'US policy is not working'
In stark terms, study group urges major change on Iraq
WASHINGTON -- The bipartisan Iraq Study Group yesterday delivered a broad indictment of US strategy in Iraq, recommending that the military mission shift from combat to training local forces and urging the White House to enlist Syria and Iran to help rescue the "grave and deteriorating" situation.
Without setting a timetable, the group also asserted that the United States could withdraw most combat troops by early 2008. But to reach that goal, the panel said, the Bush administration must immediately reassign far more US troops to advise Iraqi Army units, aggressively pursue the help of Iraq's influential neighbors, and place new pressure on the Iraqi government to reach a political settlement between warring ethnic groups.
The panel, headed by former secretary of state James A. Baker III and Lee Hamilton , a former Indiana congressman, contradicts the administration's repeated claims of progress in the war, which has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqis and at least 2,918 US troops since the US-led invasion in March 2003 -- including 10 more Americans yesterday.
"Current US policy is not working, as the level of violence in Iraq is rising and the government is not advancing national reconciliation," said the report. "Making no changes in policy would simply delay the day of reckoning at a high cost."
Baker, secretary of state during the presidency of Bush's father, George H. W. Bush , told reporters the current approach "is no longer viable."
President Bush, who met with Baker and Hamilton to receive the report before it was made public yesterday, said that all 79 recommendations in the 160-page report "will be taken very seriously by this administration."
"This report gives a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq," said Bush. "It is a report that brings some really very interesting proposals, and we will take every proposal seriously and we will act in a timely fashion."
But the White House declined to say whether -- or when -- it would act on the recommendations. Bush is carrying out his own review of Iraq policy. He has already insisted the United States would not engage in direct talks with Iran or Syria unless Iran agrees to stop enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons and Syria stops fomenting violence in the region. The report urged him to undertake such talks without conditions.
Still, the unanimous assessment was likely to put enormous pressure on the president. Democrats, set to take over control of both houses of Congress next month, said yesterday they will use their new leverage to press for the changes.
"Because these recommendations have bipartisan support from the ISG, I am encouraged that bipartisan consensus might be achieved within Congress and with the administration, as well," said Representative Ike Skelton , a Missouri Democrat who is slated to chair the House Armed Services Committee.
The report, commissioned by Congress and compiled with the support of the nonpartisan US Institute of Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies , provided a blunt and dark assessment of the current situation in Iraq -- and of the threat of what might lie ahead.
"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe," the report said. "A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shi'a clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized."
Senator John F. Kerry , Democrat of Massachusetts, said in an interview that the report "validated much of what we have been saying for more than two years," particularly the need to rely on forceful diplomacy to achieve a political solution. "A major diplomatic effort and getting the Mideast peace process back on the block is how you get from here to there."
Iraqi officials yesterday said they were not surprised by the findings and agreed that Iraqis need to be responsible for their own security.
"The situation is grave, very grave in fact, and cannot be tolerated," Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh said on the pan-Arab satellite TV channel Al-Arabiya , according to the Associated Press. "Absolute dependence on foreign troops is not possible. The focus must be on boosting the Iraqi security forces."
The commission and its staff, which undertook several fact-finding trips to Iraq over the past 10 months, portrayed a country seized by sectarian violence and said it is getting worse. "Violence is increasing in scope, complexity, and lethality," the report said.
It blamed insurgents -- a mix of former Saddam Hussein supporters, Sunni Arabs, and common criminals for most attacks on US troops and militant followers of Al Qaeda for the most spectacular attacks -- including those that have sparked the "deadly cycle" of sectarian reprisals between Iraq's Sunnis and Shi'as that is most responsible for mounting civilian deaths.
It said that while there are some encouraging economic indicators -- including growing trade and new construction in secure areas -- inflation is above 50 percent and unemployment is high as 60 percent. Oil, the country's main industry, remains below prewar production at 2.2 million barrels a day. Meanwhile, as a result of "debilitating" corruption, as many as 500,000 barrels are siphoned off to the black market.
According to the report, a first step toward establishing effective Iraqi security control is to embed more US troops with Iraqi Army units. "The United States should significantly increase the number of and quality of US military personnel, including combat troops, embedded in and supporting the Iraqi Army units," it said. "As these actions proceed, we could begin to move combat forces out of Iraq. The primary mission of US forces in Iraq should evolve to one of supporting the Iraqi Army."
Study group member Charles S. Robb , a Vietnam veteran and former Democratic senator from Virginia, told reporters that increasing the number of embedded advisers from about 4,000 to 20,000, using existing troops in Iraq, would bring a "more robust capability with an Iraqi face on it."
Former secretary of defense William J. Perry said that more US troops -- currently 140,000 -- would not be needed. "It can be done, I believe, with the existing combat brigade troops," he said.
The group also called for more diplomacy with other countries that have leverage in the region.
"A reinvigorated diplomatic effort is required because it is clear that the Iraqi government cannot succeed in governing, defending, and sustaining itself by relying on US military and economic support alone," said the report.
The effort should also address other nettlesome issues in the Middle East, paramount among them the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains a major flashpoint for extremist forces, it said.
"Everything in the Middle East is connected to everything else," said Hamilton.
The report said the most critical partners would be Iran, which has the most leverage in Iraq, and Syria, which has been a major transit point for Al Qaeda terrorists entering Iraq
The report also called on the United States to "reduce its political, military or economic support for the Iraqi government" if Iraqi leaders don't make substantial progress . The report portrays key Iraqi leaders who "too often act in their sectarian interest."
Some Democrats in Congress, including Kerry, complained that the report did not go far enough in calling for a specific timeline for troop withdrawal.
But several group members said the country must rally behind what could be the last opportunity to turn the war around.
"This war has badly divided this country," said Leon Panetta , chief of staff to President Clinton. "This country cannot be at war and be as divided as we are today."
Globe staff reporters Rick Klein and Farah Stockman contributed to this report. 