Democrats strengthen their chances to retake Senate

Democratic challengers are in strong positions against GOP incumbents in four states -- Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, and Rhode Island -- a trend that leaves the party looking for just two more seats to reclaim the majority. The main targets are states in which Republicans in recent years have dominated but this year face hotly competitive races.

Except for a brief period in 2001 and 2002, Republicans have held power in the Senate continuously since the 1994 elections and now hold 55 of 100 seats.

Only last year, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada said it would take "a miracle" for his party to win control. But the same issues that are leading many pollsters and strategists to predict a Democratic takeover of the House, including the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war, have made a turnover in the Senate more plausible.

Democrats are gleeful about the prospect of reversing years- long political trends against them in such places as Montana and Ohio, as well as Southern states such as Tennessee and Virginia. But recent history underscores how difficult it is for Democrats to compete in places where Republicans usually win at the presidential and congressional levels.

Two years ago, as Bush was winning reelection, Democrats lost Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and South Dakota. But analysts say this year's political environment is much more toxic for the GOP.

"The Democrats are going to gain somewhere between four and seven seats," said Stuart Rothenberg, author of an independent newsletter that tracks campaigns nationwide. Of the battlegrounds of Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri, he said, "They need two of the three, and they have a pretty good chance."

In four other states, Republican incumbents -- Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania -- are running behind in the latest public polls.

Assuming that Democrats hold New Jersey, where Senator Robert Menendez hopes a traditional Democratic tilt will carry him past Republican Tom Kean Jr., they would need to grab two more GOP-held seats to gain a 51-to-49 edge. (An evenly split Senate would stay under GOP control because Vice President Dick Cheney would break the tie.)

In Virginia, Republican Senator George Allen was cruising toward reelection until he referred to a Democratic worker of Indian descent as "macaca" at a campaign event, clumsily handled disclosures about his Jewish heritage, and seemingly lost his once-easy touch with Virginia voters. Democratic nominee Jim Webb has surged within striking distance of Allen in polls.

In the race for an open seat in Tennessee, Republicans believe Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, has turned his campaign around after replacing his campaign manager and is now more focused and aggressive. Democrats concede that Corker has cut into the lead of Representative Harold Ford but are counting on Ford's campaign skills to carry him through the final weeks.

Eight-term Representative Jim Cooper, Democrat of Tennessee, who lost a 1994 Senate bid and whose father was a Tennessee governor, said he has never seen anything to match the enthusiasm surrounding Ford, an African-American from Memphis.

Strategists see Missouri as perhaps the purest test of whether Republicans can overcome a strong Democratic headwind this year, because there are few state-related factors or scandals affecting the contest. Neither Republican Senator James Talent nor the challenger, state auditor Claire McCaskill, has been able to gain a clear advantage.