Courting of Jewish vote reaches a critical phase

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. -- These days, it is rare to hear advisers to John F. Kerry praise President Bush over any foreign policy issue, especially in a hotly contested battleground just days before the election. But the subject of Israel brought out the bipartisan side of Kerry adviser Richard Holbrooke here on Sunday -- to the delight of his mostly Jewish audience.

''I'm not here to criticize President Bush," Holbrooke, a former United Nations ambassador, told hundreds of members of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, a major pro-Israel lobbying group, gathered for their annual summit. ''His support for Israel is, in my mind, unquestionable."

The crowd -- to Holbrooke's chagrin -- offered rousing applause. ''That was not," he said wryly, ''supposed to be an applause line."

The remark, and Holbrooke's response, offered a window into an intriguing question in this year's election: Will Jewish voters continue to turn out in droves for Democrats as they have traditionally, or shift toward Bush as his advisers insist they expect?

Although AIPAC is generally more pro-Bush and conservative than the larger Jewish-American electorate, Republicans contend that after three years of strong support for Israel and tough talk on terrorism, the ''Jewish vote," to the extent that it is monolithic, is no longer reliably Democratic.

And Republicans have been dispatching a steady stream of Jewish surrogates -- from former New York mayor Ed Koch to Office of Management and Budget Director Josh Bolten -- to South Florida in the final days of the campaign, hoping to chip away several percentage points that could help make the difference in key counties.

When Vice President Dick Cheney appeared in West Palm Beach yesterday, it was in part to extend the administration's message on terrorism to Jewish voters there, Republicans said.

''We need a strategy that goes after the terrorists and is not pandering or trying to appease foreign countries that are anti-Israel or anti-Semitic," Representative Adam Hasner, Republican of Florida, said, expanding on the central theme of the Bush campaign in the final weeks. ''I think that's the scariest thing to most Jews, the comments John Kerry has made regarding a 'global test.' "

Democrats insist they are not worried the Bush campaign message dovetails perfectly with Jewish sentiment -- and point to public polls that indicate Kerry with nearly as much support among Jews in Florida as Al Gore drew four years ago, even when he had an Orthodox Jew, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, on the ticket.

Democrats also dismiss the notion that Jewish voters are single-mindedly focused on Israel, and in fact argue that on every issue other than Israel they share nothing with Bush. From abortion to tax cuts, Democrats say, Jewish voters are far more in synch with Kerry.

And indeed, there is no evidence of a seismic shift among Jewish voters, according to the most recent surveys.

A poll by the American Jewish Committee conducted at the end of August indicated 69 percent of respondents favoring Kerry, 24 percent supporting Bush, and 3 percent supporting Independent candidate Ralph Nader. Another 5 percent said they were undecided. Bush won 19 percent of the Jewish vote nationwide in 2000.

But after some slight shifts in opinion earlier this year, following some initial stumbles on Israel-related issues by Kerry, Democrats appear to be concerned about not taking the Jewish electorate for granted.

On his third public stop since heart surgery, Bill Clinton appeared yesterday at a synagogue in Boca Raton -- a sign, Republicans say, that Democrats are more worried about the traditional Jewish base than they admit.

Lieberman has campaigned here extensively in recent weeks. Kerry-Edwards stickers at polling places are printed in Hebrew, and Kerry's brother, Cameron, a convert to Judaism, has worked diligently to persuade voters in Florida that Kerry is as pro-Israel as Bush.

Alan D. Solomont, a longtime Kerry supporter heading up the effort nationwide to shore up Jewish support, said Bush may have gained some ground earlier this year.

''I think they did make some inroads, maybe, early on in the general election campaign, but I don't think those have stood up," Solomont said yesterday.

''People have seen George Bush for the last four years, and he has projected himself as a strong friend of Israel, and he is arguably that." But, he said, ''People have come to understand that John Kerry is every bit as strong a friend to Israel as George Bush is. He has a perfect AIPAC record in the Senate."