The contenders of '08 look to Ohio

CLEVELAND -- With Ohio emerging as a pivotal battleground for the 2008 election, presidential hopefuls are visiting the Buckeye State and campaigning for local candidates, seeking to make early inroads and build relationships in the state both parties believe will determine the next occupant of the Oval Office.

The primary season is more than a year and a half away, but Ohio already has been visited by nearly a dozen potential presidential candidates, with many more appearances on the calendar this summer.

Senator John F. Kerry , Democrat of Massachusetts, visited Ohio this month, attending a town hall meeting and a commencement speech at Kenyon College, where students waited in line up to 11 hours to vote in the 2004 presidential election. Kerry's address was laden with references to his narrow loss in Ohio, which cost him the presidency.

Candidates in the past focused only on early primary states such as New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina at this point in the process. But presidential hopefuls are now looking well ahead to the general election and the key role they expect Ohio to play, party officials said.

The candidates believe that winning support in Ohio -- a state whose mix of blue-collar urbanites and rural voters with strong Christian values makes it a test of a candidate's national viability -- will boost their image and help them in early primaries.

``We're the prettiest girl at the prom. I suddenly know how it feels to be the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party," said Chris Redfern , chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. ``The race for president begins today in Ohio," he added as he headed into a recent closed-door session with Democratic officials in Cleveland.

Officially, the candidates are traipsing through Ohio to help their party's nominees for governor and Congress. But the potential presidential contenders of 2008 also know that they must introduce themselves now to voters in Ohio.

Early primaries are crucial because they weed out weaker candidates, but ``Ohio is a battleground," said Kerry. ``You can't sit around and wait. Ohioans made a huge difference last time, they could have made the whole difference. That isn't lost on anyone."

Already, Ohio has hosted a series of potential Democratic candidates, including Kerry, former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, retired General Wesley K. Clark , Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, and Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa. Former Virginia governor Mark Warner is scheduled to visit in July.

Among Republicans, Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee and John McCain of Arizona have been to Ohio this year, and former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani publicly endorsed the GOP's nominee for governor, Kenneth Blackwell , a conservative who frequently quotes Scripture in his speeches.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton , meanwhile, hosted a New York fund-raiser for fellow Democrat Ted Strickland , an Ohio congressman running for governor, and Redfern said he expects Clinton to visit Ohio, even though she's campaigning for reelection in New York.

Both parties said the outcome of this fall's races in Ohio will be a strong indicator of how the state will vote for president in 2008. Ohio is generally considered a conservative state, promilitary and against gun control. But corruption scandals involving Republican state officials, combined with the unpopularity of the Iraq war and unease over the economy, are giving Democrats hope that they can pick up the governorship, three House seats, a Senate seat, and the 20 electoral votes Ohio delivers in 2008.

``To win the presidency in 2008, we have to win the elections in '06," Redfern said.

Republicans acknowledge that their image has been tarnished by the unpopular governor, Bob Taft , and other state GOP officials in bribery and other scandals. To win, Republican candidates must convince voters that they are agents of change within their party, said Mark Weaver , a GOP consultant in Ohio.

``No one is overconfident. We know this is a tough environment, but we've got better candidates who have really good ideas for change," Weaver said.

Republicans have cast the Democratic nominees as too liberal for Ohio, while trying to separate themselves from the GOP lawmakers under indictment or investigation on corruption charges.

``There are some people that clearly don't have the same values as the rest of us and are clearly causing havoc in the [election] cycle," said Curt Braden , Republican Party chairman in Stark County, a conservative area that includes Akron and Canton. ``But voters see through that."

Aside from the governor's race, the parties are closely watching the Senate battle between US Representative Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, and incumbent Senator Mike DeWine , a moderate-to-conservative Republican. DeWine is well liked by his colleagues in both parties and has not been a subject of the state or national corruption scandals, but Democrats hope Brown will benefit from the GOP's poor approval ratings nationally and in Ohio.

Three congressional seats, including one held by Representative Bob Ney , a Republican under investigation for his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, are also in play. Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House for the first time since 1994, and must turn six seats in the Senate to gain the majority there.

But officials in both parties say it is difficult to predict how Ohio will react to the myriad issues occupying voters' minds. Ohioans around the state say they are disgusted with the corruption scandals, but Ney's district easily re-nominated him to run for reelection, despite the ethical cloud.

Other voters complain about high taxes, praising Republican efforts to trim their tax bills, but then denounce the uncertain economy and the outsourcing of jobs they say Republicans have caused.

Zora Cimperman , an 86-year-old Democrat in Parma, south of Cleveland, said she wants to ``clean out" the GOP-run state government, but still likes Blackwell's stand against abortion. She voted for Bush, but also admires Representative Dennis J. Kucinich , an Ohio Democrat who is one of the most liberal and antiwar members of the House.

Lucas Green , a 24-year-old Republican vendor from Cleveland, said he liked Blackwell's platform against gay marriage, but is worried about the economy and may vote Democratic. ``Right now, the cost of living is high and the jobs are low-paying," Green said, and ``most people need to get two or three jobs" to make ends meet.

Ohio's unusual voter registration rules make the picture even murkier.

On primary day, anyone can request a Democratic or Republican ballot, regardless of their party registration, so officials are never sure how strong their support is. Most believe Ohio is equally divided among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

``Ohio is a microcosm of the whole country -- it's so diverse," said Strickland. ``That's why it's hard to get a handle on it."

Between now and November, officials expect prominent lawmakers in both parties to focus on Ohio, helping to raise money and turn out voters.

Both Republicans and Democrats say the GOP's win in the 2004 presidential election was largely due to a well-organized Republican effort to get out the vote -- one that was particularly effective in Ohio, where the GOP controls most of the levers of government. But Democrats are determined to match that campaign this year.

``The stakes are high. They know it. We know it. It is going to be a very hard-fought battle between now and November," said John McClelland, spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party.

Presidential candidates, meanwhile, can test their futures while aiding the fortunes of their colleagues, said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

``It's a very good place to get your message out to smaller states. It kind of gives you a sense of your national viability," Smith said.

``And what better way to prove yourself than to be helpful to your party?"