Edwards takes risk staking run on Iowa

SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards is staking his campaign on winning Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus, even at the cost of stinting on the next big test in New Hampshire.

Edwards yesterday began a bus tour that will snake through Iowa's cities and towns for seven days -- just a week after a two-day swing -- packed with stops that will let him exploit his down-home style to win over Iowans. He has campaigned here more than twice as much as he has in New Hampshire, where his folksy demeanor does not seem to connect as well with flinty New Englanders.

So far, his Iowa gamble is paying some dividends in the polls, but it is hardly a safe bet.

Iowa is the only state where Edwards has kept up with Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic race. But the latest University of Iowa poll showed that Edwards's lead has shrunk as other candidates spend more time in the state.

In the survey, released Thursday, Edwards had the support of 26 percent of likely caucus voters, compared with 25 percent for Clinton, 19 percent for Obama, and 9 percent for Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. Support for Edwards, however, had dropped 8 percentage points since March.

And in betting so much on his performance in Iowa, some political analysts say, Edwards risks being caught flat-footed in New Hampshire. On the current schedule, the Iowa caucus on Jan. 14 is followed just eight days later by the Granite State primary on Jan. 22. Both states are likely to move up their contests.

"He knows he has to do well in New Hampshire, and yet there doesn't seem to be the kind of commitment to New Hampshire," said state Senator Lou D'Allesandro, the New Hampshire campaign chairman for Edwards in 2004. "It doesn't appear that he is as well organized on the ground as the others. And he's got to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire."

Edwards says he plans to "invest enormously" in New Hampshire in the coming months and hopes that victory in Iowa will propel him to the lead in New Hampshire, then Florida, South Carolina, and beyond to the nomination.

Still, he all but admits that failure to win in the Hawkeye State could mean the end of his presidential bid, which is why he has spent so much time in Iowa -- far more than his opponents. Some have commented that Edwards is campaigning as though he were running for governor instead of president.

Since January, Edwards has held 81 events in Iowa, compared with 36 in New Hampshire. That gap will widen this week as he barnstorms through 31 of Iowa's 99 counties.

Edwards has a campaign chairperson or organizer in each Iowa county and has about 100 staff members working in the state, about 25 more than last month. Last week, he added Jeff Link, one of the top Democratic operatives in Iowa, to his campaign as an adviser on message and strategy.

In New Hampshire, Edwards has about 50 staff members, no state chairman to lead the campaign, and in recent polls is running third or fourth behind Clinton, Obama, and in some polls Richardson.

Edwards also appears more attuned to Iowa in style and substance, political analysts say.

D'Allesandro said Edwards's Southern politeness goes over far better with audiences in Iowa than New Hampshire. Where people in Iowa see good manners, granite-boned voters in New Hampshire remain suspicious of the trial attorney who turned himself into a multimillionaire and an advocate for the poor.

"There is a bit of resistance and some cynicism here," said D'Allesandro, who has not yet endorsed a 2008 candidate.

That sentiment has not been improved by recent disclosures of Edwards's work for a hedge fund and his $400 haircuts, D'Allesandro said.

Moreover, Edwards faces an uphill battle trying to get his focus on poverty -- one of the key planks of his platform -- to resonate with voters in New Hampshire, which has one of the lowest poverty rates in the country.

But the 54-year-old former North Carolina senator, who wears blue jeans and a yellow "LIVESTRONG" rubber wristband to most campaign events, has hit a nerve in Iowa. In 2004, Edwards was the fresh face, and the nice guy who ran a campaign of optimism and avoided attacks on opponents.

As Edwards continued to visit Iowa, Peggy Rick, a 55-year-old teacher from Spirit Lake, said residents related to Edwards, who grew up in a small town, with little money, and was the first in his family to go to college.

While waiting for Edwards to arrive at the crowded library at Spirit Lake High School last week, Rick said, "He comes from a good, close family and you can see his connection to people. He seems really honest, and grounded, and down-to-earth."

It was this genial heartland appeal, plus the endorsement from the state's biggest newspaper, the Des Moines Register, that helped Edwards finish a surprising second in the 2004 caucus, a showing that put him on the political map and eventually on the Democratic ticket as John Kerry's vice presidential pick.

By contrast in New Hampshire's primary in 2004, Edwards took only 12 percent of the vote in a crowded field headed by New Englanders Howard Dean and Kerry.

But his comparative strength in Iowa does not mean victory in the caucuses will be easy. In recent weeks, both Clinton and Obama have stepped up visits to Iowa and scored key endorsements from local lawmakers and other leaders.

Competing with the money and celebrity of Clinton and Obama makes it especially tough for Edwards to preserve his base from 2004 and cultivate enough new supporters to win, said Dennis J. Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines.

This time around, Edwards's populist message is angrier and he has not shied from criticizing his competitors, going after Clinton, for instance, for accepting campaign money from lobbyists for special interests.

Edwards has also made a concerted effort to court the big labor vote, which mostly went to Dick Gephardt in 2004.

At a Teamsters rally in Sioux City last week, Edwards praised the cement truck drivers, who have been out of work since October, for their courage and talked about the importance of strengthening unions to help the middle class.

"Your struggle is very personal to me," Edwards said, adding that his parents and only brother would not have health insurance if it weren't for the unions.

Nodding his head in approval, Russ Johnson, one of the strike captains, said, "He knows where he came from, and he didn't forget where he came from."

Globe correspondent James Pindell contributed to this report. Jenn Abelson can be reached at abelson@globe.com.