Analysts cool on impact of 'super' primary

WASHINGTON -- The "Super-Duper Tuesday" series of primaries proposed for Feb. 5 of next year -- once considered likely to decide the two presidential nominees -- now may be little more than a prelude to a final, decisive series of contests largely in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

More than 20 states are considering or have already decided to move their primaries up to Feb. 5 to have a bigger say in the process, which in previous election cycles was focused on early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire before shifting to the South for a regional, often definitive, series.

Several more states recently considered moving their primaries to Feb. 5, but have rejected the idea.

The huge number now expected to take place on or before Feb. 5 -- including contests in such populous states as New York, California, and Florida -- led many campaign operatives and political specialists to conclude that the nominations would be virtually wrapped up by that day.

But officials in several states with later primaries contend that this is no longer the case, and that states such as Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and even Massachusetts could be crucial players in the race for the White House.

"Ohio is going to be the ace in the hole for some presidential candidates. There are too many people in the race for anyone to emerge as a clear winner on Feb. 5," said Mark Weaver, a GOP consultant based in Columbus, Ohio, a state planning a March 4 primary.

Massachusetts -- another March 4 state that has mainly mattered as a place where candidates raise money on their way to campaign in New Hampshire with its first-in-the-nation primary -- could become an important source of delegates as well, said John Walsh, chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party.

"You could actually see it go to the convention," if no Democratic candidate wins enough delegates to secure the nomination by the time the party meets in Denver this summer, Walsh said.

Pennsylvania deliberately rejected the idea of a Feb. 5 primary, and is instead mulling a move up to Feb. 12. The strategy is to make the Keystone State more relevant than it would be if it joined the "Super Tuesday fiasco," said state Representative Harry Readshaw, sponsor of the legislative bill to move the primary.

"I thought it would make us more independent. We, as the sixth-largest state, would get more consideration" from candidates, Readshaw said.

Mathematically, it would be extremely difficult for a candidate in either party to secure the nomination by Feb. 5.

Democrats, who dole out their delegates proportionately within each primary state, would have a harder time accomplishing such a feat; Republicans, who have winner-take-all primaries in many states, would have an easier chance.

A Democrat needs 2,182 delegates to claim the nomination. If every state considering moving its primary to Feb. 5 does so, 2,211 delegates would be up for grabs, and some of those are "unpledged" delegates who are not required to commit their votes to a particular candidate.

A Democrat would need to win virtually every delegate in every state on or before Feb. 5, a feat analysts believe is virtually impossible with a field of eight candidates, including several running with support in the double digits in early primary state polls.

Republican rules provide more of an opening. In a GOP field that now includes nine candidates -- and may add a 10th, former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee -- the Republican primary structure allows one candidate to build momentum and emerge as a de facto nominee more quickly. A Republican will need 1,259 delegates next year to secure the nomination. If every state mulling a move to Feb. 5 does so, there will be 1,356 delegates available by that date. While a candidate would still have to win nearly every state to claim the nomination outright, the task is easier because most of those states apportion all of their respective delegates to the winner.

Even a very strong showing could give a particular Republican contender enough momentum to scare off many -- if not all -- of the other GOP rivals, said Ron Kaufman, a veteran GOP consultant and Massachusetts steering committee cochairman for the presidential campaign of former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Peter Torkildsen, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party, noted that a lack of funds -- and not electoral math -- has forced candidates to abandon their bids in the past. This compressed primary cycle, Torkildsen said, will merely make that process happen more quickly, quite possibly producing presumptive nominees by Feb. 5.

But other political officials, noting that each party has at least two well-funded contenders each, say the race would merely be winnowed to two or three candidates in each party, setting up the nomination battles for heated showdowns later in February and perhaps into early March.

Mid-February contests include primaries or caucuses in Michigan, Maine, Maryland, Virginia, and Wisconsin; March 4 primaries are planned for Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

"This campaign is not going to be decided on a single day. It may not even be decided on a single day at the convention," said Representative Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio Democrat running for president. Kucinich believes that Ohio, with 161 Democratic delegates, could make a difference.

Democratic Representative James Moran thinks his home state of Virginia -- a state that has 103 Democratic delegates -- could also be an important battleground on Feb. 12.

Candidates in previous cycles have built momentum from wins in early contests, propelling them to their parties' nominations even if they had not secured the actual delegates to guarantee it. Victories in early primary states have also helped candidates raise money for the next round.

But for the 2008 election, the role of such momentum is less clear, since the Feb. 5 primaries come so quickly after the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, political analysts said.

If one candidate in either party sweeps those states, the momentum could put that contender on a speedy path to the nomination, said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. But if the first few states are divided, the battle is likely to be more protracted, Scala and others said.