As late pardons beckon, testimony may be scarce

WASHINGTON -- On Christmas Eve 1992, outgoing President George H. W. Bush declared that former Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger was ''a true American patriot," and granted him a pardon for five counts of obstruction of justice, perjury, and making false statements to investigators probing the Iran-contra scandal of the Reagan administration. Bush also pardoned five other former officials who were involved in the scandal.

At the time, President-elect Bill Clinton expressed concern that Bush's pardons would leave the impression that people in government were above the law.

But eight years later, on his last day in office, Clinton pardoned a whopping 140 people. Among them were his friend Susan McDougal, who had gone to prison rather than testify about Clinton's investment in a land deal, and two senior officials of his administration, the former CIA director, John Deutsch, and the former housing secretary, Henry Cisneros.

Now, the tradition of handing out 11th-hour pardons to friends, aides, and colleagues may well be on the mind of the latest White House aide to get hit with indictments, I. Lewis ''Scooter" Libby, who resigned Friday as chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney.

Libby has been indicted on five counts of obstruction of justice, making false statements, and perjury, in connection with the investigation into who leaked the identity of a CIA agent. His next step would usually be to discuss the possibility of a plea bargain with prosecutors.

There is little doubt that the special counsel, Patrick J. Fitzgerald, would be quite happy to offer an agreement to keep Libby out of prison in exchange for his testimony against others in the administration who may have plotted to reveal the identity of a CIA operative, Valerie Plame Wilson. Wilson's husband, Joseph C. Wilson 4th, had angered the administration by discrediting one part of President Bush's case for war in Iraq. And the indictment against Libby indicated that he had discussed Wilson's CIA position with at least four other top officials, including the vice president.

Since Libby, the 55-year-old father of two young sons, would face up to 30 years in prison and fines of $1.25 million if convicted on all counts, Fitzgerald would appear to have powerful leverage to secure Libby's cooperation. But that leverage disappears if all that Libby has to fear is holding on until Christmas 2008. Then, the president, who said on Friday that Libby had ''sacrificed much in the service to this country," will be preparing to leave office and thinking about pardons.

The current President Bush, who has also called the charges against Libby ''serious," has not said anything about a pardon, and no one has suggested that Bush would ever promise such a thing.

But with his father and Clinton having established the tradition of pardoning their former colleagues, Bush does not have to say anything for the possibility of a pardon to loom large in the minds of Libby and his lawyer.

Presidents naturally feel troubled at the thought of former colleagues suffering criminal indictments. And despite their ritual promises of cooperation with investigations, most presidents feel the whole idea of a special-prosecutor investigation is a witchhunt designed to criminalize politics.

Presidential aides routinely get caught obstructing justice in such investigations. Some White House defenders usually say that perjury or obstruction of justice are minor charges because they do not necessarily relate to an underlying crime. But administration critics often point out that the aides are lying and obstructing investigations, to shield their bosses from political embarrassment or even, in extreme cases, impeachment.

Weinberger, for instance, was accused of hiding from prosecutors 1,700 diary notations that recorded when top figures in the Reagan administration -- including President Reagan and then-Vice President George H. W. Bush -- attended meetings at which officials discussed sending arms to Iran in exchange for the release of American hostages.

McDougal said in a later memoir that she went to prison rather than testify before a grand jury investigating the Whitewater land deal, because she detested the independent counsel, Kenneth W. Starr, not because she knew anything that would damage Clinton. Many people still do not believe her.

On Friday, Cheney did not hide his admiration for Libby, his closest aide and a friend who sometimes drove to work with him. ''Scooter Libby is one of the most capable and talented individuals I have ever known," Cheney said.

Whether Libby has anything to reveal about his bosses is unknown. But if he does, the work of the first President Bush and Clinton in pardoning their former colleagues makes it far less likely that Libby would ever feel the need to testify.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.