Romney directs GOP cash to campaign states

WASHINGTON -- As chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Mitt Romney has directed the organization's largest contributions to candidates in three states that are key to any presidential run, enhancing his exposure in politically important precincts as he prepares for a 2008 run for president.

The heavy investment in those three states -- Florida, Michigan, and Iowa -- underscores the extent to which Romney is using the governors ' association to build his presidential résumé. Romney is traveling the nation under the auspices of the association and getting to know the deep-pocketed donors who play crucial roles in presidential candidacies.

Romney, as chairman, plays the primary role in recommending which races receive funding, though all decisions are approved by an executive committee of the governors' association.

Florida, Michigan, and Iowa each have competitive governors' races, and Romney said in an interview that each funding decision was based on the merits.

Still, in a year in which even Romney concedes that Republicans are highly likely to suffer significant losses in governor's races nationally, some of the choices of where to send the association's money have raised eyebrows in political circles.

Two weeks ago, Romney traveled to Florida to deliver a $1 million check to Republican gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist, even though polls have shown Crist holding a steady lead.

Even without the governors' association's contribution, Crist had nearly tripled the fund-raising kitty of his opponent, Democrat Jim Davis, suggesting the association's money might be better spent in other contests.

Also getting $1 million is Dick DeVos, who is running for governor in Michigan, a closely divided state that holds early presidential primaries -- and where Romney's father served as governor.

Though DeVos's race against Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is tight, DeVos is hardly strapped for cash, since he has already pumped more than $16 million of his Amway fortune into the race.

``We laughed at the Michigan money," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks governors' races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. ``It's like Romney's third home state, after Utah and Massachusetts."

Romney is directing about $750,000 to Iowa, where Representative Jim Nussle, the chairman of the House budget committee, is locked in a campaign that's widely considered a toss-up.

While the tightness of the election makes the state a good target for governors' association money, the donation is noteworthy for its size, given that Iowa is a sparsely populated state with low advertising costs.

Romney has paid frequent visits to Iowa, which has the first presidential nominating contest in the nation, including a series of stops last week.

``If Nussle wins, it gives [Romney] a friend in the governor's seat here, which can be useful as you look forward to the caucuses," said Peverill Squire , a political science professor at the University of Iowa. ``Even more important than that, it gives him a presence here, and elevates his profile among party activists. That's how you put together a campaign organization."

Romney said each contribution represents a strategic decision based on the 2006 races, not his own ambitions. Some states, including Michigan and Florida, were given more money in part to reward major donors in those states, Romney said. Iowa, he added, represents perhaps the GOP's best chance for replacing a Democratic governor with a Republican.

``States that have provided a lot of money to the RGA have generally gotten more money back," Romney said. ``I'm sure when this is over, people will say, `Why did you send it there?' But we're sending money where we think it can best be spent."

Though the association declined to release its full spending figures, Romney himself has identified Florida, Michigan, and Iowa as the top three recipients so far. As a 527 organization, the RGA is required to file quarterly reports with the IRS, and third-quarter fund-raising and spending won't be released until mid-October.

RGA officials said the association also has spent heavily in states that don't figure as prominently in presidential campaigns. Romney said the group is making sizable investments in Wisconsin, Oregon, Colorado, and Maryland, among others.

By the end of the election cycle, Romney said, between 10 and 12 states will have received cash infusions of roughly similar amounts, though he declined to name the states or the amounts so as not to reveal strategy. He said he hopes those states include Massachusetts, where his lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, is running to succeed him, but he has recused himself from decisions involving his home state.

At the same time, the governors' association has essentially written off governors' seats in New York and Ohio, and given little attention to Illinois. The association has passed up the chance to make big donations to Republican efforts to unseat Democratic incumbents in states that are historically friendly to the GOP. These include Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Tennessee, and Arizona.

The organization has given virtually nothing to Republican candidates in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two of the most important states in the presidential calendar, but where incumbents have big leads. Republican Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina appears safe, as does Democratic Governor John Lynch of New Hampshire.

Despite Romney's efforts, polls and analysts say Republicans are likely to have a net loss of between four and eight governorships this year. If they lose four or more, they'll lose their majority status among governorships for the first time since 1994.

``The math would suggest we lose quite a few governorships," Romney said. ``We hope to do better than that, obviously."

By contrast, Romney's counterpart at the Democratic Governors Association, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, is predicting a banner year for Democrats in the 36 governor's races that will be decided Nov. 7. Richardson, like Romney, hopes to use the platform of the governors' association to boost his 2008 presidential prospects

Citing the most recent public polls, Richardson said Democrats are in a position to turn a 22-28 deficit in governorships into at least a 28-22 advantage. Richardson said Democratic pickups are likely in Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, Ohio, Arkansas, and Colorado. He said Democrats also stand good chances to take over from Republicans in Nevada, Alaska, Minnesota, and others.

``Two-thirds of the country is at stake, and we will get to a majority of governorships," Richardson said.

The factors driving the major trends in the governors' races are beyond Romney's control. Low approval ratings for President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress are harming Republicans up and down the ballot. Romney has also been hampered by a rash of retirements among Republican governors -- including his own.

It all suggests an inauspicious debut on the national stage for Romney, who has become an increasingly public face on behalf of GOP gubernatorial candidates this year. But analysts say the losses are unlikely to significantly harm his presidential chances.

The most important task of a governor s' association chairman is raising money, and Romney has maintained Republicans' historic cash advantage in governors' races, with the RGA raising $25.9 million -- a record for a nonpresidential year -- compared with the DGA's $17.9 million.

Because of his success bringing in money, Romney is unlikely to face recriminations for his leadership, even if the election turns out to be a bloodbath for Republicans, said Jeffrey Berry , a political science professor at Tufts University.

``Elephants have short memories, I suppose," he said.

Since taking over last November, Romney has retooled the RGA to eliminate its policy functions, allowing him to focus exclusively on fund-raising.

Even if Republicans falter on Election Day, Romney will end up glad he took on the RGA job, predicted Mickey Edwards, a former Republican representative who now teaches at Princeton University.

The travel has given Romney national exposure, and kept him in close contact with the moneymen and GOP powerbrokers who are crucial to the presidential nominating process, he said.

``It's been a big plus for him," Edwards said.