Hispanic voters are still staying away in droves

WASHINGTON -- When Hispanic voters propelled Antonio Villaraigosa into the Los Angeles mayor's office in May, his victory was celebrated as an indication that ''Latino power" was coming into its own. But a new study of Census Department data and voting surveys suggests that the reality might be different.

Although the Hispanic population growth is surging across the United States, those increases are not resulting in an increase in Latin voters turning out at the polls. In fact, eligible Hispanic voters still turn out in significantly smaller numbers than do other ethnic groups.

Hispanics accounted for half the total population growth in the United States from 2000 to 2004, but made up only 10 percent of new voters in November 2004, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonprofit group based in Washington.

Where they compose a high proportion of the population, as in Los Angeles, Hispanic voters can carry a favored candidate like Villaraigosa to victory. But nationwide, the gap between the Hispanic population and its political clout remains wide, the study found.

''This report doesn't say Hispanic voting power isn't growing," said Roberto Suro, director of the Pew Hispanic Center. ''It's just not growing at nearly the magnitude of the population."

The study analyzed data from the recently released Census Bureau survey of November 2004, along with exit polls from the presidential election that same month.

Pew's researchers also used the new data to provide an answer to a lingering debate over Hispanic support for President George Bush in the 2004 election.

It was widely reported that national exit poll data showed Hispanic support for the president as high as 44 percent, but some surveys put the figure lower. The Pew study found that about 40 percent of Hispanic voters supported Bush, but that the Hispanic support for Bush had grown, especially among Protestants.

''It doesn't necessarily show any long-term alignment," said Pew's Richard Fry, ''but [Bush's] support did increase."

Between Bush's first presidential victory in 2000 and his re-election in 2004, the Hispanic population grew by 5.7 million, to 41.3 million nationwide. Of the 5.7 million, 2.1 million were eligible to vote; of these, 1.4 million voted in November.

Pew researchers broke down the 5.7 million figure to show that 30 percent were too young to vote. Another 33 percent were not citizens. But among those who were citizens and who were eligible to vote, fewer Hispanics went to the polls on Election Day 2004 than did either whites or blacks.

In 2004, 39 percent were eligible to vote in 2004, compared with 76 percent of whites and 65 percent of blacks. Only 47 percent of eligible Hispanics voted, compared with 67 percent of eligible whites and 60 percent of blacks.

The relative youth of the Hispanic population and the large number who are not citizens will prolong the gap between the overall number of Hispanics living in the United States and their political impact, the study reported.

Hispanic groups objected to the Pew findings as downgrading Latinos' political importance. Michael Bustamante, spokesman for the William C. Velasquez Institute in Sacramento, Calif., said: ''Our barriers are naturalization and registration. Our numbers continue to increase significantly."