Thompson gains among social conservatives

Fred Thompson, speaking last month in New Hampshire, is expected to join the GOP primary race after Labor Day. (jim cole/associated press)

Some of the nation's most influential social conservatives say their movement is quickly coalescing around Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee, for the Republican presidential nomination, a decision that would bolster his expected campaign with money and grass-roots support.

Dissatisfied with the current crop of GOP contenders, these conservative leaders say Thompson, despite new questions about his record on abortion, possesses the right combination of electability and conservative values -- the two ingredients they believe are necessary to energize evangelical voters and keep the White House in Republican hands in 2008.

"There's a consensus developing around him that's pretty clear and pretty profound," said John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council, an Orlando-based conservative group. "I've never seen anything like it in 25 years in politics."

Some social conservative leaders say they are withholding judgment until Thompson, who is expected to join the race around Labor Day, fully commits to the campaign. But others say there is a deliberate attempt to rally behind Thompson's candidacy, which would give him a key advantage in early primary states such as South Carolina, where religious voters carry significant influence. It would also deal a setback to rivals, notably Mitt Romney, who are making a concerted play for the party's conservative flank.

While some analysts contend that social conservatives hold less sway than they once did, conservatives argue that it would be difficult for any candidate to win the Republican nomination without them. And with polls suggesting that many GOP primary voters are looking for an alternative to the current front-runners, some conservative leaders say Thompson is perfectly positioned.

"It's almost as if the man and the moment met," said Richard Land, who speaks for more than 16 million people as head of public policy for the nation's Southern Baptists.

Land said he will not endorse a candidate in the primary, but his boosterish comments about Thompson -- like those of other conservative leaders -- leave little doubt about his excitement about the former senator. He said support for Thompson was spreading "almost like a prairie fire" and predicted that some conservative leaders would endorse the 64-year-old actor and lawyer in coming weeks.

One signal that conservatives are flocking to Thompson has come in the last few weeks in the response to reports in the Los Angeles Times and The New York Times that he once lobbied the administration of George H. W. Bush on behalf of an abortion-rights group.

Influential figures such as Gary Bauer, a former presidential candidate who now leads American Values, a conservative public policy organization, and Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council, an evangelical Christian group, have been noticeably forgiving of Thompson on the issue. They have questioned the accuracy of the newspaper reports, defended any work he may have done as merely a lawyer working for a client, or pointed instead to what they say is his impeccable eight-year Senate record on "life" issues.

Before and during his Senate career, Thompson made statements in support of abortion rights, and Christian conservatives even backed his primary opponent when he first ran for Senate in 1994. Thompson has since said that his beliefs have evolved, particularly after seeing sonograms of his two young daughters, and now calls himself "prolife."

"I see a lot in him to be encouraged about," Perkins said in an interview. "I think he stands the best chance of getting evangelical support."

Another sign that conservatives are lining up behind Thompson came last week, when former House speaker Newt Gingrich -- a beloved figure to many on the right -- was quoted by the Associated Press saying he may not enter the presidential race if Thompson makes a strong run.

Linda Rozett, a spokeswoman for Thompson, said that he was still only testing the waters for a presidential bid but that it was "certainly gratifying when anyone looks at his record and thinks that he is a man worth their support."

The precise level of that support for Thompson -- and what, in concrete terms, that support will mean -- is difficult to gauge at this point. If high-profile leaders endorse him, it would send a signal to their followers that Thompson is the sanctioned candidate, potentially sparking grass-roots volunteer efforts, campaign contributions, and, ultimately, votes. Some conservative leaders also control political action committees, which they could use to raise and spend money on behalf of a Thompson bid.

Conservatives say the desire to rally behind Thompson stems partly from wanting a primary competitor strong enough to stop Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, who is leading in many polls but whose support for abortion rights makes him unacceptable to many Republicans.

"He's got a real good chance to emerge as the conservative alternative to Giuliani," Bauer said. Asked about Romney, who is also vying for the religious right's support, Bauer said, "They'll battle it out, but if I had to characterize it right now, I would say that the momentum here has moved to Thompson, at least among the social-issues conservatives."

But Romney's campaign believes that the former Massachusetts governor's work building organizations in key states, and his numerous sit-downs with conservative leaders, give him a head start.

"A lot of people ask, they'll say, do you worry about a new candidate coming into the race?" said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. "My response automatically is, worrying is for people without a plan. Worrying is for campaigns without an organization. Right now we are comfortable that we have both and that we can go out and earn support from conservative voters."

Not all conservative leaders have applauded Thompson. James Dobson, the leader of Focus on the Family, raised eyebrows this spring when he told US News & World Report, "I don't think he's a Christian; at least that's my impression." A Focus on the Family spokesman told the magazine that Dobson meant he has "never known Thompson to be a committed Christian -- someone who talks openly about his faith."

And Colleen Parro, executive director of the Republican National Coalition for Life, said questions remain about Thompson's record on abortion -- not just his lobbying work, but his past expressions of support for abortion rights.

"People don't really know where he stands," she said. "They're not sure they can trust him."

Still, it is clear many conservatives are willing to overlook such questions.

"I think there is a genuine comfortable feeling that there may be a candidate out there that everyone can get behind," said Phil Burress, who leads an Ohio-based group called Citizens for Community Values. "He looks like he's the first candidate that's come along that one, can raise money; two, that's electable, and three, we're pretty comfortable with . . . on most of the issues today."

Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com.