Succeeding Bush: A GOP short list

WASHINGTON -- Any politician who hopes to succeed a two-term president of his own party knows an uncomfortable truth: Voters may like and respect the incumbent, but they will be looking for a change.

Usually, would-be successors try to preach faith in the incumbent's policies, but offer a change of style, a clearing of the air after eight long years. In 1988, George H. W. Bush presented himself as a true believer in Ronald Reagan's small-government politics (''no new taxes") but also as a more alert and more hands-on leader, not the kind of president who would be prone to embarrassments such as the Iran-contra scandal.

In 2000, Al Gore presented himself as Bill Clinton's trusted partner in the decisions that led to the 1990s economic boom, but also as an unabashed family man, able to give his wife a smooch without people rolling their eyes.

Now, as Republicans begin testing the waters to succeed George W. Bush, the surprise is not that they are presenting a stylistic contrast. It is that almost all the would-be contenders are standing to the left of Bush politically. Much of the prospective Republican field seems to think voters will be looking for more than a new personality; they will be looking for a new platform.

Only two people mentioned as possible Republican presidential contenders seem eager to adopt the Bush image of a president who is boldly aggressive overseas, committed to a steady run of tax cuts, and willing to pursue the social agenda of the religious right.

Those would-be Bush inheritors are the president's younger brother, Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, who is downplaying the possibility of a run, and Senator George Allen of Virginia, who is actively drumming up enthusiasm for an '08 run.

Allen is banking on the idea that voters will want more of the same. He does not offer even a stylistic contrast with the president. He is blunt and direct, he pays homage to the wisdom of the common man, and he pursues a staunch conservative agenda.

But at least seven other would-be candidates have broken with the president on a variety of important issues.

They are: Arizona Senator John McCain, Bush's sparring partner on everything from judicial nominations to some military matters; Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, a Vietnam veteran who has been relentlessly critical of Bush's handling of the Iraq war; former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who has criticized Bush's handling of homeland security; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who once promised to uphold state abortion laws; Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who dramatically broke with the president over stem-cell research; New York Governor George S. Pataki, who supports abortion rights; and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, an unabashed social liberal who endorses gay marriage.

Together, they run the gamut from the more socially liberal Northeastern wing to its more isolationist Western wing to the Southern populism of Georgia's Gingrich.

The seven differ from one another in many important ways, but they all seem to be preparing for two major course corrections. The first is a shift in approach on Iraq, to emphasize pragmatism over ideology.

No one knows whether US troops will still be in Iraq in 2008, but many of the would-be Republican contenders seem to be preparing to inherit a problem that they believe will have to be managed more competently than under Bush.

Not much fight-them-over-there bravado is emanating from these would-be contenders; they are muted by concern for the situation on the ground.

The second course correction seems to be an inching away from the religious right. All seven, except perhaps Giuliani, would cater to the religious right in some respects, but none are likely to march alongside the social conservatives as closely as Bush has. (Gingrich may be willing, but after his two messy divorces and his affair with a subordinate, the religious right will not be eager to march with him.)

At least some of these would-be contenders probably will not end up running: Family concerns, poor fund-raising, or just plain lack of interest from voters are likely to scare them off.

The field could also be fattened by some activists eager to raise their profiles through the debates, like family-values activist Gary Bauer and talk-show host Alan Keyes did in 2000.

But as of now, the Republican field looks to be quite large and full of candidates who are anything but Bush clones, plus one who is.

Right now, with Bush's approval ratings in the low 40s, possible candidates are eager to distance themselves. But the three years between now and the election is a long time: By 2008, President-elect Allen could be laughing all the way to the White House.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.