Rove exit could launch new political strategy
WASHINGTON -- The departure of Karl Rove, the longtime adviser to President Bush who announced yesterday that he is leaving at the end of this month, could provide an opening for the White House and the Republican Party to move away from Rove's signature policy of relying on the party base and appeal more to independents who will probably determine the outcome of the 2008 election, analysts said yesterday.
While Bush and others have heralded Rove as the architect of Bush's 2000 victory and 2004 reelection, some GOP critics have derided him for failing to stop the Democrats from seizing control of Congress from Republicans in 2006. That reversal of fortune led some GOP activists to suggest that Rove -- a powerful political opera tive who once envisioned "permanent" Republican control in Washington -- had overrelied on the most conservative voters and ignored voters with more moderate views who can swing an election.
"It was pretty evident that following the same focus-on-the-base strategy wasn't going to work but they did it again in 2006," said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who is not allied with any presidential campaign. Unless the party draws more independent voters in 2008, he said, "it could be a horrible election for Republicans both congressionally and presidentially."
It is not clear, however, that Bush will forge a new path away from the influential adviser and friend of more than 30 years.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said it is "hard to say" if things will change at the White House when Rove leaves Aug. 31. "You won't have Karl Rove. He is an extraordinary presence in the White House," Snow said, stressing that Rove is "committed to the president. He is not operating independently or differently from what the president wants."
But Rove's aura, cultivated while guiding Bush from the Texas governorship in 1994 to the White House in 2004, has dimmed in the last two years.
He wrongly predicted that Republicans would retain control of Congress in 2006 despite growing national doubts about the Iraq war and Bush's low popularity. And Rove played a major role in two of Bush's recent domestic policy failures: the proposal to overhaul Social Security with private investment accounts and the effort to put illegal immigrants on a track toward citizenship.
Carl M. Cannon, coauthor of a Rove biography, "Boy Genius," said yesterday that Rove's true skill was in getting Bush elected, not helping him govern. As a result, Cannon said, Bush might benefit from Rove's absence in internal White House decision-making.
Noting that Rove, the deputy chief of staff, is subordinate to White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten, Cannon said that Rove nonetheless was perceived as having more sway with Bush. With Rove gone, he said, Bolten might be more likely to influence Bush to work with Democrats on domestic issues.
"You have this very capable guy, Josh Bolten, as chief of staff, and he was in Rove's shadow," said Cannon, White House correspondent for National Journal magazine. "He had the title of Rove's boss but he wasn't really his boss. They needed a shakeup. For Bush, I don't know that this is a bad thing. I don't think that Karl Rove was able to duplicate his skill in governing that he showed in politics."
Rove was subpoenaed in the investigation of the leaking of Valerie Plame Wilson's identity as a CIA officer -- a federal probe that led to the conviction of former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby. Rove, who testified five times before a grand jury, told the panel that he had forgotten he had talked with a reporter about Wilson but he denied he was the original source of the leak.
Most recently, Rove has been facing a congressional subpoena to testify about his role in the controversial firings of eight US attorneys, who White House critics contend were dismissed for not pursuing politically motivated prosecutions of Democrats.
Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Patrick J. Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who has been leading an investigation into the firings, said yesterday that Rove's departure will have "no legal effect" on congressional efforts to get Rove to testify about his role in the firings. Moreover, Leahy said, the committee has subpoenaed thousands of Rove's e-mails but the White House has indicated it will refuse to comply, citing executive privilege.
Rove "is probably the most emblematic of an administration that consistently thought it was above the law," Leahy said.
In a brief statement at the White House yesterday, Rove said that he and Bush have known one another for 34 years, and that serving with him in the White House "has been the joy and the honor of a lifetime." Bush praised Rove as his "dear friend."
A veteran political strategist, Rove, 56, has been celebrated in Republican circles for his ability to build conservative coalitions -- and his use of hardball tactics against his opponents, a powerful combination that helped send Bush to the White House twice and solidified GOP majorities in both houses of Congress in 2004.
As Bush's chief campaign engineer, Rove helped devise a strategy that characterized Bush as a "compassionate conservative," a plan that succeeded in the bitterly contested 2000 campaign against former Vice President Al Gore. In Bush's 2004 reelection campaign, he helped orchestrate huge conservative turnouts in "battleground states" such as Ohio, a key win that helped Bush surge past Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic presidential nominee.
But Democrats have long blasted Rove for what they call negative, divide-and-conquer strategies that tear down an opponent and split the electorate. Kerry, who bore the brunt of Rove's tough tactics in 2004, said yesterday in a statement that the country's polarization "proved the politics of division may win some elections but cannot govern America."
In an interview published yesterday, Rove told The Wall Street Journal that "I just think it's time" to leave, saying that he and his wife wanted to move back to Texas to be closer to their son, a college student in San Antonio. Rove said that he has Bush's blessing to write a book about his White House experiences.
Ron Kaufman, the Massachusetts Republican operative who is close to Rove and the Bush family, said yesterday that Bush's two presidential victories secured Rove's legacy. But he said that it is unlikely that Rove, who derived so much from his association with Bush, would have such influence in the future.
"People are genuinely thankful and respectful of Rove," said Kaufman, who is advising Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. "But I also think people realize that one of Rove's strengths is the ability to get inside [Bush's] head." 