GOP leader fears backlash if Roe v. Wade is overturned

WASHINGTON -- The Republican lawmaker who helped guide the GOP to an expanded majority in the House three years ago warned yesterday that a Supreme Court ruling overturning a woman's legal right to an abortion -- a possibility if the high court shifts further to the right -- could hurt his party's political prospects and cause a ''sea change" in suburban voting habits.

Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee through the 2002 election, said that if the Supreme Court threw out Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that established that abortion rights were protected by the Constitution, ''you're going to have a lot of very nervous suburban candidates."

At a breakfast gathering of reporters, Davis said Republicans have a political cushion with voters as long as Roe is intact. Currently, ''you can be prolife and no one feels that's a threat to someone having to make a difficult decision" if abortion is illegal, he said.

Davis's comments came days after the disclosure of a 1985 document in which Supreme Court nominee Samuel A. Alito Jr. said he believed the US Constitution ''does not protect the right to an abortion."

In meetings with senators, Alito, -- a veteran federal appellate judge whom President Bush nominated to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor -- has played down the statement, part of a written application for a promotion when he worked in the Reagan administration. But liberal interest groups have seized on his words to build opposition to his confirmation.

If Alito is confirmed, it's not clear whether he or Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., Bush's other Supreme Court selection, would vote to overturn Roe, although both are conservatives. Their supporters say both jurists may be critical of the 1973 ruling but would carefully weigh the impact of overturning a three-decades-old precedent.

Moreover, if Alito is confirmed it would still leave the high court one vote shy of the clear conservative majority needed to overturn Roe. But Bush, who has three years left in office, may have an opportunity to fill another Supreme Court vacancy.

Davis's comments underscore the complexities the GOP faces on the issue, at a time when some party strategists worry that the president's low approval ratings are a drag on Republicans' prospects in the 2006 congressional midterm elections.

Democratic pollsters have argued that the Republican Party's firm antiabortion stance risks alienating suburban voters, especially women. But abortion historically has animated conservative voters who overwhelmingly favor restricting or outlawing it and typically vote Republican, said Karlyn H. Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute.

Republican strategists are now pondering whether a Supreme Court ruling that voided Roe would anger moderate suburban voters and galvanize abortion rights activists, giving Democrats an edge.

The abortion rights cases most likely to land on the Supreme Court's current docket mostly deal with restrictions, but legal observers say the court might still address a question at the heart of Roe: Is there a constitutional right to abortion?

That's what worries Davis. ''It's nice to make a stand" against abortion, he said, when ''it's not a real bullet, it's more theoretical."

Republican pollster Linda DiVall said ''it would be very unlikely, in fact, historic" for any Supreme Court ruling to suddenly give Democrats a boost in swing districts, but controversial social issues such as abortion can hurt Republicans in politically moderate areas where the GOP is already on the defensive.

''When you talk about abortion, immigration, and stem cell research, the trinity of those issues can have an impact on the suburban vote, because the absolutists don't see shades of gray," she said.

In Davis's home state, Democrat Timothy M. Kaine defeated Republican Jerry W. Kilgore in the race for governor of Virginia last week, capturing the state's northern suburbs closest to Washington. But GOP strategists were alarmed that Kaine also picked up support in sparser, more conservative ''exurbs" that had been voting Republican.

Independent political analyst Rhodes Cook said the GOP's dominance in the Midwest and especially the South presents a trade-off on efforts to win more moderate suburbs.

''There, independents and moderate Republicans are finding it increasingly hard to support GOP candidates, and I think that overturning Roe v. Wade would just underscore that problem," Cook said.