Romney pulls out all the stops for Iowa GOP straw poll today

AMES, Iowa -- In a quest to solidify his front-runner position in Iowa at today's Republican straw poll, Mitt Romney is going all-out to lure thousands of supporters to Ames, renting a fleet of air-conditioned buses, buying thousands of tickets, and promising free barbecue and entertainment to supporters who make the trip.

The straw poll is typically seen as a key early test of organizational strength for the GOP candidates in the first caucus state. But its significance as a prelude to the caucuses may be diminished this year because the other top GOP candidates have opted not to participate, in effect conceding the straw poll to the former Massachusetts governor.

Romney's real opponent today is an elusive one: expectations. To do well, Romney's margin of victory must at least match his showing in the polls, or about 27 percentage points, said Dennis J. Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University. And an unexpected surge of support for one of the lesser candidates could hurt Romney even if he still wins, he said.

"It's the Patriots playing the Emerson College women's lacrosse team," he said.

Romney has outspent his straw poll opponents in Iowa to an almost comical degree, airing more than $1 million in radio and television ads in the state this year, mailing glossy brochures, placing thousands of phone calls, and paying dozens of local activists stipends of $500 to $1,000 a month to help build his organization.

The goal for Romney's much more poorly financed rivals in this year's straw poll -- former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, Representative Duncan Hunter of California, and Chicago businessman John Cox -- is to survive.

The straw poll typically winnows the Republican field, as second-tier candidates who finish below third place confront the evidence that their candidacies have failed to catch fire.

The straw poll draws thousands of activists from throughout the state to Ames, which is in central Iowa just north of Des Moines, to cast a ballot for their candidates and indulge in a daylong festival of political speeches, food, music, and family activities on the Iowa State University campus. The campaigns foot the bill for it all, as well as the $35 fee for each ballot, the proceeds for which go to the Iowa Republican Party.

Exuding confidence about today's contest, Romney told about 150 supporters at his campaign headquarters that the results will be a shot "heard around the world."

Wrapping up a three-day swing through central and eastern Iowa yesterday, Romney worked to get out the vote. He made the requisite candidate appearance at the Iowa State Fair, flipping pork chops on a grill -- and dropping one of them. Earlier in the day, he urged about 30 people who came to hear him speak at a community center in Ogden to turn out.

"I think voting starts at 10 o'clock, I want to see everyone here, bring five or 10 of your friends," he said. "Whether you vote for me or anybody else, you're welcome."

Turnout is expected to be depressed by the nonparticipation of former mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York, former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, and Senator John McCain of Arizona, whose names will still be on the ballot.

Giuliani, who spent four days on the trail in Ames earlier this week, is running radio ads, and has hired a staff of 14 in Iowa, promises a strong campaign here, as has McCain, who was campaigning here last weekend. Fred Thompson's plans to travel to the state soon made the front page of the Des Moines Register this week.

Rival Republican campaigns have sought to raise turnout expectations for Romney while insinuating he is trying to buy the beauty contest; one circulated estimates yesterday that he could spend as much as $2 million on winning the straw poll. The Romney campaign said it had no estimate of its spending for the event.

At the same time, they also tried to diminish the significance of a Romney victory.

"I don't know what you can make out of it when you don't have everybody participating . . . other than to say he's able to beat Tancredo and Ron Paul and some of the other ones," said David Roederer, McCain's Iowa chairman.

The Romney camp sought to downplay expectations, dismissing the notion that Romney's performance today should be compared with that of President Bush in 1999, when Bush won the straw poll with about 31 percent of the vote. The Romney campaign said the comparison was unrealistic because at that point in 1999, Bush had a dominant lead in the national polls, while Romney does not, and because Romney's relative lead in Iowa over his rivals this year does not match Bush's eight years ago.

But Romney's team has also sought to underline the fact that Romney is the only major candidate participating in the straw poll, and that he has spent more time in the state than his major rivals, attending more than 200 events across the state, by the campaign's count.

"Every cycle, there is a notion on the part of some campaigns that they can skip Iowa, and every cycle, those campaigns I think regret that decision," said Gentry Collins, state director for Romney's Iowa campaign.