The final pitch

Bracing for inconclusive results or legal challenges, the Republican and Democratic campaigns were ready to claim early victories wherever possible, convinced that quickly establishing themselves as the winner will create an aura of inevitability and help stave off lawsuits and complaints of voter fraud or intimidation.

At the same time, neither side was likely to concede defeat unless the results were overwhelmingly unfavorable -- taking a lesson from four years ago when Al Gore held off his concession at the last minute, prompting the Florida recount.

Advisers to both candidates, frustrated by discordant polls, turned to initial surveys of early voting, both sides arguing that they had an advantage among the millions of Florida voters who cast their ballots over the past two weeks. Senior Kerry adviser Mike McCurry said the Massachusetts Democrat is up by 6 percentage points in the early Florida vote, starting a rolling wave of claims certain to continue until well into tonight.

"I'm confident we're going to win," the president said during at stop at Pittsburgh International Airport, in a rare conversation with reporters. Describing himself as "energized," Bush made a five-state dash through those that were still too close to call, before winding up back at his ranch in Texas.

"The finish line is in sight, and I just want to assure you I've got the energy and the optimism and the enthusiasm to cross the line," Bush said.

Bush had few fresh words on the stump yesterday, but he continued his assault on Kerry's voting record and policy positions, staying on the attack through his last full day on the trail.

"If you are a voter who believes that the president of the United States should say what he means and do what he says and keep his word, I ask you to come stand with me," he said in Burgettstown, Pa.

Kerry, who has taken to saying "the hopes of the nation" are in the balance today, broadened the stakes during a rainy rally in Milwaukee, tying together Iraq, terrorism, and a raft of domestic concerns in posing the choice between himself and Bush. He told Wisconsin voters they were "24 hours from the great moment that the world and America are waiting for."

"The choice of a lifetime is on that ballot. This is the most important election of our lives, and we need you," Kerry said -- squaring off almost directly with Bush, who was in the city just minutes earlier.

"The hopes of a whole nation, the hopes of families that I've been privileged to meet all across our country, are on the line -- and the hopes, the hopes of the whole world are on the line tomorrow," Kerry said.

Initially a roller coaster, the race headed into Election Day unmarked by last-minute surprises. There were no terror alerts, despite predictions of a copycat attack following an election-year bombing in Madrid in March. The military did not capture or kill Osama bin Laden. Even a videotaped appearance by the Saudi fugitive, released last week, appeared to do little to change public opinion, which stayed evenly split down to the wire.

A Washington Post/ABC tracking poll suggested Bush had a one-point edge last night, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 1 point going to third-party candidate Ralph Nader. A CBS/New York Times poll offered no better guidance, with Bush at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.

That left Democrats and Republicans alike angling for momentum until the bitter end.

Seeking a show of strength, Democratic Party officials said early voting in 19 key states suggested advantages for the Kerry-Edwards ticket. Of the more than five million people who have voted early or by mail in those states, about 3.1 million have been tracked back to party databases; Democrats were identified as "outperforming" Republican registrants by 6.25 percent, according to a party memo.

Democratic officials also described a massive field team of more than 1 million volunteers, including a 250,000-person corps of ward leaders, phone bank captains, and other experienced hands at turning out the vote. In 2000, by contrast, there were about 90,000 volunteers playing those key roles.

"Just [Sunday] alone, our volunteers in Ohio made over 500,000 phone calls and door knocks," said Karen Hicks, the party's national field director this fall.

"Across the country, we made well over 3 million phone calls and had thousands of people active in the rain, in the cold, in the heat in some places," she added, saying a total of 23.5 million phone calls had been made during the course of the campaign.

But senior Bush adviser Karl Rove said in recent days that the early-voting trends he had spotted suggested advantages for Bush; Democrats, he said, may discover on Election Day that their most loyal supporters have already voted.

"What we're finding out in Florida in both the early voting and the absentee ballots, we're doing a much better job of getting first-time or infrequent voters to the polls," Rove said. "What the Democrats are doing is getting people to vote early who turn out to be always voting. I'm very confident of our organization there. This trend is simply going to continue."

Kerry senior strategist Robert Shrum -- describing his own campaign as "in very strong shape in the battleground states," particularly Florida and Ohio -- mocked Rove for his confidence. "I think they believe that saying you're going to win helps you win," Shrum said. Asked why his prediction of victory was no different, he said: "I do believe we're going to win. I don't have a long track record of having told people -- I never told anyone in 2000 that Al Gore was going to win by six points," alluding to a Rove prediction to Bush in the last contest, which ended in a 36-day deadlock.

As their advisers sparred, Kerry and Bush dashed from state to state in the heaviest day of campaigning. Bush made seven campaign stops, in five different swing states, before wrapping up his campaign at a late-night rally in Dallas. He intends to vote early this morning at the small firehouse in Crawford, Texas, near his ranch, and then make at least a stop in Ohio before returning to Washington.

Kerry who spent last night in La Crosse, Wis., returns to Boston this morning. He will vote at the State House, have lunch at Union Oyster House, and watch the returns at his home on Beacon Hill before going to his election headquarters suite at the Westin Copley Place hotel.