For job seekers, economic gloom persists

ALLENTOWN, Pa. -- Francine Geosits can audit and review an expense report in her sleep but does not need those skills in her current job serving hamburgers and whiskey sours at a local bar and grill.

Until April, when she was laid off from her $39,000 accounting job at Dun & Bradstreet, Geosits was living a middle-class life filled with vacations and frequent trips to the grocery store, the doctor's office, and the mall, where she lavished her children with brand-name clothes.

This year there have been no vacations and few trips to the doctor, because she lost her health insurance. Her three children have received only what they need, not what they want. The 41-year-old mother had to turn to her parents for a loan to pay her property taxes.

"I've always been able to take care of myself and pay my own taxes, but now I've considered filing bankruptcy," Geosits said during a large job fair on the fairgrounds of this former industrial city. "I can barely hold onto the house."

This month the US Labor Department reported the nation added 144,000 new jobs, but a wobbly economy that has plagued President Bush almost since he took office still casts a shadow over middle- and working-class Americans, especially in industrial states like Pennsylvania, where layoffs have become common. The lower wages they earn, the fewer benefits they receive, and the debts they owe to relatives have left many people dismissing any suggestions that the economy is improving.

"Economists are scratching their heads and wondering why voters haven't caught up with them," said Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. "If you go back 10 years and dropped these numbers, you would say this is a slam dunk for the reelection of a president. We have thrown out incumbent presidents when unemployment rates were 7 percent or lower, but now it's [about] 5.5 percent, and it has been lower in Pennsylvania and Missouri and in some other battleground states, and still voters are saying, 'Well, maybe I don't have pneumonia anymore, but I still have a pretty good headache.' "

Despite the moderate growth in jobs this year, Matthew Fellowes, an analyst with the Brookings Institution, cited rising health insurance premiums, increases in personal bankruptcies, higher college costs, and the soaring number of people without medical coverage as evidence that the overall quality of life has diminished for some Americans.

"You have very few jobs created, then all these quality-of-life indicators that look terrible, so it's not surprising that Bush hasn't been given a lot of credit for these numbers," Fellowes said.

Still, Bush tries to get across his case for optimism, despite a net loss of 913,000 jobs while he has been president. On the same day more than 5,000 job seekers filled William T. Harris Agriculture Hall at Allentown Fairgrounds last week, Bush was visiting the state for the 37th time and touting better economic times.

Some political or economic specialists like Madonna say one reason Bush does not get more credit for an improving economy is that it takes a while for people who have been through tough times to feel good again about their financial circumstances.

"In 1992, the lag time was nine months, but I have no clue when we get out of this lag time," Madonna said.

A year ago, Raymond Spencer, manager of business and industry relations for Pennsylvania CareerLink of Lehigh Valley, considered canceling the Allentown job fair because of lack of participation by big corporations. This year, 116 employers participated, many of them large corporations. But if their presence was an indication that the economy is improving in Pennsylvania, the long snaking lines of job seekers showed how much the local economy has not.

"You really have to show you want the position," said Geosits as she stood in line to talk to representatives of Olympus America Inc., the camera maker, which is moving its headquarters to Lehigh Valley. She has already called the company, plans to file an application online, and attend another job fair the company will hold soon.

As she began divorce proceedings this year, Geosits's job in the accounting department at Dun & Bradstreet allowed her and her three children a comfortable life. After the job was eliminated, she went on unemployment, but the $300 weekly check was not enough to sustain the family, so she took a part-time job as a waitress. When things became especially tight, she turned to her parents. Still, what seems to bother her most is that she is unable to give her children the things they are used to having.

"My kids want brand-name clothes. I can certainly buy them off the rack, but can't go to the store and buy a Hilfiger 'hoodie' jacket," said Geosits, who lives in nearby Bethlehem.

"They notice there is not as much food in the refrigerator. They say, 'Mom, it's time to go to the grocery store.' I say, 'There's food in the fridge. Eat what's in there.' "

Standing in line at the job fair behind Geosits, Kevin Lindaman, 34, chatted with other professionals about the layoffs that have swept across the state.

"I'm basically doing the same job, but without the benefits," said Lindaman, who was laid off from his engineering job in 2003 and retained as a consultant four different times by the same company. He is paid extra to compensate for health care costs, but that does not provide the financial stability he wants for his wife and child. So far, he has been able to make ends meet, he said, but misses the higher salary he believes his college education warrants.

"Bush is saying he is generating jobs, but half these jobs don't pay," Lindaman said. "I believe Bush has a good Christian background and so does Kerry, but Bush's economics" are awful.

Often a bellwether for the country, Pennsylvania saw a slight net gain of 43,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, according to the latest data from the state Department of Labor and Industry, with 6,400 added in August. But the new jobs are concentrated in sectors such as retail and trade that pay 30 percent less and are about 25 percent less likely to provide health care than the higher-paying manufacturing jobs that were lost, according to department spokesman John Curry.

Despite recent growth, the state has lost 75,000 jobs overall since the recession began in March 2001. When the jobs are measured against the growth of the working-age population, the shortfall rises to 176,000 over the same period, according to Stephen Herzenberg, an economist who is executive director of Keystone Research Center in Harrisburg, Pa.

Before moving to Pennsylvania, Mary Ann Ponte, 48, was making a decent salary as an administrative assistant in New Jersey. Now she works in a grocery store as a cashier. She attended the job fair hoping to find a job that pays about $30,000. But even if that happens, she said, it will take time before she can pay off debt and loans from relatives who tried to help her get by.

"You have to do a lot of backpedaling before you can get back on your feet," she said. "I am here with a BSW [bachelor's of social work], and I am working at a grocery store next to a teenager who is making the same amount of money," she said.

Geosits hoped the job fair would finally allow her to feel a part of the secure economic times Bush keeps talking about. She spent an hour waiting in line at the Olympus booth before being told the company will not be opening its doors locally until 2006.

"I always think positive. I will find something," she said, flashing a 100-watt smile. "I am not down and out yet."

Tatsha Robertson can be reached at t_robertson@globe.com.