Decision looms for Kerry on '08 run

WASHINGTON -- After sending strong signals for two years about a second run for the presidency, Senator John F. Kerry has held no public political events in more than two months, even as his potential rivals ramp up their own campaigns.

Behind the scenes, Kerry has been more active, hiring several top operatives and hosting several major fund-raisers with Democratic activists, including a breakfast yesterday in New York City and a birthday event at his Beacon Hill home last month, where he raised $250,000.

Aides to the Massachusetts Democrat said he is still mulling whether he should run again for president in 2008. A decision is likely to be made before the end of the month.

But Kerry's low public profile in recent weeks has fueled some speculation in political circles that the 2004 presidential nominee will forgo another run, in recognition of the difficult task he probably would have in persuading primary voters to turn to him a second time. "I wouldn't be surprised if he sees the handwriting on the wall," said Alan Wolfe , a political science professor at Boston College. "I don't see any chance of him getting the nomination. The only question is, does he think he has a chance?"

To that end, Kerry has kept up his contacts with major fund-raisers through a series of meetings with his finance committee. He has a top-tier Democratic operative, Ed Reilly, running his political operation, and has a potential campaign team in place that includes two former top Democratic National Committee aides, John Giesser and Jackson "Jay" Dunn, as well as his 2004 political director, Amy Dacey .

Through his Senate office and his political action committee, Kerry has recently signed on several prominent aides. Theo Yedinsky , who was Kerry's New Hampshire political director in 2004, is joining the PAC, along with Erik Smith , who was a spokesman for former Representative Richard A. Gephardt. Vincent Morris , a former New York Post reporter who was communications director for outgoing Washington mayor Anthony Williams, joined Kerry's Senate staff yesterday.

Yet Kerry's most recent public political event came Oct. 31 in Seattle -- at a news conference in which he refused to apologize for the self-described "botched joke" about troops' education. That incident prompted Kerry to cancel remaining campaign appearances on behalf of congressional candidates, and he has made no political trips since the election.

Until the joke, Kerry had kept an aggressive travel schedule that started within months of his loss to President Bush in November 2004. Kerry appeared to be laying the groundwork for a second run, developing a streamlined antiwar message and working to elect scores of Democrats to Congress.

Now, however, Kerry has gone quiet at the same time that other potential Democratic candidates are gearing up.

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois made his first trip to New Hampshire last month, and Kerry's 2004 running mate, former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, announced his 2008 candidacy two weeks ago with a six-state tour.

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware said Sunday that he's running for president, joining former governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa and Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio in a field that is quickly growing crowded. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has been more coy in public, but has begun reaching out to activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other key states in preparation for a run.

Kathy Sullivan , chairwoman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, said she has not spoken with Kerry in two months -- since shortly after the Nov. 7 congressional elections. If he runs again, she said, he would find some residual support in New Hampshire, but he would also confront some deep skepticism about whether he should get in for another run.

"Democrats are not very good about treating our former nominees very well," Sullivan said. "As much as I like John Kerry, why does he want to put himself through [it] again, the Democratic naysayers and the Republican attack machine? He's such a good man, and such a good person."

Kerry aides say that with $13 million in his campaign account and wide name recognition stemming from his last run, the senator has more flexibility than many of his rivals in terms of making an announcement. That gives him the ability to see how the field takes shape and how his standing in the party is perceived before he makes a decision.

But even Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, one of Kerry's biggest allies in 2004, has pointed out the downside of the wait-and-see approach. Kennedy warned last month that if Kerry waits until spring to decide, he may support another Democrat for president.

"Every day that goes by is a day that someone else hires someone in Iowa or New Hampshire, or signs up another fund-raiser," said Chris Lehane , a Democratic strategist who worked for Kerry early in his 2004 campaign before leaving in a staff shake-up. "You cannot dismiss the fact that he has a significant amount of money in a campaign account, but he needs to find a niche in this race."

After Kennedy went public with his concerns, a Kerry spokesman, David Wade, said Kerry would make a decision "shortly after the turn of the year," an announcement that persuaded Kennedy to stay on board. Still, Wade said the senator has no firm deadline for making up his mind.

"I know it's the 'hot-stove' season for presidential politics, when every phone call, meeting, and wink of the eye is analyzed for greater meaning, but Senator Kerry's decision-making process hasn't changed," Wade said.

On Sunday, a potential Kerry candidacy got a boost when Governor Deval Patrick said in a television interview that he would support Kerry if he runs, despite Patrick's friendship with Obama and Clinton.