Michigan set to send slate of primaries into revision
N.H. mulls way to remain first
Michigan appears poised to crash the party of early states seeking to influence the 2008 presidential nominating process, leapfrogging the other interlopers, Florida and South Carolina, and further scrambling the electoral calendar.
If leaders of Michigan's political parties reach agreement, as early as tomorrow, on joint Jan. 15 primaries, New Hampshire and Iowa, the traditional leadoff states, would be forced to set earlier contests to preserve their coveted status.
New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary would be moved to Jan. 8 at the latest because state law says that Secretary of State William M. Gardner must set the contest at least seven days ahead of the next primary.
Gardner, who has countered maneuverings by many other states to encroach on the Granite State's turf in other presidential election years, declined to say yesterday when he will set the primary or what date it would be. But he stressed that New Hampshire will retain its unique place in American presidential politics
"It's one of the last pieces of the puzzle, if not the last," he said of Michigan's move.
An earlier Granite State contest would then push Iowa, the first caucus state, into early January or even December.
State law there requires at least eight days between its contest and New Hampshire primary, but Iowa Secretary of State Michael A. Mauro said yesterday that his state could waive that required interval to avoid holding caucuses on New Year's Eve or earlier, during this year's holiday season.
Iowa "will do whatever it takes to maintain our status and keep it in January, if at all possible," he told the Globe in a telephone interview.
"We have to wait and see what New Hampshire does," said Mauro, who advises the state's parties, which schedule and conduct the caucuses. "It could be we will have to go to the second or third [of January]."
That would, however, end the tradition of Monday night caucuses.
Mauro said he is confident that Gardner will continue the long-term cooperation between Iowa and New Hampshire. Gardner "doesn't want to see Iowa get pushed into a corner because it's important to maintain the traditions," Mauro said.
The Michigan move would further accelerate sweeping changes in the election calendar that could lead to the selection of the major-party nominees earlier than ever before. In 2000, for instance, about 2 percent of nominating convention delegates were selected by early February. In this election cycle, more than 40 percent could be committed because big states including California, New Jersey, and New York have moved their contests to what has been dubbed Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5.
The front-loaded schedule, most political analysts agree, makes it even more important for candidates to raise large sums of money, tends to help established front-runners, and makes it much more difficult for a lesser-known candidate to break out from the pack.
Looming over the moves to elbow into the early-contest spotlight are the Democratic and Republican national committees, which have established penalties for states that jump ahead of Feb. 5, when about 20 states could hold primaries or caucuses.
The Democratic presidential campaigns, in particular, will be watching their national committee response as they plot strategies to adapt to the shifting schedule of contests. Under party rules, candidates could forfeit all delegates earned in states that violate the party calendar if they campaign there.
Delegate-rich Florida will be on the agenda Saturday when the DNC's rules and bylaws committee is scheduled to meet in Washington, DNC spokeswoman Stacie Paxton said. In May, the state legislature and governor set Jan. 29 primaries for both parties in violation of the calendar set by the party.
If Florida is found in noncompliance, under the rules it would lose 118 of its projected 210 delegates to the party's national convention next year. Michigan, if it changes its schedule, could face similar sanctions, losing 93 of its 157 delegates. Combined, the two big states are allocated one-twelfth of the projected 4,362 delegates for the convention in Denver next August.
"The party wants to ensure a fair and predictable process," Paxton said of the rules governing delegate selection.
The calendar set by the DNC called for Iowa to hold its caucuses on Jan. 14 and New Hampshire to hold its primary on Jan. 22, preserving their respective roles in the process, but added Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19 and a South Carolina primary on Jan. 29 to increase regional and ethnic diversity in the pre-Feb. 5 window.
But the threat of sanctions has not stopped states from moving up in the schedule to gain more clout.
On Aug. 9, the South Carolina Republican Party, responding to Florida, accelerated the calendar shifts by moving up its primary from Feb. 2 to Jan. 19 to jump back ahead of Florida and preserve its first-in-the-South tradition in GOP politics, a status it has held since 1980. Under Republican National Committee rules, any state with a contest before Feb. 5, including New Hampshire and Iowa, is supposed to lose delegates to next year's convention in Minneapolis. There are no separate penalties for candidates, however.
In Michigan, officials of both parties confirmed yesterday that negotiations are continuing, but not finalized on a bill to move up the state's primary. It is scheduled for Feb. 26, but Republicans and Democrats had been talking about early February.
"Both sides continue to talk, and we believe we'll have a resolution soon," said Matt Marsden, spokesman for Michigan Senate majority leader Michael D. Bishop, a Republican.
Michigan Democrats, led by US Senator Carl Levin, intensified the push for an earlier primary date after Florida leapt ahead of the Feb. 5 cutoff date set by the national party.
"Although going on Jan. 15th is not our first choice, we will join with the Democrats and hold our primary on the same day," Michigan GOP Chairman Saulius "Saul" Anuzis said in a statement Friday. "This puts Michigan front and center in the presidential battleground."
In the latest Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll, released last week, undeclared candidates were the top choice of likely primary voters -- former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson among Republicans and former Vice President Al Gore among Democrats. Among announced candidates, Senator Hillary Clinton led Democrats and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field. Mitt Romney, who grew up in Michigan and whose father was governor, was tied for second place with Senator John McCain. 