Kerry's fate could hinge on a big Democratic win
WASHINGTON -- As national Democrats hang bunting and prepare for what they hope will be a joyous victory celebration in Washington tonight, John F. Kerry will be back in Massachusetts, quietly standing behind his state's gubernatorial nominee.
No one has worked harder to bring about a national victory than Kerry: National Journal reported yesterday that Kerry had stumped for more candidates this year than any other Democrat -- a whopping 170, according to his office.
Kerry's treks around the country were supposed to help erase bad memories of 2004 -- convincing Democrats that Kerry was a dogged worker and belonged among the party's top contenders for 2008.
Instead, the campaign ended with the senator on the sidelines, grounded like a high-schooler caught misbehaving in class during the week before the prom.
His "botched joke" about kids who don't study hard getting stuck in Iraq gave the Republicans ammunition at a time when they were running out of it.
He then either misjudged the situation or let his anger get the better of him: By choosing to lash out at the Republican scandal machine rather than quietly apologize, he guaranteed that the story would stay in the news.
Now, Kerry has to hope that the Democrats get a big enough victory to wash away any recriminations.
But if the election returns fail to meet the party's skyhigh expectations, Kerry would be among the biggest goats.
In a few months, if not weeks, the senator will consult with his supporters to decide whether to launch another presidential campaign.
Kerry clearly wants to do it, but the joke could be on him:
Many people in Washington believe his attempt at humor raised enough doubts about his abilities on the campaign trail that some supporters will try to dissuade him from running again.
In a fairer world -- that is, a nonpolitical world -- the gaffe would be easily dismissed. Kerry is a decorated combat veteran, and he has stood with veterans on hundreds of stages, and on dozens of issues, during his 22 years in the Senate.
But the political pros in the Democratic Party -- the fundraisers and campaign workers whose support any presidential candidate needs -- will be judging on a tougher scale.
Some of those pros had already thought Kerry performed badly in 2004, losing a winnable race. The botched joke will give more credence to those who consider Kerry an accident-prone politician.
Ironically, Kerry's stock had been rising before the joke, which was made in California last week.
His decision to lead the libuster against Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. earlier this year had won him liberal support. His early endorsement of a timed withdrawal from Iraq had brought clarity to his views on the war.
As the 2006 season got underway, he continued making successful moves. He intervened at a crucial moment to help James Webb, a former Republican and former Navy secretary, defeat a more liberal Democrat in the party's senatorial primary in Virginia. Now, Webb is at least an even bet to defeat Republican Senator George Allen, giving Kerry the loyalty of one of the party's most credible voices on national security.
But the many bad decisions surrounding the botched joke have raised questions about whether Kerry's political radar -- and his political team -- have really improved since 2004.
The scripted joke that Kerry was supposed to deliver was a touchy one even before he mucked it up: "Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy? You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq.
Just ask President Bush."
As The Boston Globe reported last year, Kerry's grades at Yale University were even worse than the president's. Both were known to have goofed off a lot.
It doesn't matter who, in particular, penned the joke, but it points up the longstanding perception that Kerry has done a poor job of building a staff. Some big-name Democrats, including Hillary Clinton and Edward M. Kennedy, are known for their ability to attract the party's top writers and thinkers; Kerry is not.
And the fact that Kerry veered from the text in a way that made a bad speech worse is no surprise, either; in 2004, reporters with advance copies of Kerry's speeches would chuckle over how he added unnecessary words and stepped on his applause lines.
Now, Kerry has to hope that a big Democratic victory wipes away his sins -- or at least leaves them on a par with those of some potential 2008 rivals. After all, Hillary Clinton has issued her own share of groan-inducing quotes, starting with a crack about not wanting to stay home and bake cookies. Former Vice President Al Gore, the party's 2000 presidential nominee, was treated roughly by the Republicans, and John Edwards was fairly toothless as Kerry's running mate in 2004.
Kerry can only hope that he, too, survives to fight again.
He has worked hard for another shot at the White House. But there are now real questions about whether he'll be able to take it.
Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond. 