Democrats, poised for gains, remaining on the offensive
Republicans seek to keep losses to a minimum
WASHINGTON -- Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office.
Republicans looked to their get-out-the-vote operation and public rallies by Bush to minimize their potential losses on Tuesday.
In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country. Republicans virtually concede the loss of 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.
The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need six more seats to take control. A three-seat gain is almost guaranteed, but they would have to find the other three seats for control from only four states considered tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana.
In governors' races, Democrats are likely to emerge with the majority for the first time in 12 years. Five states are almost sure to switch parties, including Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. Four races are too close to call, but only one -- Wisconsin -- is held by a Democrat.
Bush was campaigning in Colorado and Texas yesterday, and in will be in Nebraska tomorrow, emphasizing the strength of the economy and the Republicans' key domestic themes.
In his last weekly radio address before the elections, Bush defended his economic policies. "The last thing American families and small businesses need now is a higher tax bill," he said in a live broadcast from Englewood, Colo. "And that is what you'll get if the Democrats take control of the Congress."
All 435 House seats are on the ballot, as well as 33 Senate and 36 gubernatorial races.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll indicated some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a 6-percentage-point lead among likely voters nationally in party preference for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections.
Representative Rahm Emamuel, Democrat of Illinois and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stopped short of predicting Democrats will take the House, but said, "I'm playing defense in one or two districts and offense in 46. I like those odds."
Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman predicted his party will retain majorities in both the House and Senate. "The Senate is in a better place than it was a week ago," he said, noting GOP candidates in several of the closest races have improved their positions. He said the strong turnout operation that could save many incumbents in tossup races.
Republicans are fighting three forces: opposition to the war in Iraq, declining approval of the president, and historically low ratings for a Congress that struggled to produce notable achievements and that was often mired in partisanship.
The Democratic swing in the House is most evident in states east of the Mississippi River where scandals, retirements, and disaffection with the war in Iraq have combined to put almost three dozen Republican-held seats potentially at risk.
Ohio, which was the swing state that ensured Bush's second-term victory, has turned into a Republican killing field. Republicans face the loss of the governorship and a Senate seat, and five GOP-House districts could switch. Republicans fear the loss of other statewide races and at least one house of the Legislature.
Other GOP danger areas include Pennsylvania, where a Senate seat and five incumbents are at risk, and Indiana, where Democrats could pick up three House seats. In New York, Republicans are defending half a dozen House districts.
In Connecticut, Republicans are deeply worried about veteran Representatives Nancy L. Johnson and Christopher H. Shays, and are slightly more assured about Representative Robert R. Simmons.
There are multiple opportunities for Democrats in Florida, Kentucky, Colorado, Minnesota, and Arizona. Single seats are at risk of switching in California, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming.
The odds are steeper for the Democrats in their bid to take over the Senate, because they must win at least four states that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004, three of them with GOP incumbents.
Democrats are favored to defeat Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania with state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., and Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio with Representative Sherrod Brown. Senator Lincoln D. Chafee of Rhode Island appears to be trailing Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse. 