On 2008 trail, money scramble takes new forms

Mitt Romney lets college students keep a commission on what they raise from friends. Hillary Clinton had her husband woo cyclists at a New York exercise class. Barack Obama is training old-guard Democratic donors to mentor the young and the generous -- and exploit their online savvy.

In their ferocious jockeying for cash, presidential candidates are employing novel tactics to pump every dollar they can into their 2008 campaigns, fueling what is widely expected to be the first $1 billion race for the White House.

The unusually intense early fund-raising activity, observers say, reflects the accelerated primary calendar, which is forcing candidates to spend money earlier than in past years in newly pivotal states such as Florida and California.

The intensity of the money scramble will become clear over the next two weeks, as each campaign files its first-quarter fund-raising report with the Federal Election Commission. The reports will reflect all the money the campaigns have raised and spent from Jan. 1 through midnight tonight.

With large fields of candidates on both the Republican and Democratic sides and the media hungry for ways to measure the contenders, the amounts the candidates raise -- and how they conform to expectations -- will define the campaign in the weeks ahead. Candidates with surprisingly strong fund-raising hauls will be deemed more viable, while candidates with underwhelming tallies will be seen as weaker -- and, potentially, finished.

"This is the narrative," said Republican strategist Ed Rollins. "This is the measurement."

The campaigns have until April 15 to file first-quarter reports, but the figures are sure to trickle out sooner. Every candidate has something to prove.

On the Republican side, many observers and GOP insiders expect Romney, a renowned fund-raiser, to put up a strong number. If he does, it would underscore his top-tier status and give him some much-needed positive press after a stream of critical stories about his shifts to more conservative positions on key issues. Senator John McCain of Arizona will also be expected to show he has raised a healthy sum.

In recent days, Romney and McCain have engaged in a fierce bout of expectations-setting: Each campaign has asserted the other will have raised the most money, thus setting the bar low for themselves and high for the opponent.

Observers say the other leading GOP contender, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, needs to demonstrate that his high standing in national polls reflects a broad base of supporters across the country willing to write checks. Other Republican candidates, including former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, need to have raised enough to remain competitive.

"If history is any guide, some candidates may be forced to withdraw from the race next month after these reports are filed," said Michael E. Toner, a former FEC chairman. "After all, if you've raised $2 or $3 million and your opponents have raised $33 million, that's tough arithmetic."

Analysts expect the leading candidates in both parties to raise $100 million each in 2007, with the strongest contenders reaching perhaps $30 million in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2003, all candidates combined raised just under $31 million, according to the Campaign Finance Institute, a non profit research group in Washington.

Among Democrats, Clinton's vaunted fund-raising apparatus is expected to post a formidable first-quarter number. But Obama, with help from a robust network of supporters on the Internet, is also likely to have a good showing.

With Clinton and Obama strong, some analysts say, former senator John Edwards of North Carolina needs to prove with his first-quarter report that he can keep up. And one of the lesser-mentioned Democratic candidates, Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, could surprise with a solid first-quarter figure.

The clamor for contributions has spawned new and creative ways of fund-raising.

Consider the scene one evening last week at SoulCycle, a cycling studio on New York's Upper West Side. For a $2,300 contribution (the individual maximum) to Clinton's presidential campaign, 33 cyclists got an hour long audience with the candidate's husband, former president Bill Clinton.

The donors weren't in lycra and spandex, though: Senator Clinton's campaign, alert to the potential for a tabloid photo of her husband with women in exercise garb, required donors to wear modest tops and long pants or leggings.

Romney, in a page out of his business background, is hiring college students around the country to raise money for him. Those who rake in more than $1,000 keep 10 percent of all they raise.

Sarah Isgur, a second-year Harvard Law School student helping lead the effort, said the program -- details are at studentsformitt.com -- will attract students who may be reluctant to merely volunteer.

"When you're looking at summer jobs, a campaign where you're working for free isn't always feasible for people," said Isgur, a 24-year-old from Houston.

Obama's campaign is trying to engage a younger generation of donors and have veterans teach them the ropes. Mark Goodman, a 39-year-old venture capitalist from Cambridge who has never been active in politics, signed up to help Obama and is getting guidance from Alan Solomont, a storied Democratic donor leading the campaign's fund-raising in New England.

"My only hesitation was, I don't know if I can raise that kind of money," said Goodman, describing strategy sessions with Solomont and other veterans as "campaigning 101." "But I love talking about [Obama's] campaign, I love talking about why he's the right person at the right time."

Fund-raising over the Internet, which exploded in the last presidential campaign, is getting even more attention this time. McCain, for example, created websites where people can track his "Straight Talk Express" bus tours through Iowa and New Hampshire. Visitors are urged to "Keep the tank full!" by sending contributions.

But candidates are also packing in as many traditional fund-raising events as possible.

Clinton and Obama, for example, have reaped huge windfalls from Hollywood, a reliable reservoir of Democratic dollars. Romney and McCain have fought hard over President Bush's biggest fund-raisers, who brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars by working their Rolodexes.

Boston has once again become a key fund-raising stop, mostly for the Democrats. Clinton had a 500-person, $1,000-per-plate event scheduled for the State Room last night; Obama has a big event April 20 at Boston University's Agganis Arena open to donors of all levels.

History, though, offers a note of caution for this year's biggest first-quarter earners. According to the Campaign Finance Institute, of the five top fund-raisers in comparable quarters -- Phil Gramm, John F. Kerry, Al Gore, George W. Bush, and John Edwards -- only Bush won the presidency.

Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com.