarajevo office of the International Crisis Group, a think tank based in Brussels. Slatina also covered the war in Bosnia as a journalist.

Military officials such as Darden and Hope spread around the credit, pointing out that the mission was successful because it was part of a multinational effort. Not only did half a million troops from more than 30 countries serve in Bosnia at some point, but a myriad of international organizations spearheaded efforts to rebuild the nation's devastated institutions and infrastructure and improve the lives of average Bosnians.

The United Nations, and later the EU, trained and vetted a new police force and Border Service that has earned high marks for professionalism. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe organized and monitored several elections in the early postwar years.

"We have done everything we set out to do," Darden said. "That is not to say there is not still work to be done."

NATO is ending its mission at a time of potentially destabilizing changes in the Balkans, which could pose problems for the new EU truce force.

Many analysts expect Serbia and Montenegro, the last remnant of the former Yugoslavia, to decide next year whether it will remain united in a loose federation or break into two separate countries.

Moreover, final status talks on Kosovo are scheduled for 2005. Should the province win independence from Serbia, many analysts say, nationalists in Belgrade may try to make territorial claims in Bosnia as compensation for losing what many Serbs consider an integral part of their country.

"Several converging political trends indicate the potential for a new upsurge in regional instability," read a recent report by the Sarajevo office of the International Crisis Group. "Historically, conflicts in the Balkans have tended to spill over into Bosnia, primarily because of its multiethnic nature, its geographic position, and its neighbors' claims on its territory."

Inside Bosnia, the new EU peacekeeping force will also face challenges, including combating organized crime, narcotics, and weapons smuggling.

Moreover, nationalist sentiments sometimes flare in the country's Serb Republic and in Croat-dominated parts of Herzegovina; scores of unsecured weapons depots and warehouses remain throughout the country; and indicted war crimes suspects such as Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic are still at large.

Bosnia also faces difficult political choices. The 1995 Dayton Peace Accord, which ended the war, divided the country into a Bosniak-Croat federation and a Serb republic, and provided for a weak central government. An international overseer, called the high representative, was installed and given broad powers to dismiss officials and to unilaterally impose legal decrees.

With an eye to eventually joining the EU and NATO's Partnership for Peace program, politicians have been working with Bosnia's international overseers to integrate the country's military and police, and to create a stronger and more effective central government. The efforts, however, have run into opposition from nationalist officials.

After turning over its formal duties to the European Union, NATO will maintain a presence in Bosnia, with a small headquarters in Sarajevo. The scaled-down offices, which will be under the command of a US general, will provide Bosnian authorities advice on defense reform, assist in counterterrorism efforts and the detention of war-crimes suspects, and share intelligence with the EU.

The United States plans to retain hundreds of troops, mostly at the new NATO headquarters, according to military officials. The United States may also keep some troops based in the country as part of an agreement with the Bosnian government.

Some analysts and officials say they worry that the new arrangement may cause turf battles and rivalries among NATO, the EU, and the United States. But officials and analysts also say that since the European Union has invested much prestige in its mission, the effort is likely to succeed.

"Brussels will not forget Bosnia-Herzegovina," a senior Western official in Bosnia said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "They can't fail, so therefore Bosnia can't fail."