McCain follows rival in skipping Iowa straw poll

DES MOINES -- Senator John McCain of Arizona yesterday became the second leading presidential candidate to drop out of a key Republican straw poll in Ames, Iowa, this summer, casting serious doubt on how much influence the event will have in the 2008 nominating process.

McCain's announcement came the same day The Des Moines Register reported that former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani would skip the Ames poll on Aug. 11. Both candidates say they will instead focus their energy in Iowa on winning the caucuses, currently scheduled for January.

The much-anticipated straw poll has been a celebrated event in GOP presidential politics whose result has often indicated which candidates fare well in the caucuses. Other 2008 candidates, including Mitt Romney, planned to spend millions to win the poll, though his and the other campaigns immediately began reassessing their strategies yesterday after the announcements from McCain and Giuliani.

McCain's campaign said yesterday that with Giuliani out, the Ames straw poll has lost its meaning.

"In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames straw poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forgo our participation in the event," McCain's campaign manager, Terry Nelson, said in a statement.

Nelson emphasized that McCain, who skipped Iowa entirely when he ran for president in 2000, is still committed to winning the state this time around. McCain has already held 19 town hall meetings across Iowa and will host four more this weekend, according to his campaign.

"John McCain has built a solid grass-roots organization in Iowa and intends to win the state's caucuses," Nelson said. "He appreciates the unique and critical role the caucuses play in the nomination process and enjoys traveling the state, meeting Iowans, and holding town hall meetings."

Party officials and aides to other candidates differ over whether the Ames poll will still matter. State GOP chairman Ray Hoffmann said the decisions by McCain and Giuliani could mean that Romney -- who has surged in some Iowa polls, visited the state regularly, and built a formidable organization here -- will get an automatic boost when Republican activists gather at Iowa State University on Aug. 11.

"Looks like they just gave [Ames] up to Romney," Hoffmann said.

Romney's campaign asserted bluntly yesterday that McCain and Giuliani had dropped out after realizing they couldn't compete with Romney's operation.

"Our plan all along has been to play in the Iowa straw poll, and that hasn't changed," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said in a statement. "Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa."

Madden added, "It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them."

Hoffmann also said the development could aid lower-tier candidates hoping for a strong showing in the straw poll.

"Ames still matters because now it may give an advantage to those who either have not campaigned much in the state or are just getting into the race to play catch-up," he said,

Since the first straw poll, in 1979, every candidate who has won the caucuses has performed well in Ames. But poor performances in the straw poll have ended campaigns. The last Republican straw poll in 1999 halted the campaigns of Pat Buchanan, Dan Quayle, Elizabeth Dole, and Lamar Alexander.

One Republican presidential candidate this year, former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, has said his campaign is effectively dead if he doesn't finish in the top two in Ames.

But Steve Grubbs, a senior campaign adviser to Thompson, said yesterday that the decisions by McCain and Giuliani change the campaign's approach, and might spur it to drop out, too.

"We were completely confident that we could beat Mayor Giuliani and had a 50-50 shot at beating Romney or McCain," said Grubbs, a past chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. "We were going to heavily invest in Ames, using it as a springboard to gain some respect in the national news media. But now we are going to have to think of a different method."

Grubbs added, "I think that it creates some big challenges for the Ames straw poll to remain relevant." The straw poll has been a major fund-raiser for the party, and Grubbs said it could cost the GOP dearly if this year's gathering becomes a non-event that draws far fewer people.

Giuliani's decision not to compete in Ames was not entirely surprising, because his campaign had already floated the possibility of bypassing the event. A top Giuliani adviser in Iowa, former US representative Jim Nussle, had recently called the straw poll a "circus." McCain's announcement, however, shook up the Iowa political scene.

"I wasn't surprised, but disappointed, to hear about Rudy dropping out, but I was shocked to hear about McCain," Hoffmann said. "This was a huge mistake on their part. He skipped Iowa in 1999 and look where that got him."

Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com.