Poll on enthusiasm suggests Bush leads
WASHINGTON -- Forget the gender gap. The chasm that yawns the widest this election year is the enthusiasm gap.
Nearly two in three likely voters who support President Bush, 65 percent, said they were ''very enthusiastic" about their candidate, while 42 percent of the supporters for Senator John F. Kerry expressed similarly high levels of enthusiasm for their choice, according to the latest
That's a 23-point difference in relative excitement. Although the polling record is incomplete for earlier elections, the available data suggested that the enthusiasm gap in the 2000 presidential campaign was negligible, at best.
In an election in which turnout is key, keeping the faithful energized is one of the most critical challenges facing Kerry as he approached the first 2004 presidential debate last night. Not only must he convince the small number of persuadable voters who now support Bush to switch their votes, but he also must reenergize his own supporters to make sure they turn out on Election Day.
While the enthusiasm gap is apparent across most key voting blocs, nowhere is it more striking than in the way that political conservatives, moderates, and liberals view their respective choices.
Bush's conservative base is broadly enthusiastic about the president, while political liberals are noticeably cooler to Kerry. Among registered voters, nearly seven in 10 self-described conservative supporters of Bush said they're enthusiastic about the president. But four in 10 liberals, 43 percent, expressed similar levels of excitement about Kerry.
This enthusiasm gap extends to political moderates as well. Nearly half of Bush's moderate supporters are energized about their candidate, compared to a third of Kerry's moderate base.
Bush also has been able to fire up his partisan base more than Kerry has. Today, two-thirds of all Republican voters who support Bush said they're enthusiastic about him, a double-digit increase since June. But 48 percent of Kerry's Democratic supporters expressed similar enthusiasm about their choice, up 13 points since June but down from his postconvention peak of 54 percent.
The enthusiasm gap extends to black voters, typically one of the most reliable Democratic voting groups. In two Post-ABC News surveys in September, fewer than half of blacks who back Kerry said they were very enthusiastic about him. White voters, who disproportionately favor Bush, do so with far more enthusiasm: Six in 10 white Bush voters are highly enthusiastic about their candidate.
There's a bit of a gender gap in enthusiasm. According to the latest Post-ABC News poll, there's virtually no difference in levels of excitement among men and women who support Bush; if anything, women are a bit more enthusiastic about him. Among Kerry voters, women are 14 points more likely than men to say they're very enthusiastic about their candidate.
The most recent Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 23 to 26 among 1,204 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 969 self-identified registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
