Three big states push for earlier primaries

WASHINGTON -- Political leaders in California, Florida, and Michigan are gaining momentum in their efforts to move up the 2008 presidential primaries in their states to shortly after New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, which could lead some candidates to focus less attention on the Granite State and trigger a dramatic increase in the cost of early campaigning.

The three states are not expected to trump a New Hampshire law that requires it to hold the nation's first primary one week before any other state. But political leaders in the three states have indicated they want to move up their primary dates as close as possible to New Hampshire's vote, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 22.

That has alarmed Democratic Party leaders, who have worked to protect New Hampshire's prominence and provide powerful roles for early caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and the nation's second primary, in South Carolina.

Political strategist Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign and is a member of the Democratic National Committee's presidential nominating commission, said she is "deeply concerned" that California and Florida want to move up their primaries. California, for example, is scheduled to vote in June 2008 but wants to change the date to February or early March.

"Every state wants time in the spotlight, but the more states move up, the less sunlight there is" for candidates who don't have large campaign war chests, Brazile said.

The DNC has given prominence to Nevada and South Carolina as a counterweight to the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire -- small states that have relatively few minority residents and are not racially or ethnically representative of the Democratic Party nationwide. "One of the reasons we try to find smaller states is to reduce costs of the campaigning," Brazile said.

Campaigning in California, Florida, and Michigan, by contrast, would be extraordinarily expensive, which could benefit well-financed front-runners such as Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona and Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. That is a sensitive topic at the DNC, which is chaired by Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor and presidential contender who sought the 2004 nomination with a grass-roots effort.

In Michigan, meanwhile, Republicans are working with Democrats to push a plan that would give them the option of moving their presidential caucus up one week, from Feb. 9 to Feb. 2.

Though moving the caucus date would violate DNC rules, it could get signed into law during the Legislature's lame-duck session next month, said Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis . "There is widespread agreement from both sides that we will do this. The question is just when we will get it done," Anuzis said.

An early vote in Michigan could boost the presidential bid of Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, a Republican whose father served as governor of Michigan. A Romney spokesman did not return a call seeking comment.

Staci Paxton, a spokeswoman for the DNC, said the committee is "concerned about front-loading," a reference to bunching primaries in the early days of the presidential campaign calendar. She said that party leaders would tackle the issue in December and consider a proposal to provide "bonus delegates" to states that agree to hold primaries later in the year.

The incoming speaker of the Florida Legislature, Republican Marco Rubio, said one of his top priorities will be to move up his state's primary to shortly after the New Hampshire vote.

"We think that for both political parties it is important, because their nominees cannot be elected without winning Florida," said Rubio, who was sworn into office Tuesday. "I haven't met anybody in Florida who is against the idea."

Rubio reportedly wants Florida to vote one week after New Hampshire, but he has not decided on a date, according to an aide.

In California's Legislature, Speaker of the House Fabio Nunez, a Democrat, has said he intends to try to shift California's primary, which was held in March in 2004 and is currently is scheduled for June 2008, when there is little possibility the state's voters would have an impact on the nomination contests.

Nunez has said California, the nation's most populous state, deserves a say in the presidential selection process because it represents a cross-section of America and has one of the world's largest economies.

Proponents of moving up the California and Florida primaries argue that their states' size and diversity provide a more realistic test of a candidate at a time when campaigns are mostly waged on television.

"Like it or not, television is the name of the game here, and that is the way you win nationally," said Nunez spokesman Steven Maviglio, who spent six years as a New Hampshire legislator before moving to California. Maviglio said that while he understands the New Hampshire sentiment that small states provide a testing ground for unproven candidates, the reality is that "Democratic candidates who win will have to compete in large-market states."

While New Hampshire officials are concerned that early votes by large states would dilute their state's impact, some analysts said it might make the Granite State as important as ever because it would remain a relatively inexpensive place for a lesser known candidate to make a strong showing.

"The longer a state waits to hold their election the more irrelevant they become," said Bill Mayer, a Northeastern University professor who has studied the primaries. "But at the same time, whenever they move up they make New Hampshire more important -- not less."

A number of states have already scheduled primaries for Feb. 5, 2008, including Alabama, Arkansas, New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and West Virginia. That has already led to concerns that the nomination will be decided early -- even before Florida, California, and Michigan began talking about moving up their votes.

"All of this is proof the national parties have never solved the front-loading problem and that is a sad thing," said Kathy Sullivan, head of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

But US Representative Hilda Solis, a California Democrat who served on the DNC's presidential nominating commission, said the proposal for an earlier primary in California would be good for her constituents, who, she said, are often not heard in the presidential contest.

"During the commission's hearing it was very heart-wrenching to hear stories from the Northeast and Midwest, who are fighting for their very valid concerns and traditions," Solis said. "But this idea is an opportunity for those in the Southwest, particularly Latinos, to help set the national agenda."