Romney rebounds to lead in N.H.

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Mitt Romney boasted an enviable advantage in the first-in-the-nation primary state when he launched his campaign for president: A governor of Massachusetts, he also owned a house on the shores of Lake Winnipesaukee. But as recently as February, Granite Staters appeared to harbor little interest in the boy next door. Polls had him lagging far behind John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

In the last few months, however, Romney has steadily pushed to the head of the Republican pack in New Hampshire, while his major rivals have lost ground. A mid-July poll had him opening up a 15-point lead.

Romney has benefitted from larger forces shaping the race, notably, McCain's difficulties. But he has also run a campaign that might have been lifted straight out of "The Official Guide to Winning the New Hampshire Primary," if there were such a guide to the conventional wisdom. The formula: win over influential activists, advertise early, and lavish New Hampshire with attention.

"It's really no secret what Romney's been doing," said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, who is neutral in the race. "They have run the most traditional campaign in New Hampshire, characterized by the most visits here and the best grass-roots organization and by running a campaign aimed directly at likely Republican primary voters."

Summer polls rarely predict the winner of the election, however, and Romney's opponents say they have only just begun to fight in New Hampshire.

But with Romney's surge in the polls came a rise in expectations: With McCain seriously weakened and with Romney's early advantages in New Hampshire, it is hard at this point to see a state where he is better positioned to win.

Romney has made 65 stops during 23 official trips to New Hampshire since the last presidential election, according to the Globe's running count, more than McCain and Giuliani combined. Marketing himself as a business leader and family man with a Reaganesque optimism about the future, he has visited all 10 New Hampshire counties, headlining Republican fund-raisers, dropping by ice cream stands, and, more recently, holding town-hall-style forums where he invites locals to "Ask Mitt Anything."

He has had 14 full-time staff members on the ground for about two months, his campaign says, enough to make sure that every visit by the candidate is carefully planned and that Romney is represented whenever Republicans gather.

Perhaps most significantly, at least as far as early polls are concerned, Romney has spent nearly $725,000 since February on television ads highlighting his biography and fiscal conservatism on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only network-affiliated commercial station, as well as additional ads on cable stations. Neither McCain nor Giuliani has aired a single television commercial.

"You can't underestimate the importance of having ads right now," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, who has been tracking the race. "It doesn't mean they're going to vote for him necessarily, but he's fresh in their minds."

But Smith added that the polls may also partly reflect Romney's expanding ground effort.

"The campaign itself is working at a much faster pace and a much more intense rate than any of the other candidates on the Democratic or Republican side," he said. "It's the kind of activity you see in the last month of the campaign."

Romney began investing in the state more than two years ago, courting local activists in one-on-one meetings, speaking at party fund-raisers and even hosting a state GOP fund-raiser at his Wolfeboro home in September 2005.

He also used his political war chest strategically to gain traction. Since 2004, the Commonwealth PAC, a political action committee set up by Romney advisers to help him explore a presidential run, has showered local Republican candidates with cash, doling out hundreds of thousands of dollars to candidates he hoped to befriend and to the county and state party committees in New Hampshire and other states.

Over time, he won over a number of local political heavyweights, including Donna Sytek, a respected former House speaker and former state party chairwoman from the heavily Republican southern tier; and Bruce Keough, who narrowly lost the 2002 Republican nomination for governor.

He also recruited Tom Rath, the state's former national committeeman and a longtime New Hampshire campaign adviser to both presidents Bush. Rath's consulting firm is being paid about $12,500 a month for strategic advice by the campaign.

As director of his New Hampshire operation, Romney signed on James Merrill, a young lawyer and a rising star in the state party who served as grass-roots cochairman for President Bush's 2004 campaign in New Hampshire.

These operatives understand the importance of one-on-one contact with voters, and they have packed Romney's schedule with opportunities to meet as many voters as possible.

Last week, Romney squeezed 12 events into a day and a half in New Hampshire, racing from Nashua to the Seacoast and from Laconia to Bedford, promising to enhance America's superpower status by strengthening the military, reinvigorating the economy, and promoting conservative family values.

Wherever he went, his field staff had recruited a crowd: Close to 300 attended an "Ask Mitt Anything" forum in Exeter last Sunday, another 250 or so gathered Wednesday in a sweltering middle school auditorium in Bedford.

Some were sold on the spot. Diane Morgera, a Republican and an accountant from Stratham, found much to like in Romney's large, close family -- his wife, son, daughter-in-law, and grandson attended the Exeter forum -- and she felt he had a clear grasp of the country's economic challenges.

"I think he should be president," she declared as she left the Exeter Town Hall. "I'm very impressed with his grasp of issues at a high level, and he has wonderful organizational and administrative skills."

But for most voters interviewed along the trail last week, it was not so simple. While many said they liked what they saw, they were not ready to make up their minds.

"I was really impressed with him; he seemed very relaxed, very confident, and very knowledgeable," said Francene Donahue, an undeclared voter in her late 60s who attended the Bedford forum. But she added that she had also liked Giuliani and that she had not yet settled on a candidate, saying, "I think it's early."

Sergio Gonzalez, 41, an undeclared voter from Somersworth, said Romney "says all the right words."

"But I'm really concerned about some of the changes in his positions in Massachusetts," Gonzalez added. "He seemed to be prochoice. Now he seems to be adamantly prolife, and his explanation of the change seems to be artificial."

Early opinion polls are notoriously poor predictors of primary victors. In July 2000, George W. Bush was well ahead of McCain, who later won the primary by 19 points; Howard Dean towered over his rivals in the summer 2004. And in New Hampshire, Romney has had the luxury of being the only candidate on television for months.

Giuliani began running three radio ads in the state last week and begins a two-day swing in New Hampshire tomorrow. His campaign says that it plans to add more New Hampshire staff soon and that the candidate will be spending more time in the state, whose moderate Republican electorate may be well-suited for the former New York mayor.

While McCain's campaign has suffered serious setbacks, he has a strong team of New Hampshire activists helping him and a reservoir of good will among many Granite Staters from the 2000 campaign. At a forum in Manchester last week, the relatively small crowd seemed to genuinely connect with the senator.

"Governor Romney spent a lot of money in the three early primary states; he's basically executing the McCain strategy for 2000," said Steve Duprey, a former state party chairman who is now McCain's state cochairman. "Now you'll see McCain execute that strategy, as well."

Another probable contender with the potential to reshuffle the deck, former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, has yet to enter the race. On his first visit to New Hampshire in June, more than 500 people showed up to hear his 10-minute speech.

"Several of [the other candidates] have support that's an inch thick and a mile wide," said Dan Hughes, a longtime GOP activist from Newcastle who has been helping Thompson explore a campaign in New Hampshire.

Still, Romney has exploited his head start. Entering the Puritan Backroom restaurant in Manchester the other day, his fifth campaign stop on a blazing afternoon, he seemed eager to seize every chance to win friends.

Frank Messana, 52, a Republican from Bedford, held out a pair of baseballs for him to sign.

"Don't you figure I should get full credit for winning the World Series?" Romney joked.

As the candidate moved on, Messana said he was interested in both Romney and Giuliani. Of Romney, he said, "I like him so far."